Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.991 | EURUSD 1.13952 | AUDUSD 0.74721 | NZDUSD 0.70176 | USDCAD 1.26928 | USDCHF 0.95923 | GBPUSD 1.45037 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14159 | 1.13906
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.000 | 106.515
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.45240 | 1.44917
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75048 | 0.74585
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96042 | 0.95807
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26954 | 1.26721
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71467 | 0.70272
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78708 | 0.78515
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.974 | 121.524
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09399 | 1.09195
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For Today
- EUR: moving off the opening levels around the 1.1395 area the market pushed steadily through the 1.1400 levels and struggled for a large proportion of the day above the level taking the market into midsession before pushing through the 1.1410 areas to touch highs around 1.1415 before drifting back as the market moves to the London session. Topside offers continue through the highs and likely to see congestion continuing till a clear break of the 1.1460 areas and the 1.1500 becoming vulnerable however, the level is likely to see strong short term offers into the level and then weak stops appearing on a break through the 1.1520-30 areas to open a fresh test to the 1.1600 area. Downside bids light through to the 1.1360-40 areas with bids only slightly better and possible weak stops through the level before the 1.1300 appears and only weak bids likely, through the 1.1280 areas could open the market for a deeper test however, for the moment Brexit and US interest rates dominate the market.
- GBP: Early buying from the opening around the 1.4505 areas saw the move into the Tokyo session with Cable pushing beyond the 1.4520 levels before slipping back to test lightly through the 1.4500 levels for the move into the London session, Topside offers into the 1.4550 likely to be light with short term sellers possibly hoping for a repeat of yesterday however, UK’s trade balance is likely to dominate the early London session with poor expectations and inline broadly with March’s number, a decent number could see the market edging towards the stronger 1.4600 levels with weak stops likely to clear the way to those levels, however, those offers are likely to be a little more strongly contested with weak stops through the level, Downside bids through to the 1.4480 areas with weak stops likely on a push through the level and the 1.4450 likely to see stronger bids appearing and continuing through to the 1.4400 areas, a push here would open further selling and the market is likely to find little resistance in front of the 1.4300
- JPY: A quiet session with the market drifting off the high opening and steadily moving to test into the 106.50 areas and holding around the 106.60 for a good proportion of the day into the London session with a set of unexciting numbers doing little for the market. Topside offers light through the 107.50 levels and increasing a little as the market moves towards the 108.00 areas, a push through the 108.20 levels is likely to see some weak stops and the market moving quickly to test towards the 109.00 levels with possibly better offers appearing, Downside bids into the 106.50 areas are likely to give way to weak stops and the market struggling once it dips to the 106.00 levels however, while the market looks to be weak in this area any movement through onto the 105 handle could see stronger bids appearing in the market to hold for the time being, a push through the 105 level though will opening up the ranges from 2014 that held in a tight range of 101-104 for half the year.
- AUD: A no change in interest rates by the RBNZ saw the Oz gap higher on the opening to start the day above the 0.7480 levels which had caused so much problems in the previous session, however, although the market did test eventually through the 75 cent level the attempt was limited and eventually the AUDNZD was sold with the Oz dipping back and filling the gap on the charts to hold for a period around 0.7480 before drifting back steadily to test to the 0.7460 in limited action. Topside offers remain into the 75 cent levels and through a little however, a push through the 0.7520 areas is likely to see some weak stops but congestion likely to limit any impact and stronger offers into the 0.7550 areas and then again into the 76 cent level. Downside bids weak through the 0.7450 areas with weak stops likely and the market open to a fall back to the 0.7400/0.7350 levels.
Overnight News
NZD:
No change in interest rates remaining at 2.25%
NZD strength holding down tradable inflation
NZD higher than appropriate
RBNZ to continue to closely watch data flow
RBNZ says policy to continue to be accommodative
RBNZ says further policy easing may be required
RBNZ sees 4q 2016 annual inflation at 1.3% vs. 1.1%
RBNZ sees 4q 2017 annual inflation at 2.0% vs. 1.8%
RBNZ sees inflation reaching 2% in 4q 2017 vs. 1q 2018
Wheeler: we have limited ability to influence currency
CNY:
China May inflation muted but producer deflation ease, policy seen steady
JPY/CNY:
Japan voices serious concern over Chinese naval ship near disputed islands
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Rate Decision A 2.25% | C 2.00% | P 2.25%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance May A 19% | C 36% | P 41% | R 39%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Apr A -11.00% | C -3.20% | P 5.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y May A 3.40% | C 3.30% | P 3.30% | R 3.40%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May A 2.00% | C 2.30% | P 2.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer Price Index Y/Y May A -2.80% | C -3.20% | P -3.40%
05:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May C 3.50% | P 3.50%
06:00Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y May (P) P -26.30%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Apr C 21.4B | P 23.6B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Apr C -11.1B | P -11.2B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 4) C 270K | P 267K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Apr C 0.30% | P 0.20%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Apr C 0.00% | P 0.10%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 82B
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A steady rise through the day with the market struggling through to the 1.1410 areas into the NYK session with very little data or impact through the session, opening around the 1.1355 levels the market was contained within the range.
- GBP: A little more choppy for Cable with the Asian session opening around the 1.4540 areas and gradually pushing through to the 1.4560 levels into the London opening, The market in London obviously expected a weak IP number and the market led into the selling in to the lead up to the release dipping to the 1.4500 levels before nervously moving off the low, the release when it came saw both the IP and MP numbers showing a strong MoM gain and the Cable jumpted to the 1.4580 areas before hitting light offers and the end of the initial knee jerk reaction, the market filled the gap on the charts in the 1.4540 areas and then started a steady climb through the session to touch the 1.4600 levels and then into the NYK session drifting slowly back to the opening levels and eventually pushing through to test back to the 1.4500 levels into the close as the Brexit question continues to rumble on.
- JPY: Mixed day for the USDJPY with the opening around the 107.40 areas being the highs for the day and the move into the Tokyo session saw strong selling to test the 107.00 levels quickly, however, the bids in the area were soon eroded and the market again pushed this time towards the 106.70 areas before bouncing off the level as the market initially rejected the level and pushed back above the 107.00 levels and then trading in a 30 pip range around the figure through to the NYK session testing to the 107.20 areas before starting a slow movement lower and through to test the 106.60 levels into the London close, NYK then started to slowly buy for the day with the market again pushing to the 107.00 level into the close of NYK.
- AUD: No real data and the market still supported by the previous days no change, the market drifted into the Tokyo session from the opening 0.7455 areas and drifted to the 0.7435 levels before the buyers started to appear as the USDJPY recovered from early selling and the AUDJPY carry began to move higher, the market then moved into the London session around the opening levels having failed to push through the 0.7465 areas with early sellers sending it back towards the lows and slowly trading around the 0.7540 areas, as the market moved towards the NYK opening the market again started to recover and push slowly through the highs and to the 0.7475 areas to trade against the offers for the rest of the session unable to push cleanly through the 0.7480 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Activity Q1 A -2.60% | P -1.90% | R -2.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Apr A 1.63T | C 2.04T | P 1.89T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 (F) A 0.90% | C 0.90% | P 0.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Apr A 1.70% | C 2.60% | P -0.90% | R -0.70%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance May A $49.98B | C $55.70B | P $45.56B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey: Current May A 43 | C 43.4 | P 43.5
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M May A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May A -0.40% | C -0.40% | P -0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Apr A 2.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Apr A 2.30% | C -0.40% | P -0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Apr A 1.60% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Apr A 0.80% | C -1.50% | P -1.90%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts M/M May A 189K | C 194K | P 191.5K | R 191K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Apr A -0.30% | C 1.50% | P -7.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -3.2M | C -3.5M | P -1.4M
Good Luck,
Andy
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