Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.10 | EURUSD 1.13526 | AUDUSD 0.76253 | NZDUSD 0.69738 | USDCAD 1.25529 | USDCHF 0.96661 | GBPUSD 1.4609 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.13946 | 1.13488

USDJPY                 108.206 | 107.072

GBPUSD               1.46546 | 1.45902

AUDUSD              0.76577 | 0.76230

USDCHF               0.96696 | 0.96330

USDCAD               1.25569 | 1.25194

NZDUSD               0.69882 | 0.69475

EURGBP               0.77810 | 0.77670

EURJPY                 122.843 | 121.905

EURCHF                1.09798 | 1.09707

 

For Today

• EUR: Opening around the 1.1350 levels the Euro made steady headway as the USDJPY was forced lower and Euro’s pressed into the 1.1380 levels and steadily pushed through the offers into the 1.1390 area, Topside offers are likely to persist through the 1.1400 levels, and although there may be some weak stops those are likely to be absorbed through to the 1.1460 levels with stronger offers likely into the 1.1480-1.1500 areas, with the market then opening to the mid 1.1600 levels technically. Downside bids into the 1.1320 levels with those bids likely to continue through to the 1.1280 levels and weak stops limited and the downside bids quickly moving in from the 1.1260 levels and into the 1.1220 area and the month’s lows.
• GBP: Opening around the 1.4600 levels the Cable followed the movement of the Euro and benefited from the weakness of the USD trading steadily to the 1.4650 levels before running into resistance and holding through to the grey hour, topside offers through the 1.4650 levels are likely to disappear on a strong move and the topside then opens to the 1.4800 levels with little likely to show in between, Downside bids light through to the 1.4500 areas with weak stops likely on a move through the level however the 1.4400 area is likely to pose a tougher support level and only a push through the level will opening up the 1.4000-1.4400 range the market has broadly been in during the year.
• JPY: Early trading was contained above the 108.00 levels however, real money, banks and longer term sellers moving into the market the market eventually broke through the 107.80 levels and weak stops opening the downside with the previous 107.60 levels having no chance against the increased selling and triggering further stops for the market to trade close to the 107.00 levels before bouncing back to hold the 107.20-30 areas into the grey hour, Topside offers are likely to be light until the 108.00 areas and possibly stronger offers from that point, however, a push through the level will likely see a little bit of a vacuum and the possibility of a short squeeze higher possibly through the 109.00 levels. Downside bids through to the 107.00 levels and likely to see those bids into the 106.80 areas before more weakness appears and the 106.00 area being the immediate target, with 105.00 levels likely to be a little stronger and the trading ranges for 2014 becoming the new area of concern. However, this will probably have to wait for next week as the market moves into Golden week in Japan.
• AUD: With the USDJPY dropping back as a consequence of the FOMC and BoJ monetary policies laid out the commodity currencies have strengthened and the Oz moved gradually higher again pushing towards the 0.7670 levels from the opening around the 0.7625 area, not real movement and just a consequence of the BoJ’s turn of events. Topside offers into the 0.7700 areas are likely to be light and those offers likely to continue through to the stronger 78 cent level. Downside bids through the 76 cent level and possible weak stops and stronger bids into the 75 cent level.

Overnight News

CNY:

China SAFE to Strengthen Outbound Investment Reviews: Bus. News

JPY/CNY:

Japanese Foreign Minister to Meet Chinese Premier Li: Kyodo

EUR:

Dijsselbloem: Contingency Fix for Greece Is ‘Technical’ Issue

USD/EUR:

Lew, Greek Prime Minister Tsipras Discuss Economy in Call

AUD:

Australia March Credit to Business, Consumers Rose 0.4% M/M

NZD:

New Zealand 1Q Home-Building Approvals Fall 3.7% Q/Q

N.Z. March Household Lending Gains Most in More Than Seven Years

GBP:

U.K. April GfK Consumer Confidence -3 vs Est. -1

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Building Permits M/M Mar A -9.80% | P 10.80% | R 10.30%

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence Apr A -3 | C -1 | P 0

NZD       NBNZ Business Confidence Apr A 6.2 | P 3.2

AUD       PPI Q/Q Q1 A -0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%

AUD       PPI Y/Y Q1 A 1.20% | P 1.90%

07:00     CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Apr C 102.9 | P 102.5

08:30     GBP       Mortgage Approvals Mar C 74K | P 73.9K

08:30     GBP       M4 Money Supply M/M Mar C 0.30% | P 0.90%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar C 10.30% | P 10.30%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr C -0.10% | P 0.00%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Apr (A) C 0.90% | P 1.00%

12:30     USD       Employment Cost Index Q1 C 0.60% | P 0.60%

12:30     USD       Personal Income Mar C 0.30% | P 0.30%

12:30     USD       Personal Spending Mar C 0.20% | P 0.10%

12:30     USD       PCE Core M/M Mar C 0.10% | P 0.10%

12:30     USD       PCE Core Y/Y Mar P 1.70%

12:30     CAD       Industrial Product Price M/M Mar P -1.10%

12:30     CAD       Raw Materials Price Index M/M Mar P -2.60%

12:30     CAD       GDP M/M Feb P 0.60%

13:45     USD       Chicago PMI Apr C 53.1 | P 53.6

14:00     USD       U. of Michigan Confidence Apr (F) C 90.3 | P 89.7

Harry Hindsight              

• EUR: Limited through the day with most of the action in the USDJPY, the Euro slipped from the early highs around the 1.1330 levels and slipped back to the 1.1310 areas and test into the 1.1300 levels before the BoJ monetary policy, the movement in the USDJPY saw the Euro bounce quickly back through the previous highs to hold the 1.1340 levels into the London session, German unemployment fell and the number was better than expected and allowed the Euro to move above the 1.1350 and range around the level for several hours before the US figures saw some light USD buying through to the end of London and then a slow reversal to the close to take the market back to the 1.1350 levels.
• GBP: Cable was fairly quiet and struggled in Asia to make any headway holding around the 1.4540 levels, the move into the London session saw a steady move to above the 1.4600 levels and struggled around the 1.4620 areas, dipping into the NYK session the market ranged between the high and low through the session buffeted by other pairs and finishing towards its highs.
• JPY: USDJPY moved slowly through the early part of the session testing to the 111.80 areas before the release of the BoJ Monetary policy, with no change in the face of the markets expectations for further easing, the market acted quickly and the USDJPY dropped from towards the highs to the 108.80 levels before bouncing back above 109.00 the movement was quick and savage and although the market struggled into the London session again pressing the lows and eventually pushing through to the 108.00 areas and holding in the 108.00-50 range through the day as downside bids held.
• AUD: The Oz struggled through the bulk of the Asian session having held the lows through to the grey hour period before pushing steadily into the London session rising from the 0.7580 areas and gradually pushing into the 0.7650 levels into early London and the highs of the day, with the USDJPY having already made its oves the Oz drifted through the session and into NYK moving back to the 76 cent levels and then holding around the 0.7630 levels to the close.

Yesterday’s premiership results

NZD       RBNZ Rate Decision A 2.25% | C 2.25% | P 2.25%

JPY         Unemployment Rate Mar A 3.20% | C 3.30% | P 3.30%

JPY         Household Spending Y/Y Mar A -5.30% | C -4.00% | P 1.20%

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Mar A -0.30% | C -0.20% | P 0.00%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Apr A -0.30% | C -0.30% | P -0.30%

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Mar A -1.10% | C -1.40% | P 0.50% | R 0.40%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Mar (P) A 3.60% | C 2.90% | P -5.20%

AUD       Import Price Index Q/Q Q1 A -3.00% | C -0.90% | P -0.30%

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Mar A 8.40% | C -0.50% | P 7.80%

EUR        German Unemployment Change Apr A -16K | C 1K | P 0K | R -2K

EUR        German Unemployment Rate Apr A 6.20% | C 6.20% | P 6.20%

EUR        Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Apr A 0.13 | C 0.14 | P 0.11 | R 0.12

EUR        Eurozone Economic Confidence Apr A 103.9 | C 103.5 | P 103

EUR        Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr A -3.7 | C -4 | P -4.2

EUR        Eurozone Services Confidence Apr A 11.5 | C 10 | P 9.6

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr (F) A -9.3 | C -9.3 | P -9.3

EUR        German CPI M/M Apr (P) A -0.20% | C -0.20% | P 0.80%

EUR        German CPI Y/Y Apr (P) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (APR 23) A 257K | C 252K | P 247K | R 248K

USD       GDP (Annualized) Q1 (A) A 0.50% | C 0.70% | P 1.40%

USD       GDP Price Index Q1 (A) A 0.70% | C 0.50% | P 0.90%

Good Luck,

Andy

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