Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.22 | EURUSD 1.13581 | AUDUSD 0.7813 | NZDUSD 0.70455 | USDCAD 1.2671 | USDCHF 0.9619 | GBPUSD 1.43969 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.13738 | 1.13574

USDJPY                 109.331 | 108.879

GBPUSD               1.44031 | 1.43622

AUDUSD              0.78159 | 0.77767

USDCHF               0.96213 | 0.96071

USDCAD               1.27206 | 1.26540

NZDUSD               0.70603 | 0.70036

EURGBP               0.79119 | 0.78886

EURJPY                 124.137 | 123.707

EURCHF                1.09287 | 1.09235

 

For Today

  • EUR: A slow start to the day saw the market holding around the 1.1360 levels before slowly edging higher into the Tokyo session to test above the 1.1370 levels however, with only limited movement and holding eventually around the opening levels, Topside offers through the 1.1380 and through the 1.1420 areas before the market opens a little with better offers likely to be protecting the 1.1480-1.1500 levels and likely to be key to any further topside weakness, downside bids light through to the 1.1300 areas where the bids are likely to be only slightly stronger, a move through the 1.1280 areas will likely see stronger bids moving in around the 1.1260 areas and only a push through to the 1.1240 area will likely see a mixture of profit taking and weak stops appearing in the market.
  • GBP: A steady drift lower for the Cable with the market moving off the 1.4400 levels and testing steadily into the 1.4370 areas in a very lacklustre trading, Topside offers through the 1.4420 areas are likely to buckle on any strong moves with any movement to the 1.4450 levels seeing selling moving into the market, a test to 1.4500 is likely to see stronger offers waiting and only a break will see limited stops appearing and the market opening to further weakness through to the 1.4600 areas. Downside bids light all the way through the 1.4300 level with congestion possibly slowing on a move into the 1.4250 areas and into 1.4200, better bids then start to appear on a move through that level and into 1.4150.
  • JPY: USDJPY has done very little through the session with the market slowly drifting from the 109.30 levels once the release of the March export levels showed only slightly better than had been expected at -6.8% YoY, the USDJPY eventually slipped through the 109.00 areas and to the 108.90 before trading around the figure level for much of the session and into the grey hour. Topside offers into the 109.50 levels will likely see minor stops through the 109.60 levels before offers reappear on a move towards the 110.00 levels. Downside bids light through the 108.80 areas and then the better bids are likely to be below the 108.20 areas and through to 107.80 and in particular the 107.60 levels from last week, a break here will open up a deeper move in all likelihood with the 106.00 areas becoming exposed.
  • AUD: RBA Stevens comments late into the NYK session and then rereleased through the session leaving the market drifting from the close and slowly trading through the session to the 0.7780 areas and holding into the grey hour, Topside bids through the 0.7840 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing on a move through the 0.7860 areas and the market then opening to further stops as the market pushes to 79 cent, and the market then opening for a larger move higher, Downside bids through into the 0.7720 levels with weak stops likely through the 77 cent areas and only limited bids until closer to the 76 cent area.

 

Overnight News

OIL:

Kuwait Oil Workers to Return to Work Tomorrow: KUNA

JPY:

Kuroda Says Won’t Hesitate to Add Stimulus If Needed

Kuroda Says ‘Helicopter Money’ Contradicts Legal Framework

Suga: Haven’t Considered 1% Incremental Sales-Tax Increase

Suga: Abe Has Said There is No Chance of Dissolving Lower House

Japan March Exports Fall 6.8% Y/y; Est. -7%

Japan Considers Allowing Banks to Sell ETF, Nikkei Says

USD:

Trump Thanks ‘People Who Know Me Best’ After N.Y. Primary Win

Clinton Says ‘Victory in Sight’ for Her With N.Y. Primary Win

CNY:

China Should Pay Attention to Prevent Macro Risks: News

NZD/CNY:

New Zealand’s Key Sees Progress in Upgrading China Trade Pact

NZD:

English Steps Up RBNZ Oversight In Expectations Letter to Board

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Trade Balance (JPY) Mar A 0.28T | C 0.45T | P 0.17T

AUD       Westpac Leading Index M/M Mar A -0.10% | P -0.15%

06:00     EUR        German PPI M/M Mar C 0.20% | P -0.50%

06:00     EUR        German PPI Y/Y Mar C -2.90% | P -3.00%

08:30     GBP       Jobless Claims Change Mar C -10K | P -18.0k

08:30     GBP       Claimant Count Rate Mar P 2.10%

08:30     GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Feb C 5.10% | P 5.10%

08:30     GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Feb C 2.10% | P 2.10%

09:00     CHF        ZEW Survey (Expectations) Apr P 2.5

12:30     CAD       Wholesale Sales M/M Feb P 0.00%

14:00     USD       Existing Home Sales Mar C 5.29M | P 5.08M

14:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P 6.6M

 

Harry Hindsight              

  • EUR: The Euro edged higher in the Asian session moving from the opening 1.1305 lows to push to the 1.1320 levels and holding through to the grey hours in limited action, move into the London session saw early buyers before the release of the ZEW numbers and the market dipping back towards the 1.1320 levels from the 1.1345 areas, the move through to the NYK session saw limited movement and only the release of the US numbers and opening saw the USD slipping back and the Euro heading gradually higher to push to the 1.1380 areas before finding offers in the way and the market running out of steam.
  • GBP: Rising from the 1.4280 levels the market pushed gradually through the 1.4300 level during the Asian session with light buying moving into the market, the move into the London session saw the steady rally continuing and while there was little UK news to go on the movement of the Euro dragged the Cable along with it, some light EURGBP selling into London saw the cross dipping below the 0.7900 levels and trading into the 0.7880 before holding those levels through the session, Cable was quickly taken from the 1.4320 levels and through to the 1.4380 areas before struggling higher to test the 1.4420 levels into the NYK session before the market became becalmed and traded around the 1.4400 levels to the close.
  • JPY: Early cross buying into the Asian session saw the USDJPY moving off the opening 108.80 levels and testing into the 109.20 levels before trading for several hours through the session into London, light selling into the opening and then lifting steadily as the cross JPY buying again moved into the arena, the move through the 109.20 levels saw some weak stops triggered before running into otters into the 109.50 levels and a quiet move through to the close holding on to the 109.20 levels.
  • AUD: Mixed reactions through the Asian session saw the market move off the 0.7750 opening levels to move around on the RBA minutes however, the brief fluctuations with the minutes no different from previously and the market taking comfort in that, the Oz renewed its steady climb and the move into the London session saw the 78 cent levels tested before steady selling moved in, with USD weakening towards the opening in NYK and the Oz again renewed its rally to the 78 cent level and the opening in NYK saw the market testing through the level, light profit taking into the close of London was limited and the renewal of a steady climb saw the market testing through the 0.7820 levels before running out of steam.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

AUD       RBA Minutes

EUR        Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Feb A 19.0B | C 21.3B | P 25.4B

EUR        German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Apr A 11.2 | C 8 | P 4.3

EUR        German ZEW (Current Situation) Apr A 47.7 | C 51 | P 50.7

EUR        Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Apr A 21.5 | C 13.9 | P 10.6

USD       Housing Starts Mar A 1.09M | C 1.17M | P 1.18M | R 1.19M

USD       Building Permits Mar A 1.09M | C 1.20M | P 1.17M | R 1.18M

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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