Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.99 | EURUSD 1.11409 | AUDUSD 0.71833 | NZDUSD 0.67341 | USDCAD 1.31235 | USDCHF 0.99325 | GBPUSD 1.46359 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11581 | 1.11345
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.194 | 109.874
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.46407 | 1.46027
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72123 | 0.71735
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99319 | 0.99159
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31320 | 1.30944
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.67646 | 0.67351
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76402 | 0.76139
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.796 | 122.520
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10746 | 1.10652
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For Today
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1140 levels the market moved into the Tokyo session rising from the lows in the 1.1130’s to test through light offers towards the 1.1160 levels before running out of steam and drifting in the 1.1150 areas through to the London session, Topside offers light through the 1.1160 areas will likely see stronger offers on a move towards the 1.1200 areas with weak stops likely through the 1.1230 levels, downside bids into the 1.1140 areas likely to see weakness through the levels and the 1.1100 levels likely to be a target if the market can push through and the 200DMA exposed and likely stops through the level.
- GBP: A gentle drift through the session with EURGBP recovering from the 0.7610 levels to 0.7640 areas before drifting towards the London session, Cable dropped from the opening towards the 1.4640 areas to trade around the 1.4610 levels for the bulk of the session, topside offers light through the 1.4650 areas however from there the market starts to see more resistance and the 1.4700 level is likely to be stronger, the market through the figure area is likely to see stronger stops moving in for a move higher, Downside bids light through the 1.4600 and increasing into the 1.4550 areas however, the level is likely to see weak stops on a break lower and the market seeing stronger bids appearing 1.4500 areas.
- JPY: With Abe talking about a delay to the tax hike, the market saw little movement and the USDJPY hedged higher through the session to the 110.20 levels before moving into the late session drifting lower as USD came under pressure from the other currencies as they recovered some of yesterday’s loses, USDJPY saw weak stops on the move through the 110.00 areas and testing to the 109.90 levels before recovering above the 110.00. Topside offers into the 110.20 levels with the limited possibility of stops through the level but likely to continue being offered into the months highs around the 110.50 levels and continuing through to the 111.00 levels. Downside bids light through to the 109.20-00 areas before weak stops are likely to appear on a break through the 108.80 levels with congestion likely to continue supporting the market through to the 108.20 levels.
- AUD: Early buying on the 0.7180 areas saw the market test into the Tokyo opening just short of 72 cent areas, before steadily drifting lower from the opening to test those opening levels again and drifting to the 0.7175 areas, USD weakness then started to take over and the market steadily pushing into the 0.7210 areas before finding some resistance and the market running into the Lunch hour period to drift a little from those highs. Topside offers likely to increase a little into the 0.7220-60 levels with stronger offers likely to be mixed with weak stops through the early part of that level then becoming stronger again, a push through the 0.7260 will likely see stops appearing and the market opening for a fresh test to the 73 cent levels, Downside bids weak for the moment until stronger bids appear into the 0.7150 levels, even through the level the market is likely to see stronger bids as the market moves through the levels with 71 cent likely to see little in the way of stops for the moment and the 0.7050 the stronger bidding level.
Overnight News
JPY:
Japan’s Abe to delay tax hike, rule out double poll
GBP:
Today’s Poll on Brexit, shows 41% remain and 41% leave against a previous 44-41 respectively
NZD:
NZD Trade balance shows larger than forecast trade surplus with exports some NZD282mio export improvement
EUR:
European commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis speaks in Brussels
Euro area approves €10.3B pay-out to Greece: Dombrovskis
Scicluna says Greek aid tranche will be €10.3B
Scicluna says Greece, creditors reached a good compromise
Sapin: IMF part of Greece deal
Sapin: Eurogroup agrees to deal with Greek debt burden
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Apr A 292M | C 40M | P 117M | R 189M
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jun) C 9.7 | P 9.7
06:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Apr P 1.51
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate May C 106.8 | P 106.6
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment May C 113.4 | P 113.2
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations May C 100.6 | P 100.4
09:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ZEW (Expectations) May P 11.5
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Goods Trade Balance Apr C -60.1B | P -56.9B
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Mar C 0.50% | P 0.40%
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision C 0.50% | P 0.50%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 1.3M
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: The market dipped a little through the Asian session to test towards the 1.1200 levels before recovering into the London session to test into the 1.1220’s on the release of the German GDP number which showed no change however, while the market tested initially higher the market started to sell strongly from the highs and dipped steadily lower through the next couple of hours and pushed to the 1.1170 holding steadily into the NYK session before pushing through the level and moving down to the 1.1140 levels before the close of London, the low was extended a little into the 1.1130’s however, the market held for the most part just off those lows.
- GBP: Cable was steady through the Asian session in a tight range basing off the opening level of 1.4480 with EURGBP cross weakening just a little lower, before running into the London session and the release of the Borrowing number, this showed a little higher however, better tax returns added to the latest poll helped Cable quickly higher with the market pushing quickly to the 1.4550 levels and then after an hour or so pushing again to break eventually through the 1.4600 level and hold around the level into the NYK session, NYK bought steadily through the session to test into the 1.4640 levels with the market holding in a tight range of 1.4620-40 to the close just off the highs, EURGBP selling saw the cross drop from the 0.7740 levels to push quickly through the 0.7700 areas, breaking again from the 0.7690 levels to steadily test to the 0.7620 levels through to the close in NYK.
- JPY: A quiet session through the Asian session with the market making limited gains through the session only to fail to push much further than the 109.40 areas and dipping back to the 109.20 opening levels, London saw steady USD buying against most currencies with the GBP being the exception, USDJPY moved steadily through the session to test through the 110.00 levels with the highs posted late into the NYK session to the 110.10 levels.
- AUD: The market held quietly through the Asian session holding the 0.7210-20 range until the commentary from RBA’s Stevens suggested that there was still the possibility of further cuts and the market reacted quickly to fall through to the 0.7180 areas and then hold into the London session unable to get back above the 72 cent levels before dropping again into the London opening to gradually move through the 0.7170 levels and drifting lower through the day to the NYK opening and testing the 0.7150 areas and starting a steady recovery from there to the London close again unable to break through the 72 cents and then trading quietly to a close around the 0.7180 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Apr A 2.50B | C 3.14B | P 2.16B | R 2.18B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Apr A 6.6B | C 6.3B | P 4.2B | R 6.1B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) May A 6.4 | C 12 | P 11.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) May A 53.1 | C 48.4 | P 47.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) May A 16.8 | C 23.4 | P 21.5
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Realized Sales May A 7 | C 6 | P -13
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Apr A 619K | C 520K | P 511K | R 531K
Good Luck,
Andy
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