Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.339 | EURUSD 1.12743 | AUDUSD 0.76528 | NZDUSD 0.69233 | USDCAD 1.28165 | USDCHF 0.9669 | GBPUSD 1.42048 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.12843 | 1.12535

USDJPY                 109.546 | 109.291

GBPUSD               1.42100 | 1.41374

AUDUSD              0.76648 | 0.76198

USDCHF               0.96798 | 0.96631

USDCAD               1.28761 | 1.28077

NZDUSD               0.69226 | 0.68370

EURGBP               0.79685 | 0.79380

EURJPY                 123.426 | 123.142

EURCHF                1.09043 | 1.08891

 

For Today

• EUR: A quiet drift lower into the 1.1250 areas through the first half of the Tokyo session set the lows before trading around the 1.1260 levels in quiet trading for the Euro, Topside offers likely into the 1.1300 areas with weak stops on a push through the 1.1330 areas with possibly better offers then appearing around the 1.1350 levels, nothing spectacular expected for the day with CPI expected to be better than previous however, this could disappoint in the end and leave the downside vulnerable, Downside bids into the 1.1240 areas with better bids into the 1.1220-00 areas, weak stops a possibility with a move through the level and better bids likely to appear in the 1.1160-40 areas before weakness appears.
• GBP: Strong selling in front of the BoE release later today saw the Cable dropping back through to the 1.4140 levels having opened above the 1.4200 level, EURGBP was no different with the cross actively bought through the session to push back towards the 0.7970 areas and holding just below into the grey hours, Topside offers in Cable light through the 1.4200 levels with better offers likely into the 1.4250-80 areas and only once the market break through here will the 1.4300 again be challenged with weak stops likely through the level and stronger offers into the 1.4350 area.
• JPY: Lacklustre day after a busy couple of days saw the USDJPY lifting from the opening and moving into the Tokyo session pushing towards the 109.50 levels, before dropping back as commentary started to move into the market as officials talked of the strong JPY effecting the Japanese Co. the market remained for the most part in the 109.40-50 areas, Topside offers into the 109.60 levels and likely to continue into the 109.80-90 levels a push through the 110.00 levels will see a little congestion through to the 110.50 areas however from there the 111.00 becomes very vulnerable to a quick move higher, Downside bids light through to the 109.00 areas and a push through the 108.70 level will see the market likely to test back to the stronger 108.00 areas with bids increasing on any move below the area, only a break below the 107.60 area is likely to cause any problems with weak stops appearing quickly and the 107.00 level very vulnerable.
• AUD: Mixed day for the Oz with early trading seeing the Oz steadily rise from the 0.7650 levels to push into the mid 0.7660 areas, the release of consumer inflation numbers and then employ figure saw the market testing lower to the 0.7630 level before spiking and then dropping back to 0.7620 as the knee jerk reaction kicked in to be replaced by the market dipping as the details became more apparent and weaker composition showing a better picture, the market eventually pushed off the lows moving steadily higher the remainder of the session to move into the grey hour little changed, Topside offers through the 77 cent level likely to remain strong and for the moment containing the topside US numbers could have an impact however, the market has been quiet for several days and the market could see further weakness before challenging that level again, Downside bids light through the current lows and while better bids probably hold around the 76 cent level weak stops are likely to lurk below the levels and the market could open for a gradual move lower to test the 0.7540-00 areas late in the day.

Overnight News

EM:

Emerging currencies slump after Singapore eases monetary policy

JPY:

Japan considering how to finance more infrastructure, Suga

Kuroda says markets would have been worse without negative rates

AUD:

Australia debt will rise without revenue measures, Moody’s warns

CNY:

China defaults prompt issuers to pull out of 34.1B Yuan of bond sales

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Business NZ Manufacturing Index Mar A 54.7 | P 56 | R 55.9

GBP       RICS House Price Balance Mar A 42% | C 51% | P 50%

AUD       Consumer Inflation Expectation Apr A 3.60% | P 3.40%

AUD       Employment Change Mar A 26.1K | C 18.6K | P 0.3K

AUD       Unemployment Rate Mar A 5.70% | C 5.90% | P 5.80%

07:15     CHF        Producer & Import Prices M/M Mar C -0.20% | P -0.60%

07:15     CHF        Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Mar P -4.60%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI M/M Mar C 1.20% | P 0.20%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Y/Y Mar (F) C 0.10% | P -0.10%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Mar (F) C 1.00% | P 1.00%

11:00     GBP       BoE Rate Decision C 0.50% | P 0.50%

11:00     GBP       BoE Asset Purchase Target Apr C 375B | P 375B

11:00     GBP       MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9

11:00     GBP       MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9

12:30     CAD       New Housing Price Index M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.10%

12:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (APR 9) C 270K | P 267K

12:30     USD       CPI M/M Mar C 0.20% | P -0.20%

12:30     USD       CPI Y/Y Mar C 1.10% | P 1.00%

12:30     USD       CPI Core M/M Mar C 0.20% | P 0.30%

12:30     USD       CPI Core Y/Y Mar C 2.20% | P 2.30%

Harry Hindsight              

• EUR: Euro’s slipped steadily lower through the Asian session, opening around the 1.1390 areas the market slowly drifted through the session down to the 1.1350 levels into the London opening, better Eurozone IP numbers did very little to bolster the Euro and the market pushed through the 1.1340 levels triggering some weak stops before holding around the 1.1300-20 areas into the NYK session, retail sales in the US saw a the market attempting to rally but followed by better inventory numbers again saw the USD push a little higher and the Euro dropping to the 1.1280 levels for a long range play to the close with the market moving around the level.
• GBP: Cable managed to trade a little higher during the TKY session touching the 1.4280 areas before slipping back into the 1.4260 levels and the opening range, the move through the grey hours and the falling Euro dragging on the Cable, EURGBP drifted lower in early Tokyo from the 0.7985 areas to hold for the most part around the 0.7970 levels, the move into the London session through saw the cross drop quickly from the 0.7980 areas to trade weakly around the 0.7950 as the Euro dropped the move continuing into the NYK opening and testing to 0.7925 and ranging for the day between the low and 0.7950, Cable managed to hold the 1.4200 levels once the drag of the Euro was accounted for and although there were small breaks the Cable drifted to a close not far off the lows.
• JPY: USDJPY continued to rally through the session, pushing from the opening around the 108.50 areas to steadily touch through the 109.00 level into the London session, light profit taking saw the market dip only slightly before continuing through to the 109.30 levels triggering some weak stops and then holding for the NYK opening, weaker retail sales in the US saw another minor dip to the 109.10 areas however, the market steadily recovered once that number was out of the way and pushed to a high just above the 109.40 levels before slowly finishing the day around the 109.30 levels.
• AUD: Opening around the 0.7685 areas the market drifted into the Tokyo session and the release of the Consumer confidence numbers, weaker than expected saw the market dip back to the 0.7670 levels and then slowly recover into the CNY trade balance numbers, a strong export number helped the Oz rally quickly towards the 0.7720 levels before slipping back a little into the grey hours, the move into the London session saw strong selling moving into the market as the USD started to strengthen and once the London session was in full flow the Oz tipped back to the 0.7650 levels before ranging for the rest of the session around that level in a tight range.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Mar A 3.20% | C 3.10% | P 3.10%

JPY         Domestic CGPI Y/Y Mar A -3.80% | C -3.50% | P -3.40%

AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence Apr A -4.00% | P -2.20%

CNY        Trade Balance Mar A 29.9B | C 34.9B | P 32.6B

EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Feb A -0.80% | C -0.60% | P 2.10% | R 1.90%

USD       Advance Retail Sales Mar A -0.30% | C 0.10% | P -0.10%

USD       Retail Sales Less Autos Mar A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P -0.10%

USD       PPI M/M Mar A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.20%

USD       PPI Y/Y Mar A -0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.00%

USD       PPI Core M/M Mar A -0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%

USD       PPI Core Y/Y Mar A 1.00% | C 1.10% | P 1.20%

CAD       BoC Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%

USD       Business Inventories Feb A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.10%

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 6.6M | C 0.9M | P -4.9M

Good Luck,

Andy

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