Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close Wellington open

USDJPY 113.066 113.05-19 | EURUSD 1.11666 1.1160-72 | AUDUSD 0.75068 0.7499-0.7509 | NZDUSD 0.66849 0.6674-99 | USDCAD 1.32674 1.3256-86 | USDCHF 0.97725 0.9735-88 | GBPUSD 1.41375 1.4119-45 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am London time

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.11710 | 1.11527

USDJPY                 113.689 | 113.134

GBPUSD               1.41398 | 1.41201

USDCHF               0.97851 | 0.97708

AUDUSD              0.75186 | 0.74936
USDCAD               1.32857 | 1.32507

NZDUSD               0.66879 | 0.66683

EURCHF                1.09218 | 1.09075

EURGBP               0.79019 | 0.78922

EURJPY                 126.858 | 126.277

 

For today

  • EUR: Very tight ranges as the Easter break continues into the new week, with the Euro opening around the 1.1165 areas and testing into the mid 50’s before returning to the opening levels into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.1180 areas remain through to the 1.1220 level and some numbers into the US session could test those levels but the day is likely to be quiet. Downside bids through the lows and into the 1.1140 levels, likely to increase into the 1.1100 areas.
  • GBP: Patchy at best and only a slightly better range in the Cable, moving from the opening around the 1.4130 levels the market testing the 1.4120 levels through into Tokyo before rising back to just above the 1.4135 levels towards the grey hours having hit the 1.4140 shortly after the opening, topside offers into the 1.4150 areas and likely to increase to the 1.4200 areas, with the better offers much higher around the 1.4300 levels, downside bids limited into the 1.4100 level with better bids likely into the 1.4050 areas.
  • JPY: USDJPY saw steady buying through the session moving from the 113.10 levels to test to the 113.70 before running out of energy and drifting back to the 113.50 levels into the grey hours, Topside is likely to be weak until the market tests towards the 114.00 with the Europeans still out for the day the US numbers will dominate the day for the USDJPY, downside bids through the 113.00 level are likely to continue into 112.50 with better bids into the 112.00 before any weakness is likely to appear.
  • AUD: Quiet but a choppy in a limited range with liquidity suffering through market holidays, opening around the 0.7505 the market has seen a spike towards the 0.7520 level and a test below 0.7500 for brief periods but nothing to exciting, Topside offers through the 0.7540-60 if broken expose another test through the 76 cent level however, possibly not today and down to US numbers later in the session, Downside has light bids through the current lows and likely to continue in the same manner towards the 74 cent level.

 

Overnight News

JPY:

Japan’s Abe to Announce Sales Tax Increase Delay in May: Sankei

Japan Suga: Not true govt decided to delay sales tax hike

Japanese Public Support for Fiscal Stimulus Rises: Nikkei

Sharp: Aiming to Reach Agreement w/ Foxconn As Soon As Possible

Japanese Support for PM Abe’s Cabinet Rises to 48%: Kyodo

USD:

Fed’s Williams Sees Uncertainty About Global Developments: CNBC

CNY:

China Requires More Disclosure for NPL-Backed ABS: Daily

China Should Cut Individual Income Tax: Securities News

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

12:30     USD       Trade Balance Feb C -62.3B | P -62.2B

12:30     USD       Personal Income Feb C 0.10% | P 0.50%

12:30     USD       Personal Spending Feb C 0.20% | P 0.50%

12:30     USD       PCE Core M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.30%

12:30     USD       PCE Core Y/Y Feb P 1.70%

14:00     USD       Pending Home Sales M/M Feb C 1.20% | P -2.50%

 

Weekend News

JPY:

Abe Plans New  Stimulus, Budget Front-Loading, Nikkei Says
Japan’s Economy WJapaneakening 26% of Business Leaders Say: Nikkei
Hon Hai, Sharp Said to Agree to Trim Bailout: Nikkei
JPY/CNY/KRW:

Japan Plans Anti-Dumping Duty on China, Korea Chemical: Nikkei
CNY:

China Jan.-Feb. Industrial Profit Rises 4.8% Y/y
China Can Achieve Growth Target, Ex-World Bank Economist Says
China Should Increase Yuan’s Flexibility, CASS Researcher Says
GBP:

Campaign Backing `Brexit’ Adds 250 Business Executives
USD:

Sanders Topples Clinton in Washington State, Alaskan Votes
Islamic State Leader’s Killing Boosts Terror Fight: Carter
EUR:

Brussels Terror Suspect Charged Amid Fears of More Attacks
Hollande Says Paris Terrorism Network Is Being Destroyed: AFP
EU Likely to Push Back June Summit to Avoid U.K. Vote Overlap
Arrests in Germany Not Linked to Brussels Attacks, DPA Reports
NZD:

Fonterra’s Wilson Sees Slowing Growth in N.Z. Dairy Conversions
HKD:

Hong Kong May Join Asian Infrastructure Bank in 2016, Post Says
TRY:

Turkey Police Issue Threat of IS attacks on Christians, Jews: HDN
RUB:

Russia to Exempt Loans to Exporters From Higher Risk Ratio

 

Harry Hindsight

With much of the markets closed the ranges were very tight for the most part with early USD buying into the Tokyo session setting the bulk of those ranges, and not increasing through to the close.

 

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

23:30     JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Feb A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%

23:30     JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar A -0.30% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%

23:50     JPY         Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%

12:30     USD       GDP (Annualized) Q4 (T) A 1.40% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%

12:30     USD       GDP Price Index Q4 (T) A 0.90% | C 0.90% | P 0.90%

 

Stay lucky

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.