Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close Wellington open

USDJPY 106.356 106.28-33 | EURUSD 1.14503 1.1445-48 | AUDUSD 0.76065 0.7598-0.7603 | NZDUSD 0.69802 0.6971-84 | USDCAD 1.25511 1.2548-82 | USDCHF 0.95937 0.9593-0.9603 | GBPUSD 1.46114 1.4594-98 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am London time

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.14817 | 1.14537

USDJPY                 106.723 | 106.146

GBPUSD               1.46230 | 1.45790

USDCHF               0.95935 | 0.95741

AUDUSD              0.76224 | 0.75950
USDCAD               1.25598 | 1.25291

NZDUSD               0.70198 | 0.69797

EURCHF                1.09963 | 1.09755

EURGBP               0.78627 | 0.78433

EURJPY                 122.332 | 121.750

For today

• EUR: Opening slightly higher the Euro tested from the official opening to around the 1.1480 levels into the early part of the Tokyo session with holidays around the Asia area including China, Hong Kong and Singapore the market struggled through the session to maintain those level however, started to drift as the market moved towards a quiet London session with a bank holiday. Topside offers through the 1.1480 levels likely until around the 1.1500 areas, a break here though is likely to expose the topside for further movement with the 1.1640-60 levels likely to be the next area of interest however, without a full London market it is difficult to see the levels for the day, Downside bids likely to be stubborn into the 1.1420-00 areas with congestion possibly to the 1.1350 areas before the market opens a little to the 1.1300 levels.
• GBP: EURGBP opened a little higher around the 0.7850 areas and drifted through the session, Cable opened around the 1.4590 levels before spending most of the session recovering to fill the gap on the chart and test to the 1.4620 levels before drifting towards the London session, topside offers likely light through the 1.4650 levels but building into the 1.4670-00 areas on any test, with possible weak stops and then further offers around the 1.4740-60 areas, Downside bids light through the 1.4600 levels with light bids just below and into any run to the 1.4550 levels, a push through there will likely see some stops appearing but stronger bids and then weak stops around the 1.4500 levels.
• JPY: USDJPY drifted into the Tokyo session holding the 106.40 levels before early Japan took the opportunity to test the 106.70 levels quickly, however, unable to push to the 106.80 areas the market then drifted back lower and traded to the 18mth low just below the 106.20 levels, a steady rise from there was the opening levels regained and the market pushing steadily to hold around the 106.60 areas into the London session. Topside offer light through the 106.80 areas and then some light selling continuing into the 107.50 leels before the market opens to regain the losses from Friday. Downside bids into the 106.20 levels like to extend down to 106.00 areas before the market opens for further declines with the market open to the 2014 levels and 102.00 looking vulnerable on a strong break.
• AUD: The Oz recovered from a weaker opening and traded steadily above the 76 cent level to test briefly above the 0.7620 levels before slipping slowly back and the USDJPY started to make gains. Topside offers light through the 0.7620 levels before the market opens to the 0.7670 area and possibly stronger offers, Downside bids limited through the 76 cent levels and likely to grow as the market moves towards the 75 cent levels,

Overnight News                                                                  

JPY:

Nikkei Japan April Manufacturing PMI 48.2 vs 49.1 in March

AUD:

Australia April Manufacturing Index Falls 4.7 Pts M/m to 53.4

Australia April Business Confidence Falls 1 Pt M/m to 5

Australia Apr. Melbourne Inst. Inflation Gauge Rises 0.1% M/m

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       TD Securities Inflation M/M Apr A 0.10% | P 0.00%

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Apr A 5 | P 6

07:15     CHF        Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Mar C 0.30% | P -0.20%

07:30     CHF        SVME PMI Apr C 53.6 | P 53.2

07:55     EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) C 51.9 | P 51.9

08:00     EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) C 51.5 | P 51.5

14:00     USD       ISM Manufacturing Apr C 51.6 | P 51.8

14:00     USD       ISM Prices Paid Apr C 51 | P 51.5

14:00     USD       Construction Spending M/M Mar C 0.50% | P -0.50%

Weekend News

JPY:

Aso Says Japan Will Take Action With Currency If Needed: Nikkei
USD/CNY/JPY/EUR:

U.S. Places China, Japan, Germany on New FX ‘Monitoring List’
CNY:

China April Manufacturing PMI 50.1; Est. 50.3
PBOC End-March FX Forward, Futures Short Position $28.9b
China Said to Tighten Loan-Rights Transfer by Banks to Curb Risk
China Stresses Lack of Mutual Trust With Japan at Minister Visit
China to Increase Regions’ VAT Tax Share to Tackle Slowdown
China Expresses Concern Over Frequency of U.S. Steel Probes
EUR:

ECB’s Nouy Says Low Interest Rates Are Source of Concern: FD
AUD:

Morrison Sees Australian Debt Peaking Over ‘Next 5 or 6 Years’
Australia’s Cormann Says Any Spending Hikes to Be Offset by Cuts
SGD:

Singaporeans Need to Upgrade Skills as Economy Transforms: PM
RUB:

Russia Sees Possible Delays to Reaching Syria Deal: Interfax
TRY:

Erdogan Says Turkey Will Have to Deal W/ Syria Kurd Groups Alone

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: Steady USD selling throughout the day with the Euro rising from the opening levels around the 1.1350 areas to test to the 1.1390 levels and offers into the London session, buying into the opening minutes put the market through the 1.1400 levels and making the highs above 1.1410 before drifting back to hold the 1.1380 levels into the NYK session while personal income showed a rise spending counterbalanced the early numbers and the Euro started to rise with the later numbers disappointing and the Euro able to steadily make the highs towards the 1.1460 level before holding steady around the 1.1450 areas.
• GBP: A reasonably chop session for the Cable with early buying in Tokyo taking the markets from the opening levels around the 1.4600 areas to test to the 1.4650 levels and offers, the market held the levels through to the London session with limited numbers seeing the market quickly sold as the market hit the 1.4580 levels then rising through the balance of the session bouncing in 30 pip movements up and down before spiking to the 1.4670 levels and dropping back to the 1.4600 levels as the market ran to the close.
• JPY: The move into the Tokyo session was steady with the market holding the 108.00 levels and ranging to the 108.20 levels, the less that supportive speculation within the market saw the 107.60 levels quickly tested and breaking on the first move with stops triggered on the move to the 107.10-20 areas before limping through the session into London, the London session tested the 107.00 levels repeatedly however, it wasn’t until the weak US numbers that the market broke lower and traded to a close barely above the 106.40 in a steady movement lower over the session.
• AUD: The Oz made early gains as the USD drifted lower however, this was more to do with the strength of the JPY and the rebalancing of the carry AUDJPY with the market topping around the 0.7670 levels before moving into the London session, with the market holding around the 0.7650 levels before dropping back on speculator selling to settle into the 0.7630 levels and the opening area through into the NYK session, carry trade selling and JPY strength in particular continued to dominate the Oz through the NYK session with a brief period into the 0.7590 areas before bouncing back above 76 cents for the close.

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Building Permits M/M Mar A -9.80% | P 10.80% | R 10.30%

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence Apr A -3 | C -1 | P 0

NZD       NBNZ Business Confidence Apr A 6.2 | P 3.2

AUD       PPI Q/Q Q1 A -0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%

AUD       PPI Y/Y Q1 A 1.20% | P 1.90%

CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Apr A 102.7 | C 102.9 | P 102.5 | R 102.8

GBP       Mortgage Approvals Mar A 71K | C 74K | P 73.9K

GBP       M4 Money Supply M/M Mar A -0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.90%

EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar A 10.20% | C 10.30% | P 10.30%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr A -0.20% | C -0.10% | P 0.00%

EUR        Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Apr (A) A 0.80% | C 0.90% | P 1.00%

USD       Employment Cost Index Q1 A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%

USD       Personal Income Mar A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.30% | R 0.10%

USD       Personal Spending Mar A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%

USD       PCE Core M/M Mar A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%

USD       PCE Core Y/Y Mar A 1.60% | P 1.70%

CAD       Industrial Product Price M/M Mar A -0.60% | C 0.00% | P -1.10% | R -1.00%

CAD       Raw Materials Price Index M/M Mar A 4.50% | C 1.50% | P -2.60% | R 0.70%

CAD       GDP M/M Feb A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.60%

USD       Chicago PMI Apr A 50.4 | C 53.1 | 53.6

USD       U. of Michigan Confidence Apr (F) A 89 | C 90.3 | P 89.7

Stay lucky

Andy

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