Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.262 | EURUSD 1.14053 | AUDUSD 0.74648 | NZDUSD 0.68807 | USDCAD 1.28534 | USDCHF 0.96773 | GBPUSD 1.44852 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14098 | 1.13929
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.423 | 107.039
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.44943 | 1.44750
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74771 | 0.73824
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96875 | 0.96743
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28823 | 1.28521
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68899 | 0.68481
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78776 | 0.78657
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.447 | 122.059
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10459 | 1.10349
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For Today
- EUR: After a Golden week in Japan the market comes back in Tokyo with NFP to appear later in the day and so the market was again very quiet, the rallies of yesterday for the USD limited to some degree with position cutting probably the highest priority and Euros into the new session saw very little movement with the market trading for the most part around the 1.1400 areas, Topside offers light into the 1.1480 areas and through the 1.1500 levels however from that point the market is likely to see stronger offers coming to market from short term players however, this has to be tempered by NFP coupled with average hourly earnings, with a poor number in both likely to reverse the USD rally we’ve seen over the past week, and the 1.1600 exposed and vulnerable. Downside bids into the current area and through to the 1.1360-40 before weakness appears, strong numbers will quickly expose that downside to stronger USD buying and the 1.1300 likely to see could quickly see those bids disappear quickly and exposing the downside for a deeper move.
- GBP: Trading from the opening 1.4480 areas the market pushed slowly higher but with little impact and testing only just above the 1.4490 levels before slipping slowly back to hug that opening arear through the session, Topside offers likely to be limited through the 1.4500 levels with the possibility of light offers only through to the 1.4580-1.4600 the market does not feel all that impressive until 1.4650 where the likelihood of stronger offers are likely to kick in and the war through to the 1.4700 area possibly slowing any Downside bids are likely to be currently around the 1.4450 levels, these are likely to be weak and leaves the downside well and truly open for a larger move to test the 1.4300 levels and the ranges of last month.
- JPY: A tight range considering this is the first day back and the NFP are likely to dominate the day as you’d expect, the market opened around the 107.25 areas and traded fairly quietly to the 107.40 areas in early Tokyo before drifting through the session and triggering weak stops to take the market back towards the 107.00 levels and holding the 107.05-15 range for a very long portion of the session with the lows probably a consequence of AUDJPY selling after the RBA statement. Topside offers have now probably resumed with light offers through yesterday’s highs of 107.50 however, given the circumstances of the holiday they are likely to be light and the 108.00 area is likely to be a stronger offering area with a move through seeing some limited congestion before the 109.00 levels. Downside bids likely through the 107.00 levels however a strong test through the 106.80 levels is likely to open the 106.20 bids to a quick test and NFP numbers looking poor could see the USD forcing the market back through onto the 105 handle before finding supportive bids appearing.
- AUD: The tone of the RBA Monetary policy statement drove the market today, and after a steady rise from the opening 0.7460 levels to test towards the 0.7480 areas the market dropped back as a revision of the inflation forecasts draw the market to the conclusion that there further fundamental forces at work and so the market dropped quickly as the market starts to see further cuts a possibility through the year, moving quickly through the 0.7460 opening levels the market didn’t slow until the 74 cent level was hit and the limited offers around the area cleared, the bounce was uninspiring suggesting that bids still remain however having touched into the 0.7380 areas the market ran out of movement with the movement high limited to a dull 10 pips and into the London session, Topside offers likely to be a long way off for the moment with 0.7440-60 areas the starting level likely to contain a mixture of weak stops and offers and the weaker 75 cent levels a fair distance to go however, the potential for a short squeeze is there with the NFP to come, Downside bids in the current areas are possibly the only thing holding the market from a deeper move lower and the ranges from Jan/Feb open on any break lower through the 73 cent levels with possibly only light bids in the area and limited profit taking, the cross market is likely to dominate the market at this point and the deciding factor could be a stronger AUDJPY play with a rising USDJPY supporting the Oz as the USD rises.
Overnight News
AUD:
RBA Cuts CPI Forecasts; GDP, Jobless Outlook Little Changed
Australia’s April Construction Index Rises 5.6 Pts M/m to 50.8
USD:
Fed Officials See Negative Policy Rate as Very Unlikely in U.S.
Fed’s Bullard Says Volatility May Be Larger in Abnormal Times
Fed’s Kaplan Says Officials Must Beware Global Spill overs
Fed’s Kaplan Wants Progress on Jobs, Inflation to Hike Rates
JPY:
Japan LDP VP Komura Sees Possibility of Sales-Tax Delay: NHK
Nikkei Japan April Composite PMI 48.9 vs 49.9 in March
CNY/JPY:
China-Japan Ties ‘Still Fragile,’ Li Yuanchao Says: Xinhua
SGD/AUD:
Singapore to Get Higher Investment Thresholds in Australia
NZD:
RBNZ Says Mediaworks Excluded From Press Conferences after Leak
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Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Apr A 26.80% | C 29.30% | P 28.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Monetary Policy Statement
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Apr P 576B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Apr C 206K | P 215K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr C 5.00% | P 5.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Apr C 0.30% | P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Apr C 0.2K | P 40.6K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr C 7.20% | P 7.10%
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Apr C 50.1
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Euro’s traded quietly through the session in Asia with the Japan’s Bank holiday continued and the Euro generally trading around the 1.1490 levels for the move into the London session, ECB Economic bulletin did little to inspire the market with and the Euro dipped sharply back to the 1.1450 levels and then a steadier fall through the session to eventually test through the 1.1400 on limited volumes, the USD’s rise in front of the NFP tomorrow was possibly surprising but the lack of volume across the day probably explains some of that movement with the Euro testing to the 1.1390 levels into the NYK session and the USD shorts likely to have covered themselves with the market remaining quiet through from the close of London.
- GBP: Limited but choppy day on the whole with the Asian session rising steadily through to the 1.4530 levels before running into the London session and the market starting to see strong selling entering the market pushing quickly back through the 1.4500 opening areas to test the 1.4470 levels on the release of weaker services PMI numbers, and while the market did see a bounce it was short lived before again renewing the downside slide and making the lows as the market moved into NYK testing below the 1.4450 levels, NYK were more interested in selling the cross EURGBP and the resultant bounce in the Cable saw the pair back above the 1.4500 levels and then holding a wider range to the close with liquidity being more of a problem for the pair than the Euro.
- JPY: The odd commentary saw minor moves through the Asian session with the market holding the 106.90 levels through the early part of the day and bouncing quickly to the 107.15 areas to hold towards the London session, with the opening in London seeing steady buying from day traders the market set itself up for disappointment as the highs of 107.40 were made and early numbers saw the USDJPY drop back to trigger weak stops through the 107.00 levels, the market bounced of the 106.80 areas and quickly returned higher as the liquidity problems of the JPY products kicked in and the movement to the high of 107.50 was the final move of the day with the market trading quietly through 107.30 to the close.
- AUD: A quiet start to the day saw the Oz quickly move off the 0.7450 area opening and test to the 0.7490 levels and then struggling a further 20 pips to the 0.7510 levels into the London session once the Trade balance numbers were fully absorbed in the market, the London saw some light selling through the day into the NYK session and the market did make one final push to the highs however, it was a lacklustre move at best and the market settled back towards the opening areas through to the end session finishing the day only slightly higher.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Mar A -2.16B | C -2.95B | P -3.41B | R -3.04B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Mar A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.00%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Services Apr A 51.8 | C 52.6 | P 52.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Economic Bulletin
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Apr A 52.3 | C 53.6 | P 53.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr A 5.80% | P 31.70%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Mar A -7.00% | C -4.60% | P 15.50% | R 15.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (APR 30) A 274K | C 261K | P 257K
Good Luck,
Andy
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