Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 104.439 | EURUSD 1.12969 | AUDUSD 0.75013 | NZDUSD 0.71735 | USDCAD 1.28434 | USDCHF 0.95879 | GBPUSD 1.47136 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13500 | 1.1301
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 104.962 | 104.391
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.48480 | 1.47427
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75281 | 0.74951
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.95998 | 0.9561
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28459 | 1.27946
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71832 | 0.71601
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76830 | 0.76423
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 118.996 | 118.167
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08778 | 1.08358
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For Today
- EUR: Another day and another poll seeing a quick rise from the opening with the Euro pushing quickly towards the 1.1345 areas before ranging around the 1.1330 areas to the London session steadily rising to test the 1.1350 levels before slipping back a little. Topside offers likely from this level to be light and increasing in strength as the market moves towards the 1.1380-1.1400 levels a break through the 1.1420 area will likely see weak stops appearing and the market open to test through the 1.1450-1.1500 areas with stronger offers likely. Downside bids likely to be light through to the 1.1300 areas however, those bids are likely to be suspect at best and the market could see stronger selling on any move down through the 1.1280 areas with lighter bids through the 1.1240-60 area and better bids still to the 1.1200 areas.
- GBP: A new poll with a phone poll indicating 48 remain vs. 42 stay sending the Cable higher moving from the close 1.4720 areas to test quickly through to the 1.4840 levels before slipping slowly lower and then ranging around the 1.4800 areas through the session. Technically the market is open now for a move through to the 1.5000 areas with some congestion seen from the spring of 2015 the only limit on the move, with the vote to proceed from 10am London time the early market is likely to be dominated by exit polls through the day and the market could be very choppy as those are released, the early hours of Friday will start to see results moving into the market place and further volatility likely. Downside bids light through to the 1.4500 areas at least and the market is very light on positioning from a smaller point of view, a push through the level is likely to see further selling appearing but I would imagine that the result is then a forgone conclusion and the downside is wide open.
- JPY: Opening around the 104.40 areas the quick move in Cable saw the market gap quickly higher and push quickly towards the 105.00 levels before the cross buying saw the market dip back to the 104.65 areas for a quiet range to the close. Topside offers light through to the 105.00 levels with possible strong offers just above the level before weak stops appear and the market opening for a push through 105.50 offers and into the stronger 105.80 areas, there is a possibility of a stronger move higher however, I would imagine any stronger moves will be for the next Asian session, Downside bids light through to the 104.00 areas and a move through the level could see weak stops appearing and a run into stronger bids on a move towards the 103.50 levels, however, the market could find stronger stops on any move below the 103.50 areas and the market to the downside opening.
- AUD: The move in GBP saw the Oz dragged higher from the opening the market testing into the highs from yesterday, the market held in the area ranging around the 0.7520 areas before testing just above the 0.7530 levels into the Grey hour before London, Topside offers likely to continue from the current levels into the 0.7560 areas before the market opens properly for a test into the 76 cent level as with the rest of the market the movement is likely to be dominated by the GBP or not as the case maybe through the next 24hrs, Downside bids light through to the 74 cent levels with possible light bids from there and into the 0.7350 areas, this is likely to be a key level for a reversal and test back lower with very little in the way if the momentum picks up.
Overnight News
G7:
G-7 Said to Issue Statement If U.K. Votes to Exit EU: Reuters
JPY:
Japan Concerned About Brexit Impact on Financial, FX Markets
BOJ’s Kiuchi Sees Overly High Expectations for More Easing
BOJ must shift policy focus to financial stability -Kiuchi
Japanese Sold Net 457.7 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
Nikkei Japan June Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.8 vs 47.7 in May
KRW:
North Korea Says Leader Kim Jong Un Guided Missile Test
CNY/USD:
China Urges U.S. to Use Trade Remedy Measures Cautiously
SGD:
Singapore May Consumer Prices -1.6% Y/y; Est. -0.8%
NZD:
RBNZ Says Inflation Expectations Help Explain Prices Puzzle
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Jun (P) A 47.8 | C 48.2 | P 47.7
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) C 48.8 | P 48.4
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Jun (P) C 51.5 | P 51.6
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) C 52.1 | P 52.1
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Jun (P) C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 55 | P 55.2
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) C 51.4 | P 51.5
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Jun (P) C 53.2 | P 53.3
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 18) C 271K | P 277K
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales May C 560K | P 619K
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators May C 0.20% | P 0.60%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 69B
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: The market opened around the 1.1250 areas and after an initial dip through to the 1.1230 areas the market moved steadily higher in quiet trading the move into the London session saw the market holding the levels through early trading before starting a steady rise through to the 1.1300 areas, NYK were strong buyers and the market quickly tested into the 1.1340 levels with some weak stops triggered before slipping back as limited US numbers entered the market, the market then ranged for the remainder of the session with volumes most reduced.
- GBP: A steadier market overall for the day with the market moving off the opening lows in quick trading from the 1.4620 levels and pushed to the 1.4690 areas through into the Tokyo session before ranging quietly in a tight 1.4660-90 areas until into the London session, a quick push through the 1.4700 levels then saw the market slip back into the 1.4650 areas and another steady rise from there into the NYK session, mid-session buying saw the market push to the 1.4770 levels before finding sufficient resistance to the move and the market quickly dipped back through the late session to the lows again and another slow steady rise through the 1.4700 levels to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY saw a reasonable quiet day with the market ranging from the opening highs around the 104.85 areas before moving into the Tokyo session where strong selling saw the market move down steadily through to the 10435 areas and a quiet range through the day holding around the 104.50 areas until the market moved deep into the NYK session pushing towards the highs again before drifting again to the end of the day.
- AUD: Much reduced volume on the day saw the market rise steadily from early lows just below the opening levels with the market moving off the 0.7445 areas to test through the Tokyo session moving quietly to the 0.7470 areas and light offers, the move into London saw a steady stream of buying moving through the market and a push to the 0.7490 areas in early trading before moving towards the NYK session pushing against the 75 cent level, NYK followed through and tested to the 0.7530 levels before running into further offers and holding an ever tightening range around the 75 cent level to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M May A 0.20% | P 0.20% | R 0.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ZEW (Expectations) Jun A 19.4 | P 17.5
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Apr A 0.90% | C 0.80% | P -1.00%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Apr A 1.30% | C 0.70% | P -0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Apr A 0.20% | C 0.60% | P 0.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun (A) A -7 | C -7 | P -7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales May A 5.53M | C 5.53M | P 5.45M | R 5.43M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -0.9M | C -1.3M | P -0.9M
Good Luck,
Andy
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