Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close Wellington open

USDJPY 108.765 108.20-40 | EURUSD 1.12839 1.1280-1.1300 | AUDUSD 0.77242 0.7635-45 | NZDUSD 0.69184 0.6860-80 | USDCAD 1.28166 1.2920-50 | USDCHF 0.9679 0.9650-90 | GBPUSD 1.42039 1.4200-25 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am London time

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.13070 | 1.12761

USDJPY                 108.500 | 107.836

GBPUSD               1.42066 | 1.41632

USDCHF               0.96749 | 0.96461

AUDUSD              0.76765 | 0.76310
USDCAD               1.29855 | 1.29100

NZDUSD               0.69302 | 0.68422

EURCHF                1.09234 | 1.09114

EURGBP               0.79736 | 0.79754

EURJPY                 122.466 | 121.712

For today

• EUR: The failure of negotiations between the 16 oil producer in Doha saw varying degrees of movement on the opening with the Euro opening around the 1.1300 levels before filling the gap on the charts and trading quietly in a 10 pip range to late in the session when the market managed to break to the 1.1280 areas for the move into the grey hours, light offers into the 1.1320 levels and likely to see weak stops through the level before the stronger offers into the 1.1400 areas, little data for the day and the market relying probably on comments on Brexit and any further easing talk. Downside bids light through to the 1.1260-40 areas and possibly improving into the 1.1220-00 areas, with a possibility of weak stops through the 1.1180 areas and opening the market to a test through to the 1.1100 areas.
• GBP: Cable opened lower below the 1.4200 levels and the market drifted through the session to trade back to the 1.4165 levels and the EURGBP back to the higher end of Fridays, ranges, Topside offers through the 1.4240 levels and into 1.4250 are likely to be weaker with better offers possibly into the 1.4300 levels however, with little data the market is likely to be reasonably quiet and dependent on further movement in the Crude and comments on Brexit, Downside bids through the 1.4150 levels slowly increase to the 1.4100 levels and then build to the 1.4050 areas with stops likely if the market can break through the 1.4000 areas.
• JPY: USDJPY opened around the 108.20 areas and some 60 pips from Fridays close, the market struggled from the opening and only managed meagre gains into the Tokyo session before the USD was again under pressure and the USDJPY fell back from above the 108.40 levels and through the 108.00 levels to hold above the 107.80 areas and then range through to the grey hours holding weakly above, Downside bids likely to run down to the 107.50 areas before some weakness shows however, through the level is likely to see stops appearing and the market opening for a deeper test towards the 106.00 levels. Topside offers light through the 108.00 levels and continuing to the 108.80 before better offers are likely to appear, with light congestion likely to continue through to the 109.70 areas.
• AUD: Weakness in the Oil market on the failure of negotiations in Doha saw commodity currencies particularly impacted from the opening with the Oz opening som 60 pips lower and trading quietly into the Tokyo session before again moving quickly lower to the 0.7630 levels before stabilising and trading slowly back to the opening areas, Topside offers are light into the 0.7700 areas and likely to increase on any attempt to the 0.7730 areas with weak stops above that level, Downside bids are not particularly strong into the 76 cent level and a move through the 0.7580 level will likely to open up a tests of the 75 cent level.

Overnight News

JPY:

Japan PM Abe: Want to designate quake-hit southern region as disaster area

Japan’s Abe: Want to Use Various Tools for Disaster Relief

EUR:

Greece Hasn’t Accepted Extra Measures Proposal: Govt. Official

Schaueble Sees Deal with Greece Over Reforms Next Week: Bild

SGD:

Singapore March Non-Oil Domestic Exports -15.6% Y/y; Est. -12.3%

CNY:

China March New Home Prices Rise M/m in 62 Cities

NZD:

New Zealand First-Quarter CPI Rises 0.2% on Tobacco Prices

RBNZ 1Q Sectoral Factor Model Inflation Index Rises 1.6% Y/Y

JPY/IDR:

Japan Offers $3b Loan to Build Indonesia’s Patimban Port: Kontan

GBP:

U.K. April House Prices Rise 1.3% M/m, Rightmove Says

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       CPI Q/Q Q1 A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P -0.50%

GBP       Rightmove House Prices M/M Apr A 1.30% | P 1.30%

12:30     CAD       International Securities Transactions (CAD) Feb C 7.52B | P 13.51B

14:00     USD       NAHB Housing Market Index Apr C 59 | P 58

Weekend News

JPY:

Japan Gets Little G-20 Support for Possible Yen Intervention
Kuroda: BOJ Monitoring Markets, Won’t Hesitate to Act If Needed
Japan Official: Recent Yen Moves Excessive, Will Act If Needed
Abe Boosts Rescue Team as Japan Quake Death Toll Rises to 41
Japanese Cos. Continue Output Halts, Checking Quake Damage
USD/JPY:

Lew Says FX Markets Orderly Despite Recent Yen Appreciation
Lew Says Japan Needs to Be Careful on Timing of Tax Increase
Lew Urges Japan to Deploy Flexible Fiscal Policy in Near Term
OIL:

Russia, Saudi Arabia Approve Oil Freeze Deal, Says Oman Minister
Doha Draft Says Oil Producers to Meet in Russia in Oct.: Reuters
IMF Says It Hopes to Reach Stand-by Arrangement With Iraq in May
EUR/USD:

ECB Sees No Reason to Weaken Euro Against Dollar: Reuters
EUR:

Greek Minister Reaches Out to Lagarde as Bailout Talks Drag
More Austerity Steps Said to Be Considered for Greece: WSJ
IMF: Lagarde Says Ready to Support ‘Realistic’ Greek Program
IMF’s Lagarde Says Don’t Expect Immediate Outcome on Greek Talks
Schaeuble Says IMF Has to Remain Financially Involved in Greece
Greek Creditors Not Seeking to Increase Austerity Steps: Sapin
G20:

G-20 Threatens Penalties on Tax Havens After Panama Papers
CHF:

SNB’s Jordan Says Swiss Franc Is ‘Significantly Overvalued’
Jordan Says Exemption Threshold Could Become SNB Policy Tool
CNY:

PBOC Governor Says China Eco. Indicators Show Signs of Rebound
PBOC’s Zhou: China to Keep Pursuing Market-Based FX Reform
China Denounces Ratings Firms for `Bias’ After Outlook Cuts
China 1Q GDP Grows 1.1% From Previous Quarter
China’s Stats Bureau Chief Says 1Q GDP Beats Expectation: Xinhua
IMF’s Lipton: Yuan Value Broadly in Line With Fundamentals
China to Deepen State-Owned Cos. Reform This Year: Xinhua
USD:

Ted Cruz Sweeps All Republican Delegates Up for Grabs in Wyoming
TRY: Turkey Disinflation to Continue, Central Bank Governor Says
Turkey Names Cetinkaya Central Bank Governor: Official Gazette

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: The Euro held steadily around the 1.1265 levels into the Tokyo session before dipping to the early lows into the 1.1250 and then holding through to the grey hours, London tested to the 1.1270 into the opening before dropping back through the day’s lows briefly, the steady rise through the day saw the market push gradually through to the 1.1315 areas into the NYK session before ranging around the 1.1300 levels before slipping back into the close to hold around the 1.1285 area.
• GBP: Cable drifted lower during the early part of the session testing into the 1.4135 levels before recovering to the opening 1.4150 and moving into the London session almost unchanged on the day, early London saw the range increase, a lower trade balance in the Eurozone saw some steady EURGBP selling testing to the 0.7940 levels, Cable pushed through to the 1.4200 levels and steady moving into the NYK session the closure in London saw the market rising again and weak stops triggered as the market broke through 1.4200 levels and the market testing 1.4240 levels before running into light offers and a quiet end to the day drifting back towards the 1.4200 levels.
• JPY: Tokyo were steady buyers of the USDJPY and the market traded towards the 109.80 levels and held above the 109.60 levels, the move into the London session saw the market drifting steadily back from those highs and holding for a period around the 109.20 levels before continuing a steady decline into the Tokyo session, US numbers did little to the market and the USDJPY dipped through the 108.80 levels and traded quietly through the end of the session in a tight range through to the close.
• AUD: The Oz traded in a fairly tight range through the day with the market lifted from the early lows 0.7685 to test to the 0.7730 in Asia with CNY numbers helping the Oz move a head however, the movement was not particularly strong and the move into the London session saw repeated attempts through the level only to drift lower again into the NYK session, although the market did again test lower the weak IP number saw the USD weakening again and the Oz finished towards the highs.

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

CNY        Industrial Production Y/Y Mar A 6.80% | C 6.00% | P 5.40%

CNY        Retail Sales Y/Y Mar A 10.70% | C 10.30% | P 10.20%

CNY        Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Mar A 10.50% | C 10.40% | P 10.20%

CNY        GDP Y/Y Q1 A 6.70% | C 6.70% | P 6.80%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Feb (F) A -5.20% | C -6.20% | P -6.20%

EUR        Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Feb A 20.2B | C 21.9B | P 21.2B | R 22.8B

CAD       Manufacturing Shipments M/M Feb A -3.30% | C -1.50% | P 2.30%

USD       Empire State Manufacturing Apr A 9.6 | C 0 | P 0.62

USD       Industrial Production Mar A -0.60% | C -0.20% | P -0.50%

USD       Capacity Utilization Mar A 74.80% | C 75.30% | P 76.70%

USD       U. of Michigan Sentiment Apr (P) A 89.7 | C 91.8 | P 91

Stay lucky

Andy

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.