Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.845 | EURUSD 1.1297 | AUDUSD 0.77949 | NZDUSD 0.69783 | USDCAD 1.26551 | USDCHF 0.97234 | GBPUSD 1.4331 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.13066 | 1.12911

USDJPY                 109.899 | 109.573

GBPUSD               1.43467 | 1.43208

AUDUSD              0.78172 | 0.77862

USDCHF               0.97227 | 0.97071

USDCAD               1.26632 | 1.26316

NZDUSD               0.69811 | 0.69563

EURGBP               0.78893 | 0.78737

EURJPY                 124.155 | 123.809

EURCHF                1.09914 | 1.09702

 

For Today

  • EUR: A very quiet session with the Euro trading around the 1.1295-1.1300 levels for the most part, topside offers weak through the 1.1340-60 areas and then slightly stronger once the market starts to move through to the 1.1400 levels, three attempts to the 1.1440-60 levels this month is likely to see less impetus however, this will depend on the ECB decision and press conference later in the day, a push through will likely see some stops appearing into the 1.1480 areas and a push here could open up a larger move through the 1.15 area and the topside opening for a larger move on the day, downside continue through to the 1.1280 areas and are likely to show only a brief area of weakness before further congestion through to the 1.1240 areas with possible weak stops on the break here and stronger bids into the 1.1200 levels, again this is all dependent on the ECB press conference and I’d not be surprised if there were further comments but nothing substantial.
  • GBP: Cable initially drifted off the opening in the mid 1.4330’s and tested towards the 1.4320 level before finding a little support with weakening EURGBP cross helping the GBP to rise, Cable tested towards the 1.4350 before holding quietly around the 1.4340 areas into the grey hour, Topside offers limited through the 1.4350 levels and the bulk lightly to be above the 1.4400 levels still and into 1.4420, a push through the level opens a test towards the 1.4500 levels and stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 1.4250 areas and congestion makes an appearance with bids possibly spread over the next big figure and the market moving into stronger 1.4150-1.4050 range.
  • JPY: Very quiet session for the USDJPY with the market attempting the topside into the Tokyo session before drifting over to the 109.60 levels having initially failed the 109.90 areas however, the market returned towards the level but had little interest in testing the level again. Topside offers through to the 110.00 areas with possibly stronger stops on a move through the 110.50 and the market opening for a test through the 111.00 areas, downside bids from the 109.00 levels and likely to continue through to 108.50 areas before the market starts to think of a deeper move however, the stronger bids are likely to be in front of the 107.60 level with stops likely to be building below that area and opening the market to a larger drop and the 106.00 level becoming exposed.
  • AUD: Slightly stronger over the latter part of the session with the market ranging between 0.7790-0.7805 for the most part before pushing quietly through towards the 0.7820 and holding around the 0.7810 levels into the grey hour, Topside offers continue through to the 0.7830 areas with possible weak stops a push through the 0.7840 levels is however, likely to see a stronger push and the market opening to the topside to the 80 cent level. Downside bids sees light bids through to the 0.7740 levels and weak stops on a move through the level and the 77 cent levels likely to be weak and open.

 

Overnight News

CNY:

China’s Cross-Border Capital Flows to Be Basically Stable: SAFE

Yuan Remains in Stable Range against Basket, SAFE Says

China May Start More Forex Derivatives Trading, SAFE Says

China Banks Sold Net 902b Yuan of Forex for Clients in 1Q

China to Maintain ‘Prudent, Modest’ Monetary Environment: News

China’s Economic Recovery Masking Financial Risks, Fitch Says

JPY:

Japan LDP’s Yamamoto Calls for 20t Yen for Stimulus, Disaster

BOJ Says Loan Demand From Households Rises, Company Demand Falls

Japanese Bought Net 844.7 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week

Japan’s Ruling Bloc Eyeing Summer Parliamentary Session: Nikkei

EUR:

German Monthly Tax Revenue Rises 7.1 Percent in Strong Economy

NZD:

New Zealand March Job Ads Show Economy Continues to Grow: ANZ

N.Z. Permanent Immigration Fell to Nine-Month Low in March

New Zealand Consumer Confidence Recovered in April, ANZ Says

SEK:

Riksbank Council Dep. Chair Wants FX Intervention Review: SVD

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Q1 A 4 | P 4 | R 5

06:00     CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Mar C 3.89B | P 4.07B

08:30     GBP       Retail Sales M/M Mar C -0.10% | P -0.40%

08:30     GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Mar C 5.6B | P 6.5B

11:45     EUR        European Central Bank Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%

12:30     EUR        ECB Press Conference

12:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (APR 16) C 265K | P 253K

12:30     USD       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Apr C 8.1 | P 12.4

13:00     USD       House Price Index M/M Feb C 0.40% | P 0.50%

14:00     EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr (A) C -9 | P -9.7

14:00    USD       Leading Indicators Mar C 0.40% | P 0.10%

 

Harry Hindsight              

  • EUR: A reasonably quiet range through the Asian session and moving into the London session with the market trading for the most part from 1.1350 areas to the 1.1370 areas having opened around 1.1360, Asia saw a steady rise through to push above 1.1370 with EURJPY seeing some limited buying, the market slipped back to the opening level into the grey hour and then London eventually broke the range to test to the 1.1380 levels into the lead up to NYK’s opening, NYK took the market towards the 1.1390 levels before NYK started a steady period of USD buying through to the close of the market with the Euro dropping back to 1.1320 levels and struggling for several hours before dipping to the 1.1300 level and moving around the level to the close.
  • GBP: Cable slipped lower from the opening around the 1.4400 levels trading quietly to test the 1.4350 levels into the opening in London, the opening saw steady gains and a small push to the 1.4380 areas and the release of the employment numbers saw the market dip back to the lows as the numbers disappointed with a rise in unemployment of 20K for the first time in over a year, the market bounced back and tested quickly through the 1.4400 levels as the market squeezed from the quick selling and the market then ranged into the NYK before pushing back through the 1.4380 levels to test into the close below the 1.4350 areas.
  • JPY: Asian selling saw the market push down from the early 109.30 levels and a steady drift through to London pushing through to the 108.80 areas, USD buying moved into the market from the London opening and the USDJPY pushed back through the 109.00 levels and weak stops took it to the 109.25 areas before light offers again stalled the rally, the move into the NYK session saw further buying appear and with the strength in the USD continuing eventually push to the 109.80 levels to settle into a tight range for the close.
  • AUD: Opening above the 0.7815 levels the market settled into a tight channel with the market moving down into the London session and testing the 0.7770 in a fairly quiet session, London were quick buyers and the market was quickly back to the opening levels before struggling through to the NYK session ranging around the 0.7820 levels, the market spent the next several hours trying to push through the 0.7830 levels before running into the later part of the session drifting back off from those highs and dipping back below the 0.7790 levels.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         Trade Balance (JPY) Mar A 0.28T | C 0.45T | P 0.17T

AUD       Westpac Leading Index M/M Mar A -0.10% | P -0.15%

EUR        German PPI M/M Mar A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P -0.50%

EUR        German PPI Y/Y Mar A -3.10% | C -2.90% | P -3.00%

GBP       Jobless Claims Change Mar A 6.7K | C -10K | P -18.0k

GBP       Claimant Count Rate Mar A 1.80% | C 2.10% | P 2.10%

GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Feb A 5.10% | C 5.10% | P 5.10%

GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Feb A 1.80% | C 2.10% | P 2.10%

CHF        ZEW Survey (Expectations) Apr A 11.5 | P 2.5

CAD       Wholesale Sales M/M Feb A -2.20% | C -0.40% | P 0.00%

USD       Existing Home Sales Mar A 5.33M | C 5.29M | P 5.08M

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 2.1M | C 2.2M | P 6.6M

 

Good Luck,

Andy

 

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.