Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 100.774 | EURUSD 1.10618 | AUDUSD 0.74796 | NZDUSD 0.72224 | USDCAD 1.30015 | USDCHF 0.97884 | GBPUSD 1.29074 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10843 | 1.10606
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 100.972 | 100.246
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29616 | 1.28809
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75164 | 0.74764
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97970 | 0.97743
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30094 | 1.29894
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72778 | 0.72161
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85856 | 0.85484
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.822 | 111.069
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08368 | 1.08287
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For Today
- EUR: Opening just above the 1.1060 levels the market moved into the Tokyo session doing very little however, as the day progressed the safe haven lows weakened the USD somewhat and the Euro saw a steady rise though to just above the 1.1080 levels in quiet trading. Topside offers through the 1.1100 areas likely to continue through to the 1.1120 level before weak stops make an appearance however, the run to the 1.1140-60 areas is likely to see increasing offers with a break through the topside possibly opening a quick challenge of the 1.1200 level with stops through the level and opening the market to the likely stronger offers into the 1.1250-1.1300 areas. Downside bids light into the 1.1050 areas before weak stops begin and those are likely to be very light with better bids into the 1.1000 levels and through to the 1.0980 areas before any weakness appears.
- GBP: The move through to the Tokyo session saw the market struggling with the 1.2920 levels before dipping into the Tokyo session to again touch the 1.2880 levels to make the lows of the day so far, the market rejected the level and then started a steady rise through the session to the 1.2960 areas before holding around the 1.2950 for the bulk of the day, Topside offers likely to be light through to the 1.3000 areas and even there the chances are light for strong offers and the market able to quickly approach the 1.3050 levels for another test of the level with only the monthly trade balance figure the market is likely to be buffeted by the Brexit news that continues to weigh on the market and possibly movement in the Euro as the Eurozone faces more problems from Italy and/or Spain and Portugal news. Topside offers light through to the 1.3040-50 areas then likely to see fresh offers holding the market down, however, a break through here could see a minor short squeeze and weak stops opening the market for a move towards the 1.3100-1.3200 areas with the market still very nervous. Downside bids through to the 1.2800 levels and possibly again nervous bidding likely to crumble if really challenged and with the 1.2700 level being more sentimental than anything with better bids possibly just below the level.
- JPY: USDJPY edged higher once the market pushed into the Tokyo session, opening around the 100.70 areas the market pushed towards the 100.90 levels and held there for several hours before the commentary started with the usual Rhetoric coming deep into the session however, this had an adverse effect and the market dipped back to the opening levels before triggering some weak stops and the market falling quickly back to the 100.20 areas with worse numbers overall during the session, the market bounced off the lows and managed to push back to the 100.50 areas however, the recovery has been fairly week and one has to wonder whether the market will test the resolve of the BoJ at some stage, Topside offers light through the 101.00 areas with those offers likely to be to the 101.20 area before any weak stops appear, however, the offers are likely to start reappearing on a move to the 101.50 levels and then lightly from there to the 102.00 areas, from this point though the market is likely to see stronger offers appearing on any move towards the 102.50 areas and then building into the 103.00 levels. Downside bids into the 100.00 and as we have already seen the rhetoric has already started and they moved straight to page two with the comments a test of the 100 level is likely to draw out stronger comments first and while they are somewhat restricted by the CB and governments of other nations in what they can do they have in the past ignored world opinion however, while a push here will bring out commentaries there could possibly be some leeway in the price action and the market is vulnerable to a deeper test through to stronger bids into the 99.00 areas.
- AUD: Early buying as the USD released some of yesterday’s gains and the Oz managed some movement higher from the opening levels to test through 75 cents to just below the 0.7520 levels, S&P again spoke on the subject of Australia’s triple A rating and reiterated some of the commentary from yesterday on the negative review going into more detail but the impact was limited and the selloff was to the 0.7480 areas before holding above those lows into the last hour or so. Topside offers into the 0.7540 areas are beginning to look more formidable for the Oz however a push though the 0.7560 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing and the market opening to that 0.7650 area highs that were seen on 23rd Downside bids light through to the 0.7450 areas with possibility of some profit taking from short term sellers however, through the level sees possibly congestion through to the 0.7350 areas where better bids are likely. Of course this is all dependent on the USD with NFP later today expected to see a better print than last months.
Overnight News
JPY:
Japan’s Asakawa: Would Act Properly If Are Speculative Moves
Japan May current account surplus shrinks to 1.8 trln yen MOF
Japan May real wage gains slow further, more worries for government
Japan June Eco Watchers Current Index Falls to 41.2; Est. 43.1
CNY:
China Forex Reserves May Signal Intervention Ended: Sec. Times
China’s newly-Added Jobs Mostly in Service Sector: Ministry
CNY/USD/KRW:
China Blasts U.S., South Korea Missile Defence Deployment
KRW/USD:
- Korea, U.S. Agreed to Deploy Thaad Missile Defence System
North Korea Calls U.S. Sanctions on Kim a ‘Declaration of War’
USD:
Dallas Police Says 3 Officers Dead in Shooting during Protest
GBP:
U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence -9 in Post-Referendum Survey
NZD:
N.Z. Gauge Shows Non-Tradable Inflation Accelerating, ANZ Says
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) May A 1.41T | C 1.52T | P 1.63T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y May A -0.20% | C 0.50% | P 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey: Current Jun A 41.2 | C 42.9 | P 43
05:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun C 3.50% | P 3.50%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) May C 22.3B | P 24.0B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) May C -10.2B | P -10.5B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jun C 180K | P 38K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun C 4.80% | P 4.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jun C 0.20% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Jun C 6.9K | P 13.8LK
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun C 7.00% | P 6.90%
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A quiet range over the day with the market opening around the 1.1100 levels and revisiting the level several times however, the dips became deeper as we moved through each session, with the Tokyo session drifting in the early part of the session with safe haven flows dominating the Euro as the Italian Bank situation continues to take over from the Brexit news, dipping through to the mid-session level and testing through the 1.1080 levels the market started to recover once the initial EURJPY selling subsided and moved into the London session pushing again above the opening levels with less conviction, a large drop in industrial production in Germany saw the Euro pushing dropping back from the highs and moving through to the 1.1050 levels, a small recovery into the monetary policy meeting before ranging around the 1.1080 areas through into the NYK session before further strong selling and the market again testing the lows of the day and unable this time to rally from the level to go out just off the lows.
- GBP: Cable saw some limited GBPJPY trading taking the market from the opening around the 1.2930 levels to push Cable down into the 1.2880 area into early Tokyo however, from that point on the market started a steady recovery through the day, moving to the 1.2940 levels into late Tokyo and then quickly triggering weak stops through the 1.2950 levels to move into the London session again testing the 1.3000 levels, the market then ranged from the 1.2940 areas to the 1.2990 level for several hours before the break of the 1.3000 level as the market ran towards the NYK session, testing to the 1.3040 levels before entering into NYK and the selling reappeared, the move through the 1.3000 levels saw the buyers disappear and the market started a deep decent with NYK numbers showing better than expected and the USD progressing for the most part through the session and Cable again testing those 1.2880 levels and then ranging around the 1.2900 to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY had a range bound day with the market seeing plenty of safe haven flows and nervousness as the market traded lower, from the opening above the 101.30 levels the market tested into the Tokyo session with Italian issues and Brexit still causing problems for the global market, EURJPY and GBPJPY selling early in the session saw the USDJPY push through to the 100.80 areas into early Tokyo but unable to push much beyond for several hours, however the market eventually ground down those bids and dipped to the 100.60 areas for the first time on the move into London, the early selling into the London session found the bids too strong in the end and the market steadily rose through the early part of the session into the NYK session and back above the opening levels, US numbers on the whole should better numbers on employment and while this pressured the other pairs the USDJPY was unable to push any higher and started to give ground as the safe have flows materialized again and repeatedly tested the lows around the 100.60 areas before trading quietly into the close around the 100.70-80 area.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7520 areas the market drifted into the Tokyo session and then started to move steadily higher as the JPY strengthened pushing the Oz to above the 0.7530 levels, before S&P revised the AAA status to negative for Australia, this saw the market drop quickly from the highs to touch through the 0.7470 levels before bouncing as the details became apparent and the market pushed steadily back to the opening levels through into the London session, the market drifted back a little from that point before again running to the highs too test it for the last time in the day and then solid selling through the day and into the NYK session to take Oz back towards the 0.7470 levels late into the session and just finishing off above those lows.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index May (P) A 100 | C 100.1 | P 100
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M May A -1.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.80% | R 0.50%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Jun A 609B | P 602.1B
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun A -0.40% | C -0.50% | P -0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M May A -0.50% | C -0.90% | P 2.00% | R 2.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y May A 1.40% | C 0.50% | P 1.60% | R 2.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M May A -0.50% | C -0.90% | P 2.30% | R 2.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y May A 1.70% | C 0.80% | P 0.80% | R 1.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jun A -14.10% | P -26.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Jun A 172K | C 151K | P 173K | R 168K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M May A -1.90% | C 2.10% | P -0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 2) A 254K | C 272K | P 268K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Jun A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.60%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Jun A 51.7 | C 50.2 | P 49.4
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 39B | C 42B | P 37B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -2.2M | C -2.1M | P -4.1M
Good Luck,
Andy
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