Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 101.645 | EURUSD 1.1211 | AUDUSD 0.76728 | NZDUSD 0.7273 | USDCAD 1.31204 | USDCHF 0.97361 | GBPUSD 1.2842 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12160 | 1.11960
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 102.395 | 101.556
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28609 | 1.28158
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97509 | 0.97274
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76917 | 0.76607
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31354 | 1.31123
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73115 | 0.72710
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09211 | 1.09107
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87387 | 0.87153
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.673 | 113.891
For Today
- EUR: As the hard Brexit talk expands the Euro started to drift with the downside levels being steadily tested through the session and the market trading from the opening 1.1220 open to push through the 1.1200 levels in a quiet day for the pair, Topside offers through the 1.1240-60 levels with stronger offers likely to continue through to the 1.1300 areas and congestion beyond. Downside bids are more congested through to the 1.1140 levels with a little opening to the weaker 1.1100 levels, a move through could see weaker stops opening the stronger bids into the 1.1050 areas with those bids likely to extend into the 1.1000 areas.
- GBP: Cable initially pushed above the 1.2850 areas however, the market was very quiet through the session however, once into the Tokyo session Cable started to drift again testing to the 1.2820 levels again for the second time in the past 24hrs and held through to the 1.2840, Topside offers light through to the 1.2900 levels and not expected to cause to many problems and the market with congestion through the level possibly weaker than it would seem and the better offers likely through to the 1.3000 levels, Downside bids likely to be strong through the 1.2820 levels and too the 1.2800 area, with a push through the level likely to see stops appearing and the market to the downside opening to the 1.2750 areas and lows from the mid 1980’s
- JPY: USDJPY opened quietly however, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market rising steadily through to the 102.00 areas with a brief pause around the level before pushing further and testing to the 102.40 levels before running out of steam and drifting back to the 102.10-20 areas into the London session, Topside offers through the current highs and continuing through to the 103.00 levels with congestion likely to continue through the level if there was a stronger motive to move in that direction, topside offers likely to increase through 103.50 levels. Downside bids limited to the 101.00 areas and then stronger bids are likely to increase through to the 100.00 areas and the possibility of BoJ/MoF interference on any test through the level.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7675 areas the market pushed to the 0.7690 levels into the Tokyo session and expectations for the RBA announcement causing the early buying however, as the session moved on and the market was not able to push through the 77 cents level and drifted into the announcement testing back through the opening levels, the release saw a brief test higher before dropping off 0.7660 before holding steady through to London around the 0.7665 areas. Topside offers through the 77 cent levels remain the key to any further gains and even then the 0.7750 areas are likely to see short term sellers willing to pick the tops, possible stops through the level could see a quick move to the 78 cent level and then the 0.7840 area becomes key to any further gains with the RBA likely to be a little nervous beyond. Downside bids into the 76 cent levels are likely to be reasonably light and a move through the level will likely to see weakness appear with the 75 cent levels becoming vulnerable.
Overnight News
JPY:
Japan Finance Minister Taro Aso to Miss G20 Meeting
Japanese Companies See 0.6% Inflation in 1 Year: BOJ Survey
Komeito’s Yamaguchi Says Negative Interest Rates Stir Confusion
AUD:
RBA’s Lowe Keeps Benchmark Interest Rate at 1.5% (Full Text)
Australia Aug. Building Approvals Fall 1.8% M/m; Est. -6.0%
Australia ANZ Sept. Job Advertisements Fall 0.3% M/m
NZD:
New Zealand House-Price Inflation Slowed in September: QV
NZ Confidence Survey Showing Acute Labour Shortages: NZIER
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Sep A 22.70% | C 23.40% | P 24.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Aug A -1.80% | C -5.80% | P 11.30% | R 12.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Sep A 43 | C 41.8 | P 42
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Sep C 49.1 | P 49.2
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Aug C 0.10% | P 0.10%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Aug C -2.20% | P -2.80%
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: The Euro moved through the most of the day quietly with the market ranging from the opening levels down to the 1.1220 areas and never able to regain those opening 1.1240 levels, the move into the London session saw a little more movement however, as with the Asian session it remained limited, the release of the ISM numbers saw growth in the Manufacturing number and this saw the USD moving higher through the session with the Euro testing towards the 1.1200 and remaining between the 1.1210-20 levels to the close.
- GBP: Cable opened weaker and although that weakness failed to continue through the Asian session holding in the 1.2920-40 areas with brief movements above the 1.2940 levels but with very little conviction, the move into the London session though saw all the sheep moving in as the talk of a hard exit (as if there was a choice) and the Cable dropped quickly back to the 1.2860 levels before finding some minor support, the move through into the NYK session saw the market limping and testing through to the 1.2820 levels and just off the July lows, the release of the better US numbers did little to help the Cable however, it was only the stronger bids that left the Cable holding those lows through to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY ran through the day in a tight range, with the market moving from the opening around the 101.40 levels, trading to the 101.60 levels into the Tokyo session with a spike slightly higher from the lows around 101.20 the main event though was a whisper and the market struggled through the London session doing little better and only after the release of the ISM numbers did the USDJPY push above the 101.50 levels again to hold around the 101.60 to the close.
- AUD: The Oz drifted in early trading testing through to the 0.7640 areas before regaining the 0.7650 through to the opening in London, and only then making steady gains with the help of cross GBPAUD selling pushing the Oz above the opening levels to test to the 0.7680 areas and the resistance level held through to the close with the market unable to push through the 77 cent level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q3 A 6 | C 7 | P 6
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook Q3 A 6 | C 8 | P 6
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q3 A 18 | C 18 | P 19
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q3 A 16 | C 19 | P 17
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Small Manufacturing Index Q3 A -3 | C -5 | P -5
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Small Manufacturing Outlook Q3 A -5 | C -4 | P -7
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Small Non- Manufacturing Index Q3 A 1 | C 1 | P 0
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Small Non- Manufacturing Outlook Q3 A -2 | C -1 | P -4
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3 A 6.30% | C 6.40% | P 6.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â TD Securities Inflation M/M Sep A 0.40% | P 0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Aug A -3.00% | C -1.60% | P -2.20% | R -2.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SVME PMI Sep A 53.2 | C 51.9 | P 51
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Sep A 51 | C 50.2 | P 49.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Sep (F) A 49.7 | C 49.5 | R 49.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Sep (F) A 54.3 | C 54.3 | P 54.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep (F) A 52.6 | C 52.6 | P 52.6
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Sep A 55.4 | C 52.1 | P 53.3 | R 53.4
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Aug A -0.70% | C 0.40% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Sep A 51.5 | C 51 | P 49.4
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Sep A 53 | C 53.5 | P 53
Good Luck,
Andy
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