Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 100.193 | EURUSD 1.13238 | AUDUSD 0.76259 | NZDUSD 0.72731 | USDCAD 1.28656 | USDCHF 0.96017 | GBPUSD 1.30770 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am London time

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.13254 | 1.12707

USDJPY                 100.870 | 100.277

GBPUSD               1.30849 | 1.30347

USDCHF               0.96445 | 0.95996

AUDUSD              0.76254 | 0.75838

USDCAD               1.29239 | 1.28717

NZDUSD               0.72668 | 0.72104

EURCHF                1.08795 | 1.08646

EURGBP               0.86616 | 0.86461

EURJPY                 114.039 | 113.486

For today

• EUR: Opening slightly weaker with news that Kuroda will look to next month for possible increase in easing, this saw the Euro gradually weaken through the session, steadily drifting to the 1.1300 levels in early Tokyo before breaking lower and testing slowly to the 1.1270 areas before finding some support and then holding the 1.1280 levels through to the London session. Topside offers a little light until the market moves towards the 1.1340 level and then steady offers likely to increase into the 1.1400 levels, with little data for the day the market is likely to be a little quiet and range bound. Downside bids light into the 1.1250 level with the market likely to see better bids as it approaches the 1.1220 areas with likely weak bids continuing through the level and stops appearing through the 1.1170 areas.
• GBP: Opening a little lower the market initially covered that gap on the charts trading back above the 1.3080 levels before again slipping through the opening areas around the 1.3070 area and a steady decline to the 1.3040 areas before finding some support and holding through to the London opening, Topside offers light through the 1.3100 levels with better offers likely to appear on a test through the 1.3150 areas and possible weak stops appearing around the 1.3170 areas and building into the 1.3200 with possible better stops on a move through the level opening a test above the 1.3250 areas.
• JPY: Pre-opening saw the market test quickly higher on the Kuroda comments before drifting to the official opening around the 100.70 areas and some limited selling appearing to fill the gap on the charts and pushing to the 100.30 areas before Tokyo opened and the market saw a recovery to test through the highs of the pre-opening and holding around the 100.80 areas through into the London session. Topside offers are likely to be weak through to the 101.20 areas with stops limited and the market open to a test through to the 101.50 areas and possibly stronger offers protecting any moves higher however, a push through the level will see only light offers standing in the way of the 102.50 areas. Downside bids likely to increase on any move towards the 100 level and increasing on a dip through the area with weak stops and possible strong stops appearing on any strong move lower.
• AUD: With the weaker JPY from the opening the market in Oz slipped lower from the opening in Tokyo pushing back through the 0.7610 opening areas to test through to the 0.7590 in slow trading for the pair, with the charts filled from the low opening the market to the topside sees possibly light offers from the 0.7620 levels onwards and increasing on a push towards the 0.7630 areas any move above the level could see some light stops however, one suspects that 0.7660 areas onwards are likely to be stronger in both offers and it the level were to be tested open up the market for a harder 77 cent level. Downside bids light through to the 0.7580 areas and then possibly light stops through the level and a test of the 0.7560 areas likely to cause some problems on a quiet day before the market sees better stops through 0.7540 areas and into the 75 cent sentimental bids.

Overnight News                                                                  

USD:

Fed’s Fischer Says U.S. Growth to Pick Up as Investment Recovers

NZD:

RBNZ Plans to Survey Five, 10-Year Inflation Expectations

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

12:30     CAD       Wholesale Sales M/M Jun C 0.50% | P 1.80%

Weekend News

JPY:

Kuroda Says ‘Sufficient Chance’ for More Easing in Sept.: Sankei
Japan to Consider Cutting Feed-In Tariffs for Wind Power: Nikkei
Japan Seeks to Load More Missiles Onto Its Fighter Jets: Nikkei
Abe Denies Report He Opposes ‘No First Use’ Nuke Policy: Nikkei
JPY/CNY:

Japan Protests to China Over 4 Ships Entering Territorial Waters
CNY:

PBOC Official Says 5% Fiscal Deficit ‘No Big Deal’: Yicai.Com
HKEX’s Li Says ‘Matter of Time’ Before A Shrs in Global Indices
SGD:

Singapore’s 2Q Domestic Wholesale Trade Declines 20.5% Y/y: BT
CNY/IDR:

China-Led Jakarta-Bandung Rail Gets Construction Permit: Caixin
TWD/CNY:

Taiwan’s Tsai Targets to Maintain Status Quo with China
EUR:

Italy Should Seek Flexibility on Budget Rules: Min to Repubblica
GBP:

Most U.K. Voters Back Letting Current EU Migrants Stay: Observer
London’s Khan Says He’ll Vote for Owen Smith as Labour Leader
SEK:

Swedish Opposition Alliance Gains Support in GP/Sifo Poll
TRY:

Attack During Street Wedding in Gaziantep, Turkey Kills 30: AA

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

04:30     JPY         All Industry Activity Index M/M Jun A 1.00% | C 0.90% | P -1.00% | R -1.30%

06:00     EUR        German PPI M/M Jul A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%

06:00     EUR        German PPI Y/Y Jul A -2.00% | C -2.10% | P -2.20%

08:30     GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jul A -1.5B | C -2.3B | P 7.3B | R 7.5B

12:30     CAD       Retail Sales M/M Jun A -0.10% | C 0.80% | P 0.20% | R 0.00%

12:30     CAD       Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jun A -0.80% | C 0.40% | P 0.90% | R 0.80%

12:30     CAD       CPI M/M Jul A -0.20% | C 0.00% | P 0.20%

12:30     CAD       CPI Y/Y Jul A 1.30% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%

12:30     CAD       BoC CPI Core M/M Jul A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%

12:30     CAD       BoC CPI Core Y/Y Jul A 2.10% | C 2.10% | P 2.10%

Stay lucky

Andy

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