Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 100.33 | EURUSD 1.12532 | AUDUSD 0.76358 | NZDUSD 0.72768 | USDCAD 1.32282 | USDCHF 0.96914 | GBPUSD 1.29745 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12568 | 1.12388
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 100.894 | 100.088
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29930 | 1.29491
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97010 | 0.96903
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76787 | 0.76114
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32758 | 1.31662
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72957 | 0.72595
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09108 | 1.09015
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86825 | 0.86581
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.457 | 112.480
For Today
- EUR: Euro’s traded a little lower from the opening around the 1.1255 levels before moving into the Tokyo session and strong buying in USDJPY forced the Euro to the 1.1240 levels and from there the market traded around the 1.1245 with the first round of debating between Clinton/Trump the market failed to draw much of a conclusion from who won. Euro offers through to the 1.1260 levels then some weakness on a move towards the 1.1280-1.1300 level, and then with congestive offers to the topside the market looks limited at best for the day however, saying that the volumes so far have been reasonable and could continue. Downside bids light through to the 1.1200 areas with the possibility of weak stops on a drop through the 1.1180 areas will likely be quickly absorbed by bids into the mid-levels on the handle and strength appearing from the 1.1160-40 levels.
- GBP: Early selling in the Euro saw the Cable forced off its early lows around the 1.2950 levels into Tokyo and trading back through the opening level to trigger weak stops on a move through to the 1.2990 areas before drifting eventually back to the 1.2970 levels and into the London session. Topside bids light into the 1.3000 areas with the possibility of a few weak stops on the move through the level, the light offers are likely to continue on a move higher with concentrations around the 1.3050 area and then slightly stronger on a move to the 1.3100 levels with the possibility of a squeeze through the level if the momentum is good. Downside bids on any dip through the 1.2950 levels and through to the 1.2900 area, with the talk of Hard or Soft Brexit continuing to play in the media, for my mind it was a simple in or out vote and those that voted out won, any half measures will likely split the country and as much as the current electorate don’t trust politicians this would definitely be a death knell for some careers, so Hard would be the only way forward.
- JPY: Moving off the 100.35 levels the USDJPY moved into the Tokyo session dropping quickly to the 100.10 areas as details of the BoJ July meeting were released and the market quickly moved higher again from the lows with a slightly weaker Service price, and the USDJPY started to rally higher pushing through to the 100.90 areas before running into limited limits to hold the market in the 100.70-80 areas to the London session, Topside offers into the 101.00-10 areas are likely to be weak with stops through the level likely and the market then able to move into the congested 101.50-102.00 areas with the offers likely to increase the higher the market moves, a push through to the 102.50 areas is likely to see stronger offers appearing and the topside becoming more vulnerable. Downside bids in strength into the 100.00 areas with stops likely to appear on a move through the 99.80 areas mostly from short term buyers however, the market below 99.50 is likely to see stronger bids again and the market slowing into those bids.
- AUD: Better industrial profits in China helped the Oz move higher through the session and AUDJPY was triggered higher with the USDJPY rise, early selling into the Tokyo session on a push through the 0.7630 level to test the 0.7615 areas, from there though it was one way traffic with cross buying and straight Oz buying showing through and the market moving to the 0.7665 levels before any real interference from the sellers. Topside offers from the highs are likely to continue through to the 77 cent level with limited congestion through to 0.7740 likely to be short term sellers, with the market likely to see stronger sellers. Downside bids limited through the 76 cent level however, there are likely to be bids on any move to the level with weak stops likely to dominate on a move through the level and into the 0.7560-40 congestion.
Overnight News
USD:
Clinton, Trump Dive Directly Into Attacks in First Debate
JPY:
Japan Abe: BOJ’s new policy framework to strengthen monetary policy
BOJ Members: Increase to ETFs Was to Offset Sentiment Risks
Suga Says Foreign Ministry Made Errors in TPP Treaty Translation
IMF Gives Thumbs Up to BOJ’s Shift, Suggests More Communication
CAD:
Rising Global Trade May Bring Bigger Currency Swings, Poloz Says
China’s Industrial Profits Jump Most in Three Years in August
AUD:
Australia ANZ Weekly Consumer Confidence Rises 4.4% to 120.6
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Aug A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.40% | 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Minutes of July Meeting
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Aug C 4.90% | P 4.80%
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Retailing Reported Sales Sep C 8 | P 9
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jul C 5.00% | P 5.10%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Sep C 98.9 | P 101.1
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Another quiet session through Tokyo with the Euro opening around the 1.1230 levels and then edging higher into the Tokyo session to tail around the 1.1240 levels and slip back through into the London session pressing the 1.1225 areas, London were steady buyer from the opening and German IFO numbers helped the Euro climb steadily through to the NYK opening testing the 1.1250 levels, NYK were quick buyers in a limited market pushing the market to the 1.1270 levels on the first run and then pushing the second time to the 1.1280 level before sufficient offers stymied the market and Euro’s dropped back to the 1.1255 levels into the close in quiet trading.
- GBP: Early trading saw the Cable testing higher from the opening around the 1.2970 levels however, the run into the Tokyo session saw the market test the 1.2985 levels before the market drifted around the 1.2980 levels through the session and into London, EURGBP buying again featured in the early part of the session with the market rising in the first couple of hours from the 0.8650 lows to push against the 0.8700 level, Cable was driven lower testing down to the 1.2920 levels before finding a base, the move into the NYK session saw the market holding around the 1.2935 areas and then testing slowly higher as the EURGBP buying reached its peak on a push through the 0.8715 levels, NYK were cross sellers and this allowed the Cable to regain its highs eventually and into the London close, holding the 1.2970 opening levels through to the close.
- JPY: Moving quietly in pre-Tokyo holding the opening 101.00 levels the market saw steady selling down to the 100.70 levels before recovering the losses into the London opening, the 101.05 areas though was as far as the market pushed and the selling through the session slowly forced the market steadily lower with the USD under pressure for most of the day comments from Mr Yen Sakakibara with the guru stating that the Yen would continue to strengthen through to the new year and possibly see the 90.00 level. The market dipped and held through to the close around the 100.30 levels.
- AUD: The slight USD weakness translated into a limited rise in the Oz moving from the opening 0.7615 levels the market pushed higher into the Tokyo session trading to the 0.7630 areas before dipping back to the opening areas, and then ranging quietly into the London session, early London were limited sellers with the market dipping to the 0.7605 areas to make the lows before starting a steady rise through to the 0.7650 levels into the NYK session, unable to push through the market traded quietly to the close holding around the 0.7630 to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Aug A -1265M | C -730M | P -433M | R -351M
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Sep A 109.5 | C 106.3 | P 106.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Sep A 114.7 | C 112.9 | P 112.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Sep A 104.5 | C 100 | P 100.1
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals Aug A 37.0K | C 37.2K | P 37.7K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Aug A 609K | C 598K | P 654K | R 659K
Good Luck,
Andy
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