Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.892 | EURUSD 1.11744 | AUDUSD 0.75269 | NZDUSD 0.67019 | USDCAD 1.32482 | USDCHF 0.97574 | GBPUSD 1.41527 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11809 | 1.11525
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.329 | 112.748
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.41568 | 1.41079
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75356 | 0.75082
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97876 | 0.97599
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32642 | 1.32271
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.67042 | 0.66801
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79087 | 0.78944
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 126.478 | 125.968
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09172 | 1.08880
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For Today
- EUR: Very quiet into the Easter holidays with volumes greatly reduced, the market opened around the 1.1175 levels and move quietly towards the Tokyo session and the Euro moved quickly to test into the 1.1160 levels before finding some support the market has tested a little lower however, the market has held through the balance of the session along that level through to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.1180 areas and while the market could push through the 1.1220 areas it being Easter in Europe the chances are probably slim, Downside bids through to the 1.1140 levels with a mixture below until stronger bids start to appear around the 1.1120 onwards.
- GBP: USD rally from the opening into Tokyo with the Oz and NZ (nice flag) markets remained closed for the day saw the Cable quickly dip to the 1.4125 levels from the opening above 1.4155 areas the market did see some fluctuation into early Tokyo however, it was more to do liquidity and eventually settled back to trading around the 1.4115 level for a great period of time before pushing a little higher as the market runs into the grey hours. Topside offers light through the 1.4150 levels before increasing into the 1.4180 areas and unlikely to push through 1.4200, but stranger things happen at sea, Downside bids limited to the 1.4100 and for the moment the rejection at 1.4050 will have a bearing on further weakness through the Easter period.
- JPY: USDJPY buying into Tokyo saw the market move quickly away from the 112.80 levels and testing to the 113.30 area before the market ran out of steam in a limited market and drifted back to trade around the 113.10 levels through to the grey hour period and the limited market for the day. Topside offers from the current overs are likely to be light but constant through to the 113.80 levels where the likelihood of stronger offers appear. Downside bids into the 112.50 levels are light and open to the 112.00 areas where they are likely to be strong enough to hold the market with those bids likely to run through to 111.80 before any weakness.
- AUD: The bank holiday upon the markets in Oz and NZ the market has been particularly quiet in those currencies opening around the 0.7530 area the move of the USDJPY eventually pressured the Oz lower trading down to the 0.7510 areas before a quiet rise through the session to just below the opening, Topside offers likely into the 0.7540 level and through to 0.7560 with the markets becalmed by the holidays the likelihood of pushing into stronger offers around the 76 cent level are slight at best. Downside bids through the 0.7500 levels are likely to be a little stronger and only a move through to the 0.7460 levels is likely to threaten any further downside potential.
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Feb A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar A -0.30% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q4 (T) C 1.00% | P 1.00%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q4 (T) C 0.90% | P 0.90%
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: As the markets head to the Easter break the Euro had a very narrow range overall, trading from the opening 1.1180 levels the market struggled into the Tokyo session to see the USDJPY trading quickly higher after the release of the summary to March’s BoJ meeting, the Euro’s dipped to the 1.1165 and then traded quietly through to the grey hours, early London selling saw the market test to the 1.1115 levels for the first time with a dip in consumer confidence in Germany, the failure to the downside saw the market bounce back towards the opening levels to slightly higher as the market moved on the ECB Economic bulletin, however the rally was short lived and the move into NYK soon saw the lows tested again and a less aggressive bounce on the failure, NYK saw the USD giving ground through the session and again the Euro gradually pushed to the highs and finished almost unchanged on the day.
- GBP: Cable dipped from the opening 1.4115 levels into the Tokyo session as the USDJPY pushed quickly higher, from there though the market marked time trading in a narrow 1.4090-1.4100 level through to the grey hours, with the 1.4050 so close the early London market dipped on strong selling and the move into the official session saw the Cable quickly trade towards the level, support and a better than expected retail sales number saw the market move away from the level making a steady recovery to the 1.4100 level and then pushing through weak stops to test above the 1.4140 levels and holding steady through to the NYK session, NYK itself attempted to short the market however, there was little in the move and once the initial selling disappeared the Cable again started to steadily rise through the session to eventually test through the 1.4180 levels and into light offers sufficient in a quiet market to hold the levels and force the market back to the 1.4150 levels into the close, EURGBP buying into the early London session saw some strong buying In EURGBP matching the move to the 1.4050 line in Cable before collapsing back and pushing back through the 0.7900 areas from the attempt at 0.7945, the cross dipped into the close in London to make the lows below 0.7885 before finishing the day around the 0.7900 areas.
- JPY: Opening quietly the market moved along the 112.35 level through into the Tokyo session, dipping to the 112.30 levels before rallying sharply after a summary of the March BoJ meeting was released, the item of interest was the heated debate on repealing the negative rates, which have seen the USDJPY fall from the 122.00 to the 111.00 levels, this caused a quick move to the 112.70 slowly extending those highs through to the grey hours to test above 113.00 before finally running out of steam and drifting through the London session to drift back to the opening levels, with the Easter holidays upon the market the action slowed into the NYK session, before starting a slow but steady climb back towards the 112.90 levels to finish around the 112.80 areas.
- AUD: The Oz opened around the 0.7530 levels and struggled quietly into the Tokyo session the sudden movement in USDJPY initially sent the Oz lower, touching the 0.7490 levels before bouncing with AUDJPY carry trades moving in on the market however, the weak bounce to the 0.7515 areas was all it could manage before slipping slowly lower into the grey hours, Early London slowly bought back from those lows and the market struggled around the 75 cent levels before slowly rising once the numbers were tucked away, the move through the NYK session saw the market slowly rising but with very little interest overall to push back to those opening levels.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Feb A 339M | C 75M | P 8M
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Sentiment Apr A 9.4 | P 9.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Feb A -0.40% | C -1.00% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals Feb A 45.9K | C 47.8K | P 47.5K | R 46.9K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Realized Sales A 7 | C 12 | P 10
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 19) A 265K | C 267K | P 265K | R 259K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Feb (P) A -2.80% | C -2.50% | P 4.70% | R 4.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Feb (P) A -1.00% | C 0.00% | P 1.70% | R 1.20%
Good Luck,
Andy
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