Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.011 | EURUSD 1.1260 | AUDUSD 0.74074 | NZDUSD 0.70373 | USDCAD 1.29114 | USDCHF 0.96135 | GBPUSD 1.42056 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12851 | 1.12576
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.024 | 104.176
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.42173 | 1.41699
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74421 | 0.73850
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96174 | 0.95885
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29440 | 1.28966
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70940 | 0.70341
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79569 | 0.79219
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 119.428 | 117.472
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08348 | 1.08114
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For Today
- EUR: The Euro’s moved along the 1.1260 levels for the most part with brief moves to above the 1.1270 levels with the market spiking a little on the BoJ monetary policy announcement with a downgrade on the inflation outlook with CPI may be a slightly negative or about 0% for the time being, Topside offers into the 1.1300 levels still and a move through the 1.1330 areas has limited capability of move strongly through the 1.1350-1.1380 areas. Downside bids light through the 1.1200 areas with weak stops likely to appear on a move through the 1.1180 levels with possibly better bids on a move through the 1.1150 levels, and possibly stronger bids still through the 1.1100 levels.
- GBP: Cable stalled on the move to the 1.4220 levels in early trading and started a steady drift lower through the day pushing easily through the 1.4200 levels and pushing through the 1.4180 testing a couple of times through the level before continuing through the level late into the session. Topside offers into the 1.4220 areas remain however, these continue to be chipped away at and move through to the 1.4300 is possible and limited offers likely in that area. Downside bids light through to the 1.4100 areas and likely to be a sticking point for the moment, with retail sales and no expectations for a rate change the market is likely to continue being volatile on each piece of news.
- JPY: USDJPY opening around the 106 level and slowly drifted through the session before the BoJ Monetary policy statement and with the no real news and limited talk on easing the USDJPY quickly dipped down through the 104.80 level with light bids holding the area for a couple of hours before giving further ground and pushing to the 104.20 areas into the grey hour. Topside offers light through to the 106.00 level and then continuing through to the 106.20 levels however, there is a possibility of weakness to the 107.00 areas from there. Downside bids into the 104.00 areas however, the market is now open to a further deep correction over the course of the coming few days and the 102-104 ranges are clearly open.
- AUD: The Oz moved slowly higher from the 74 cent levels and pushed eventually through the 0.7410 area pushing gradually through to the 0.7420 levels before holding into the BoJ Monetary statement, initially the Oz spiked higher before the statements started to hit the wires and then dropped with the movement of USDJPY falling triggering AUDJPY selling and the market pushed through to the 0.7385 areas to hold below the 74 cent areas to the grey hour, Topside offers likely to continue through the current day’s highs and into the 0.7440-60 offers with possibly better offers through to 75 cents. Downside bids light through to the 0.7350 area with some possible bids through that level and into the 73 cent level, stronger bids likely as the market retraces to the 0.7250 area.
Overnight News
JPY:
Bank of Japan Leaves Policy Unchanged
Suga: Need to Watch Currency Markets, Act When Necessary
Japanese Bought Net 867.8 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
Japan Regulator Said to Survey Banks on Currency Settlement Risk
AUD:
Australian May Employment Rose 17,900 M/M; Est. 15,000 Gain
RBA’s Kent: China Uncertainty Poses Risk to Commodities, Exports
RBA’s Kent Says Lower Rates Have Been ‘Quite Stimulatory’
CNY:
China May Set Up Group to Cope with Debt Problem: Info. Daily
NZD:
New Zealand 1Q GDP Beats Forecast on Building, Services
English Says New Zealand Doesn’t Look to be at Risk of Deflation
RBNZ Says It Has Outperformed Other Forecasters on Inflation
N.Z. Ministry Lowers Forecast for 2016-17 Primary Exports
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Monetary Policy Statement
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 A 0.70% | C 0.50% | P 0.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change May A 17.9K | C 16.5K | P 10.8K | R 0.8K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May A 5.70% | C 5.70% | P 5.70%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range C -1.25% | P -1.25%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range C -0.25% | P -0.25%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate C -0.75% | P -0.75%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Economic Bulletin
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M May C 0.20% | P 1.30%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M May C 0.00% | P 0.00%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y May (F) C -0.10% | P -0.10%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y May (F) C 0.80% | P 0.80%
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Decision C 0.50% | P 0.50%
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Jun C 375B | P 375B
11:00    GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
11:00    GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Apr P 17.17B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance Q1 C -125B | P -125B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 11) C 267K | P 264K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Jun C 2 | P -1.8
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M May C 0.30% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May C 1.10% | P 1.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M May C 0.20% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y May C 2.20% | P 2.10%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Jun C 59 | P 58
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 65B
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1200 levels the market made early moves through to the 1.1190 areas before starting a steady climb through the rest of the session moving to the 1.1250 areas before holding steady into the FOMC announcement, no surprise on no change with Fed officials indicating a cautious approach with the numbers seeing a one rate hike this year rising to six and even the 2017 saw the number of rises being reduced to 3, this saw the Euro quickly move to the 1.1300 areas before hitting sufficient resistance to hold the market in place and the market tracking back towards the 1.1250 levels and finishing just off the level after a little bit of an anti-climax for the markets.
- GBP: Cable steadily climbed from the opening dip into the 1.4100 levels and pushed through the Asian session to the 1.4140 levels into the London session, the market moved quickly through to the 1.4170 areas from London opening and although the market did dip quickly on the release of stronger employment numbers to the 1.4150 areas the market again pushed steadily higher and tested through to the 1.4210 levels, the market moved in a 50 pip range from there to the close with limited reaction to the FOMC release.
- JPY: USDJPY drifted through the session pushing towards the 106.40 levels eventually into the London session having rejected the attempts to test through the 106.00 level, as the day wore on and the market was unable to do very little the market started to drift and moved through the 106 levels into the NYK session, the FOMC release saw the USDJY dip lower and touch into the 105.40 areas before bouncing back to the 106.00 levels and hold to the close.
- AUD: Opening lower than the close the market held the 0.7340-50 levels through into the Tokyo session however, as with the other currencies the market in Oz started a steady rise through the day pushing to the 74 cent levels and testing the 0.7420 areas before dipping back again to 74 cents until the FOMC release, the move was quick and the market tested 0.7450 areas beore dipping back to hold the 74 cent to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (NZD) Q1 A 1.31B | C 0.97B | P -2.61B | R -2.89B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Jun A -1.00% | P 8.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change May A -0.4K | C 0.1K | P -2.4K | R 6.4K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate May A 2.20% | P 2.10% | R 2.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Apr A 5.00% | C 5.10% | P 5.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Apr A 2.00% | C 1.70% | P 2.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Apr A 28.0B | C 21.6B | P 22.3B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Apr A 1.00% | C 0.60% | P -0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M May A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y May A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M May A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y May A 1.20% | C 1.00% | P 0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Index Jun A 6.01 | C -4.95 | P -9.02
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production May A -0.40% | C -0.20% | P 0.70% | R 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization May A 74.90% | C 75.20% | P 75.40% | R 75.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -0.9M | P -3.2M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Press Conference
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Apr A -$79.6B | P 78.1B
Good Luck,
Andy
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