Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.884 | EURUSD 1.10148 | AUDUSD 0.74762 | NZDUSD 0.70214 | USDCAD 1.30588 | USDCHF 0.98725 | GBPUSD 1.3208 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.10445 | 1.10068

USDJPY                 107.484 | 106.906

GBPUSD               1.32759 | 1.32113

AUDUSD              0.74991 | 0.74501

USDCHF               0.98804 | 0.98432

USDCAD               1.30780 | 1.30398

NZDUSD               0.70009 | 0.69518

EURGBP               0.83506 | 0.83033

EURJPY                 118.408 | 117.75

EURCHF                1.08740 | 1.08633

 

For Today

  • EUR: A quiet session with the market opening around the 1.1015 areas and moving into the Asian session holding a quiet range until the market broke back above the 1.1030 levels and triggered weak stops in a run towards the 1.1050 levels before settling back and trading quietly again into the London session, Topside offers light through the 1.1060 levels and then likely to see better offers as the market again approaches the 1.1100 areas, and a push through the level will likely see a mixture through to the 1.1140 areas and then stronger offers into 1.1160 before a little weakness appears in the market and a push towards the 1.1200 levels and stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 1.0980 areas and then stronger bids from then on with bids to the 1.0960 slightly weaker than that from 1.0950 onwards a push through the 1.0920 areas is likely to see stronger selling appearing and weak stops through the 1.0880 levels and the market opening to a deeper move with the 1.0700 levels sentimental more than anything else.
  • GBP: Early trading saw the market rally to the 1.3240 from the close with the highs then extending as the Tokyo session got underway, previous days numbers under pinned the move higher and the BoE talk of stronger data than the IMF commentary suggests leading to the move, Tokyo took the market towards the 1.3280 levels however the topside proved a little stronger than expected and drifted back to hold the 1.3220-40 range to the London session, Topside offers into the 1.3300 levels are likely to be weak at best and a push through will likely see those offers in depth through to the 1.3350 areas and stiffening as the market moves through the levels however, the topside then becomes a struggle through to 1.3400-50 areas and only a push through to 1.3500 has any chance of opening the topside to stronger gains, downside bids light through the 1.3200 areas and then stronger bids start to appear on a move through the 1.3150 levels however, with the ECB announcement today those downside bids could see stronger levels appearing to limit any falls.
  • JPY: USDJPY saw quick GBPJPY buying with an article in the telegraph by Kristin Forbes being hawkish, leading to USDJPY rising through to the 107.40 areas before settling down a bit, even so the market was unable to move back below the 107.00 levels and moved gradually to challenge the level for a second time before drifting through from there to hold around the figure area into the London session. Topside offers likely to be light through the 108.00 levels with more sentimental selling into the area before stronger offers start to appear from the 108.70 levels and stronger from then on. Downside bids light through to the 106.00 areas with weak stops on a retracement through the 105.70 area likely to then open the market to congestion around the 104.80-105.20 areas.
  • AUD: the market in the early part of the session ranged in a narrow 0.7455-0.7475 range for several hours, the RBNZ announcements saw the Oz start to make ground with AUDNZD cross being traded more actively and the Oz found room to the topside to test towards the 75 cent level before drifting close to the highs for the rest of the session, Topside offers through the 75 cent level and likely to extend to the stronger 0.7520 areas with further congestion likely through the 0.7540-60 areas before the market sees any weak stops on a move towards the 76 cent level, stronger offers from then on with the market possibly seeing decent topside offers with the latest RBNZ talk. Downside bids into the 0.7460 areas likely to extend through to the 0.7440 area and then weakness in the market likely to appear with the 74 cent possibly only lightly bid and the market able to move easily through to the 73 handle.

 

Overnight News

JPY:

Japan preparing $190B stimulus, govt spending less than half that: sources

NZD:

RBNZ set to cut rates as it target high currency, low inflation

Likely that further policy easing will be required RBNZ

A decline in exchange rate is needed – RBNZ

Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative – RBNZ

AUD:

Q2 Business conditions strong, prices weak survey

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Q2 A 2 | P 4

JPY         All Industry Activity Index M/M May A -1.00% | C -1.00% | P 1.30% | R 0.80%

06:00     CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Jun C 3.49B | P 3.78B

08:30     GBP       Retail Sales M/M Jun C -0.40% | P 0.90%

08:30     GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jun C 9.3B | P 9.1B

11:45     EUR        ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%

12:30     EUR        ECB Press Conference

12:30     CAD       Wholesale Sales M/M May C 0.30% | P 0.10%

12:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 16) C 271K | P 254K

12:30     USD       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Jul C 5 | P 4.7

13:00     USD       House Price Index M/M May C 0.40% | P 0.20%

14:00     USD       Existing Home Sales Jun C 5.48M | P 5.53M

14:00     USD       Leading Indicators Jun C 0.20% | P -0.20%

14:30     USD       Natural Gas Storage P 64B

 

Harry Hindsight              

  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1020 levels the early market struggled through the session drifting a little lower through to the London session pressing to the 1.1000 areas before gradually rising back to the opening levels, the move into London saw the market dipping from the London opening and trading down towards the 1.0985 areas and the lows of the day the movement in the GBP helped the market to push back higher again and although the move into the NYK session saw the market testing to the 1.1030 levels there was little in the market with German PPI a little better but leaving the market very flat for the day with the market closing almost unchanged.
  • GBP: Cable opened around the 1.3100 levels with the market drifting much as the Euro through the Asian session pushing to the 1.3060 areas to make the lows for the day before pushing back to the opening levels as the market moved into the London session, better employment numbers in the face of IMF rhetoric based probably on comments made 6months ago saw the Cable rise quickly as unemployment dipped below the 5% levels for the first time in a while, Cable pushed quickly through the 1.3160 areas and continued to rise to just below the 1.3200 levels before running out of steam and drifting through to the NYK session and ranging towards the close between the high and the 1.3160 areas, final buying into the last hour saw the market quickly push through the 1.3220 levels with weak stops and then holding around the 1.3200 levels to the close.
  • JPY: A quiet day through the Asian session saw the market rising a little in early trading pushing through the 106.20 levels before drifting back and trading around the 106.00 areas testing into the 105.80 areas to make the lows of the day, the move into London through saw the USDJPY rising steadily as the GBPJPY cross started to push higher helped by the M&A news and general firmness of the GBP after the better than expected employment numbers with the USDJPY pushing to the 106.70 areas into the NYK session and holding for several hours until the end of London, the market then saw buying late in the day and the rise to the 107.00 levels was a quiet steady affair into the close.
  • AUD: As the USDJPY rose so the AUDUSD dipped lower as the AUDJPY remained in a tight range through the day and the Oz slipped back through the Asian session to the 0.7490 areas from its early highs around the 0.7515 level, the move into the London session saw GBPAUD buying pushing the Oz lower and as that move failed around the 0.7470 levels the market moved into the NYK session again testing to the 75 cent levels before NYK started a steady selling through towards the London close to push the lows to the 0.7465 areas, the close in London saw a limited recovery only to finish the day around the 0.7475 levels.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

AUD       Westpac Leading Index M/M Jun A -0.20% | P 0.20%

EUR        German PPI M/M Jun A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%

EUR        German PPI Y/Y Jun A -2.20% | C -2.40% | P -2.70%

EUR        Eurozone Current Account (EUR) May A                30.8B | C 24.9B | P 36.2B | R 36.4B

GBP       Jobless Claims Change Jun A 0.4K | C 4.1K | P -0.4K | R 12.2K

GBP       Claimant Count Rate Jun A 2.20% | P 2.20%

GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3M May A 4.90% | C 5.00% | P 5.00%

GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y May A 2.30% | C 2.30% | P 2.00%

CHF        ZEW (Expectations) Jul A 5.9 | P 19.4

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A -2.3M | C -1.3M | P -2.5M

 

Good Luck,

Andy

 

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.