Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 102.822 | EURUSD 1.11242 | AUDUSD 0.74507 | NZDUSD 0.71198 | USDCAD 1.2935 | USDCHF 0.97968 | GBPUSD 1.34285 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11273 | 1.10988
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 102.999 | 102.604
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34678 | 1.33888
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74729 | 0.74300
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98070 | 0.97930
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29625 | 1.29298
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71304 | 0.70803
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82932 | 0.82589
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.603 | 113.971
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09015 | 1.08787
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For Today
- EUR: A quiet opening saw the market moving through into the Asian session holding around the opening 1.1125 levels, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market dip a little and slowly trade to the 1.1100 areas before finding limited bids to hold to the London session, Topside offers through the 1.1130 levels are now likely to continue through to the 1.1150 areas before some weakness appears and the market is able to run to the 1.1180 areas and light offers through to 1.1200 a break through the level will likely see some weak stops and the market opening to the 1.1250 areas with possibly stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 1.1050 areas and continuing through to the 1.1000 areas where there is a possibility of stronger bids with no real stops likely unless there is a strong break of the 1.0950 areas.
- GBP: Cable weakened through the session having made its way towards the 1.3470 levels from the opening around the 1.3430 levels before quietly moving into the Tokyo session, the market from that point slowly drifted lower through the session pressing through the 1.3400 levels but staying in contact through the session. Topside offers into the 1.3520 levels are likely to be limited on any particular volume and the market could see strong and quick buying through to the 1.3600 levels to fill the gap on the charts from the start of the week, with offers likely to from there cause more resistance than we have seen, again the day while full of data is likely to be dominated by Brexit talks, and conversations on trade negotiations on the offing. Downside bids are light and again dependent on the above with bids likely through the current lows and possibly stronger into the 1.3300 areas weak stops through the level and one assumes that if we test there then the downside could be open to further losses and the 1.32-1.3150 levels becomes the base line.
- JPY: The opening saw a rise towards the 103 level as the early pre-Tokyo session attempted to push through the topside however, the attempt was weak and the market soon dropped back to test the opening levels before moving into the Tokyo session and steadily drifting through the session to test to the 102.60 areas and then trading in a narrow 102.70-85 range to the London session. Topside offers through the 103.00 areas with a possibility of stops through the 103.20 areas and the market to the topside fairly open with sentimental areas seeing offerings appearing around the 103.80 areas and stronger once the market is through the 104.20 areas. Downside bids likely to be reasonable on any pull back towards the 102.20 areas and continuing through to the 102.00 areas from there it is a little patchy with some congestion continuing through to stronger bids into the 101.50 areas.
- AUD: Oz moved off the 0.7450 levels and the move into the Tokyo session saw good business confidence in New Zealand helping the Oz higher and the market testing briefly above the 0.7470 areas before starting a steady decline through the session back initially to the opening levels before spilling further to move into the London session testing the 0.7430 areas on light volume. Topside offers into the 75 cent areas and likely to be fairly strong before opening to stops above the area and a move to the weaker 0.7550 areas with 76 cent then vulnerable but likely to be strong. Downside bids light through the 74 cent levels with better bids likely to move in below the area from the 0.7360 levels downwards, a push through the 0.7340 areas could see weak stops appearing and the 73 cent likely to be light and potential for a deeper move.
Overnight News
EUR/GBP:
IMF Lifts German Growth Outlook, Cites Downside Risk From Brexit
JPY/GBP:
Japan Will Weigh Trade Pact with U.K., FM Kishida Says: Nikkei
JPY:
Japanese Bought Net 394.2 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
Japan May Industrial Production Falls 2.3% M/m; Est. -0.2%
GBP:
U.K. June GfK Consumer Confidence -1 vs Est. -2
U.K. YouGov/CEBR Consumer Confidence Drops to 2-Yr Low
SGD:
Outlook on Singapore Banking System Moved to Negative at Moody’s
USD:
Puerto Rico Bill Clears Congress, Goes to Obama for Signature
Obama Says He Looks Forward to Signing Puerto Rico Bill
AUD:
Australian May Credit to Business, Consumers Rises 0.4% M/M
Australia Loan Balances Rise 0.8% M/m to A$2.3t, APRA Says
NZD:
N.Z. Business Confidence Rises, Pointing to Stronger Growth: ANZ
NZ May Credit Growth Adds to Case for Housing Restrictions: ASB
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M May A -0.90% | P 6.60% | R 6.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Jun A -1 | C -3 | P -1
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M May (P) A -2.30% | C -0.10% | P 0.50%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NBNZ Business Confidence Jun A 20.2 | P 11.3
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y May A | C 4.90% | P 9.00%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M May C 0.60% | P -0.30%
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Jun C 103.4 | P 102.9
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Jun C -5K | P -11k
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate Jun C 6.10% | P 6.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) C 0.40% | P 0.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (GBP) Q1 C -28.1B | P -32.7B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Apr C 0.40% | P 0.60%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jun C 0.00% | P -0.10%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Jun (A) C 0.80% | P 0.80%
11:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 25) C 269K | P 259K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M May C 4.90% | P 0.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M May C 0.40% | P -0.50%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Apr C 0.10% | P -0.20%
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Jun C 50.7 | P 49.3
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage C 48B | P 62B
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A choppy day overall but a steady rise through to the close, with the market in Euro’s opening around the 1.1065 areas the market initially traded only slightly higher before running into the Tokyo session and dipping back from the 1.1075 levels to trade quietly off the 1.1050 levels through to the London session, consumer confidence helped to boost the market in early trading with the Euro testing to the 1.1100 levels before dipping back again to towards the lows before starting a steady rise through the session after the poor Eurozone numbers were discounted and the pull of GBP took the market with it to push through to the 1.1130 levels before meeting some limited offers, the market moved through the balance of the NYK session holding above the 1.1100 levels for the most part but unable to break through the highs to finish the day just below the level.
- GBP: Brexit commentary continues to dominate the market or it did through the early session, however, with the downgrades talk of interest rate cuts and rumours of trade agreements already in the pipeline Cable the move through the Asian session holding a wide 1.3300-50 areas for the most part with only the early session spiking above the 1.3360 before the Tokyo session began then spent much of the session testing the 1.3300 levels, the move into the London session saw strong buying appearing in the market as talk of trade negotiations and economic stimulus of sorts to stabilize the market started to take effect, the rise was steady and strong struggling in the early session to push through the 1.3400 levels before moving into the NYK session pushing through and heading through the 1.3500 levels with little difficulty, however, the market struggled to push any further and was held for several hours pushing against the 1.3530 areas before rejecting the level and steadily drifting back through the later part of the NYK session to test back to the 1.3420 levels, a couple of attempts to move higher were weak and the market was unable to push through the 1.3470 levels and moved to the close holding the NYK lows.
- JPY: USDJPY held in a reasonably quiet range through the day with early trading taking the market towards the 102.80 levels before moving into the Tokyo session and dropping quickly back on comments from the BoJ and FinMin to test the 102.20 levels, the move through to the London session saw the market testing the downside continually before strong buying moved in helped by the move in GBP instigating cross buying and the market moved steadily higher to the 102.80 levels again and holding the level to the close.
- AUD: The Oz traded in a quiet rising range through the day, opening around the 0.7385 areas the market pushed through the session to test above the 0.7420 levels before finding sufficient offers to hold it in place until deep into the London session, with the rise in Cable the Oz was able to push through the topside and gradually trade to the 0.7455 areas before trading in the 0.7420-50 areas to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y May A -1.90% | C -1.60% | P -0.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jul A 10.1 | C 9.8 | P 9.8
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator May A 1.35 | P 1.47 | R 1.24
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nationwide House Prices M/M Jun A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals May A 67K | C 65K | P 66K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M May A 1.20% | C 0.10% | P -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Jun A 0.22 | C 0.26 | P 0.26
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Jun A 104.4 | C 104.7 | P 104.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jun A -2.8 | C -3.4 | P -3.6 | R -3.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Jun A 10.8 | C 11 | P 11.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun (F) A -7.3 | C -7.3 | P -7.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Jun (P) A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Jun (P) A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income May A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending May A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 1.00% | R 1.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M May A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y May A 0.90% | P 1.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M May A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y May A 1.60% | P 1.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M May A -3.70% | C -2.00% | P 5.10% | R 3.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -4.1M | C -2.4M | P -0.9M
Good Luck,
Andy
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