Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 105.356 | EURUSD 1.11195 | AUDUSD 0.76316 | NZDUSD 0.72135 | USDCAD 1.28907 | USDCHF 0.98082 | GBPUSD 1.33435 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11398 | 1.11026
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.312 | 105.049
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34813 | 1.33242
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76767 | 0.76093
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98184 | 0.97958
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29187 | 1.28767
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72025 | 0.71432
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83388 | 0.82630
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 118.405 | 116.678
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09149 | 1.08997
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For Today
- EUR: Euro’s traded lower into the Tokyo session with the market testing to the 1.1100 areas on light trading and holding for the most part around the 1.1110 level until the release of the CNY numbers which saw the USD on the back foot for the most part with the better numbers helping Euros’ towards the 1.1140 areas before drifting lower into the London session, Topside offers into the 1.1140-60 areas having seen them cleared yesterday the resistance is likely to be light and the strong 1.1180-1.1200 areas now vulnerable, a push through the level will likely see stops appearing and the market open to the 1.1250 areas on a quick move, a push through here will likely run into heavier offers from then on. Downside bids light through the 1.1100-1.1080 areas with weak stops likely to appear and a run down to the congested 1.1050 areas with further bids into the 1.1020-00 areas possibly stronger.
- GBP: Stronger GBPJPY buying through the session and a follow through from yesterday’s surprise hold for the interest rates in the UK saw the Cable slowly climb through the session to just above yesterday’s highs, the CNY numbers kept the market bubbling and once the highs were made the market drifted back to the 1.3400 areas from 1.3465 areas. Topside offers through the 1.3460 level and likely to continue through to the 1.3500 areas, with the market likely to continue to try and cover the gap on the charts from the 26th Jun and a push through the 1.3500 level is likely to see stops appearing and a run at the 1.3600 levels and possibly some stronger offers from then, Downside bids light through to the 1.3300 areas and although the bids are likely to increase the likelihood of the weakness continuing to 1.3200 is high with that level possibly becoming a stronger level, however, that would depend on the revamped UK government making some awkward comments which is unlikely.
- JPY: USDJPY slipped from the opening levels as the early markets attempted to push the market through the 105.00 level however, the market held and with cross buying again moving into the market the USDJPY started to edge higher steadily through the day, push to the 105.50 levels and then the release of the CNY numbers boosting the USDJPY higher to push through the 105.80 areas and triggering some weak stops on the move to clear to the 106.30 areas and stronger offers for the moment with short term sellers and cross JPY profit taking moving in to cap the areas for several hours, profit taking continued around the levels and the USDJPY has dropped back quickly as the market moved into the grey hours before holding around the 105.50 areas. A push through the 106.70 areas is likely to see stops appearing as the market breaks back above the highs from 23rd Jun and opens up the ability for the market to head back towards the 109-111 range from May, downside bids light through to the 105.00 areas and likely to strengthen as it pushes against the level however, the stronger levels are still lagging the market and 104.20 areas is likely to be the stronger buying areas.
- AUD: limited movement for the Oz on the move through the Asian session and although the market dipped back towards the 76 cent levels in early trading the release of the CNY numbers boosted the Oz to the 0.7675 areas on a sharp move before spending the rest of the session drifting lower and back to the more comfortable 0.7630 areas triggering weak stops as the market moved down through the 0.7650 area and suggesting much of the day trading fraternity are sidelined going into London. Topside offers in the 77 cent levels are likely to be congestive rather than strong patient offers, a move through the level again opens the 0.7800-50 areas and the market is likely to see stronger offers as the market moves towards those levels, Downside bids light through to the 0.7550 areas and likely to see some stronger bidding moving in around the levels with plenty of interest possibly congregating around the 75 cent levels, plenty of important data particularly in the US will have a stronger baring on the market for the afternoon.
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production YoY Jun A 6.2% | C 5.9% | 6.0%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production YTD YoY Jun A 6.0% | C 5.9% | 5.9%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales YoY Jun A 10.6% | C 9.9% | P 10.0%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales YTD YoY Jun A 10.3% | C 10.2% | 10.2%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP YTD YoY 2Q A 6.7% | C 6.6% | P 6.7%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP YoY 2Q A 6.7% | C 6.6% | P 6.7%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Money Supply M1 YoY Jun A 24.6% | C 22.6% | P 23.7%
EUR      Eurozone Trade Balance May C €25B | P €27.5B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI MoM Jun C 0.2% | P 0.4%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI YoY Jun (F) C 0.1% | P 0.1%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core YoY Jun (F) C 0.9% | P 0.9%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Jun C 0.1% | P 0.5%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI MoM Jun C 1.1% | P 1.0%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Ex Food, energy YoY Jun C 2.2% | P 2.2%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial production Jun C 0.2% | P -0.4%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization C 75.1% | P 74.9%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Jun C 0.3% | P -0.4%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business inventories C 0.1% | P 0.1%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Mich Confidence P 93.5
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A reasonably quiet session through Asia with the market trading around the 1.1100-20 areas for the most par having dipped from the opening to 1.1090 and then steadily rising to test the 1.1120 levels in to the opening in London, the market widened a little through the early session with very little action until the BoE announcement, Euro’s was quickly dragged higher by the GBP and traded through the 1.1160 levels before the strong EURGBP selling kicked in sufficiently to turn the market lower and back to holding around the 1.1110-20 areas into the close.
- GBP: Cable renewed its steady climb higher with light buying pushing through from the opening and the lows just above the 1.3100 levels, trading through the Asian session to push gradually through the 1.3200 levels and holding into the London session around the level, the opening saw some buying appear in the market to push the Cable above the 1.3250 levels however, it was not so convincing even if indicative of the markets thoughts, the release of the BoE announcement caught some of the market flat footed and the Cable quickly pushed to the 1.3460 levels before dipping immediately back to the 1.3350 areas and gradually renewing the challenge of the 1.3400 level, the market drifted from that point through into the NYK session and was unable to regain its previous highs and held in an ever declining range through to the close just below the 1.3350 levels.
- JPY: USDJPY dipped from the open with early selling before the Tokyo session opened, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market holding the 104.00 levels and once the session started to move we saw JPY selling mostly in the crosses however, this saw a steady rise in the USDJPY through to the 104.60 levels with limited volume moving through the market, the move into the London session saw the Tokyo market coming back from lunch and the market quickly rising through the 105.00 level with plenty of two way action as the market pushed up into the 105.50 areas and holding through deep into the NYK session before slipping back a little to trade around the 105.40 levels to the close,
- AUD: Quiet start saw the Oz dip through the 76 cent level into the Tokyo session before the release of the Oz data, with steady employment numbers and a high inflationary number saw the Oz quickly push to the 0.7630 levels and trade around the level for most of the session into London, with the market contained to the topside it eventually started to drift away from the 0.7550 highs made into the NYK opening and finished the day around the 0.7630 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Jun A 57.7 | P 57.1 | R 57.2
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Jun A 16% | C 8% | P 19%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Jul A 3.70% | P 3.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Jun A 7.9K | C 10.1K | P 17.9k
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun A 5.80% | C 5.80% | P 5.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Jun A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jun A -1.0% | C -1.00% | P -1.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.25% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Jul A 375B | C 375B | P 375B
GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes A 0—0—9 | C 0—0–9 | P 0–0–9
GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes A 0—0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 9) A 254K | C 263K | P 254K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M May A 0.70% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Jun A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jun A 0.30% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Jun A 0.40% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Jun A 1.30% | C 1.00% | P 1.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 64 | C 62 | P 39B
Good Luck,
Andy
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