Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.399 | EURUSD 1.13184 | AUDUSD 0.76486 | NZDUSD 0.68477 | USDCAD 1.29759 | USDCHF 0.96748 | GBPUSD 1.44831 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13313 | 1.13065
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.574 | 110.822
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.44958 | 1.44548
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76807 | 0.76340
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96802 | 0.96558
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30013 | 1.29691
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68745 | 0.68286
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78294 | 0.78119
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 126.200 | 125.510
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09468 | 1.09355
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For Today
- EUR: A rather dull day with volumes slightly below the norm and the Euro holding quietly through to the Tokyo opening before having a small move towards the 1.1300 levels from the opening around the 1.1320 areas, Tokyo were steady buyers of the Euro as the USDJPY dropped quickly however once the USD stabilised the Euro started to move away the 1.1335 highs and back into the opening levels and then to the lows into the grey hours. Topside offers through the 1.1330 areas and likely to continue through to the 1.1350-60 areas before weakness appears and at this point it’s how much impetus there is in the market for a push through the 1.1400 levels and ranges from the end of last year. Downside bids light but building through the 1.1220 areas however, weak stops are likely to appear on a move through the 1.1200 levels and the downside is then open for further dips.
- GBP: A similar pattern over the session for the Cable as with the Euro, opening around the 1.4480 levels the market moved into the Tokyo session testing towards the 1.4500 levels however, before drifting off from the highs to fall back to the 1.4460 levels to hold into the grey hours. Topside offers into the 1.4500 level and likely to extend a little way through before the market opens for a test to the 1.4600 areas and stronger offers, Downside bids light through to the 1.4400 levels and the with the market possibly open for a quick move lower and slightly strong bids into 1.4300 levels.
- JPY: A quiet session for the USDJPY with the market opening around the 111.40 levels and seeing some quick selling into the Tokyo session to test below the 111.00 and slipping to the 111.80 areas before bouncing back higher and back towards those opening levels into the grey hours. Light offers into the 112.00 levels and then the market open to a small squeeze and the 113.00 stronger offers appearing, downside bids into the 110.50 areas and but beyond the lows of this year, with better bids likely to towards the 110.00 areas and the Sep/Oct ranges with limited congestion.
- AUD: Early highs into the Tokyo session saw the market test to the 0.7680 levels before slipping back steadily to the opening areas and the 0.7640 levels for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 0.7680-0.7700 levels with the market likely to run into congestion through the level and possibly a struggle to the 0.7800 areas, downside bids light through the 75 cent levels and the market likely to see mixed reactions on a break through however, any further weakness to the 74 cent area could see strong selling moving in to test to the strong support areas around 73 cent.
Overnight News
JPY:
Japan’s Abe Mulls Delaying Consumption Tax Hike, Yomiuri Says
JPY: All Who Agreed on BOJ Neg. Rate Said Can Be Cut More if Needed
JPY: Japan’s Aso Says Watching Financial Market Movements
JPY: Japan’s 10-Year Bond Yield Falls to Record Minus 0.135%
JPY: Japan Should Postpone Sales Tax Sooner, Not Later: Roubini
KRW:
- Korea Fires Ballistic Missile into East Sea: Yonhap
- Korea Missile May Have Fallen Into Japan Air Zone: Yonhap
- Korea’s Second Missile May Have Exploded in Air: Yonhap
CNY:
PBOC Raises Yuan Fixing O.51%, Most Since November
USD/CNY:
U.S. Sees New Chinese Activity Around S. China Sea Shoal:Reuters
AUD:
RBA’s Ellis: Policy Can Make Boom-Bust Distress less Frequent
NZD:
N.Z. Consumer Confidence Gauge Falls For a Second Month: ANZ
EUR:
Euro Area Reform Efforts Fading, Political Risks Rising: Moody’s
Hollande Sees Risk of Deflation in Euro Area
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Minutes
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Feb C -0.20% | P -0.70%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Feb C -2.60% | P -2.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jan C 0.80% | P -2.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jan C 0.70% | P -1.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Feb C 2.00% | P 2.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core M/M Feb C 0.50% | P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core Y/Y Feb C 2.00% | P 2.00%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Mar (P) C 92 | P 91.7
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: The move through to the London session saw the moving sideways with very little movement in the market dipping to the 1.1210 levels and holding in the 1.1210-20 levels to the grey hours, early London started to buy and the market was able to make quick headway through the 1.1250 levels with weak stops pushing the market to the 1.1280 areas with little problem, the move through the 1.1300 levels saw strong stops triggered and the highs posted above the 1.1340 level before then performing a steady drift through the balance of the session with the market having adjusted to the current FOMC release.
- GBP: The Cable was no different to the Euro for the most part with the Asian session seeing the range a little wider, Cable opened around the 1.4250 levels and made early highs into the 1.4290 areas before drifting lower to the grey hours, the move into the London session saw the market moving off its lows around the 1.4220 areas and steadily moving back to the opening levels pushing into the official opening back towards those highs from early in the Asian session, the release of the Eurozone numbers saw the GBP lose a little ground however the rise continued through the 1.4300 levels and tested through the 1.4350 levels with stops being triggered before running into some resistance before the BoE release, with no change for the foreseeable future for the UK interest rate the market again started to rise and this time EURGBP was being actively sold and helping the Cable higher through the 1.4450 areas to test to the 1.4500 level and stronger offers before running close to the level for the rest of the session to the close drifting only a little after a strong performance.
- JPY: USDJPY moved slightly higher from the opening around the 112.60 areas to initially test towards the 113.00 levels through into the Tokyo session, however, the market was unable to push through the level during the period and steadily started to slip gradually lower and moving into the grey hours testing the 112.00 levels, early London were quick sellers of USD across the board and the USDJPY moved through to a weak holding range into the early London session between the 111.60-80 areas before giving further ground to the 111.20 areas however, the failure to hold this level into the NYK session opening saw stops triggered on a move into the 110.60 levels with a quick bounce back as the market quickly became overdone and the suddenly short market makers quickly attempting to cover to chase the market to the 112.00 level, the remainder of the day was a little choppy however, the market eventually settled down to trade the 111.40-60 levels to the close as the action slowed.
- AUD: Early trading was dominated by a quick run on the Crude oil with the Oz quickly moving to the 0.7620 areas into the Tokyo session and then never returning to the opening 0.7560 areas, Tokyo was then quiet with the market trading around the 0.7600 areas into the grey hours, as with everything else a quick sell off in the USD saw the Oz push to the 0.7650 levels and into the offers however, even into the London session it was unable to push through comfortably and held the 0.7620-50 range into the NYK session, futures sellers dominated the early sessions in the US and the market again tested back to the 76 cent level however, the USD was weak against most currencies through the session and it was only a matter of time before the Oz started to push back to the 0.7650 levels and into a long drawn out evening session around that level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.90% | C 0.70% | P 0.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Feb A 0.17T | C 0.24T | P 0.12T | R 0.07T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Feb A 0.3K | C 12.3K | P -7.9K | R -7.4K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb A 5.80% | C 6.00% | P 6.00%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SECO March 2016 Economic Forecasts
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Feb A 0.60% | C 0.20% | P -0.40%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Feb A -4.60% | P -5.30%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range A -0.25% | C -0.25% | P -0.25%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate A -0.75% | C -0.75% | P -0.75%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range A -1.25% | C -1.25% | P -1.25%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jan A 21.2B | C 20.2B | P 21.0B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P -1.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Feb (F) A -0.20% | C -0.20% | P -0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Feb (F) A 0.80% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target A 375B | C 375B | P 375B
GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes A 0–0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes A 0–0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0—9
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Sales M/M Jan A 0.00% | C 0.30% | P 2.00% | R 1.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance Q4 A -125B | C -115B | P -124B | R -130B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey Mar A 12.4 | C -0.5 | P -2.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 12) A 265K | C 267K | P 259K | R 258K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Feb A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.20%
Good Luck,
Andy
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