Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 103.954 | EURUSD 1.11517 | AUDUSD 0.75853 | NZDUSD 0.71523 | USDCAD 1.32186 | USDCHF 0.9807 | GBPUSD 1.2615 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11532 | 1.11101
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 104.049 | 103.537
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26222 | 1.19890
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98273 | 0.98017
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75901 | 0.75615
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32467 | 1.32140
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71725 | 0.71260
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09360 | 1.09173
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91876 | 0.88313
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 116.016 | 115.230
For Today
- GBP: Promoted to top of the pile and an unusually active NFP day in Asia, Cable opened around the 1.2615 areas and was stable moving through into the Tokyo session, initially the market thought that a comment made about punishing the UK for the temerity of leaving the European market however, the market I think would have taken that sort of comment within its stride and analysts were reaching for straws to the move that followed, with Cable dropping from the 1.2600 levels to the 1.1890 level on our systems but in the actual market beyond to the 1.1378 levels (later rerated to 1.1500) on one interbank system, from there the market quickly pushed back to the 1.2300-1.2400 levels, the more likely scenario was a large one touch option around the 1.2500 levels and the market having dipped through the 1.2600 areas saw stops triggered and the market dropping to that level and any protection quickly removed and exposing the downside ERM exit levels below 1.1000 and technical, algo models looking for the opening. Having seen the market bounce back it pushed towards the 1.2500 levels however, this level is now likely to see some offers showing around the level with possible weak stops on a move through the area, and quickly exposing the previous levels to the topside through to the 1.2630 levels, a move through the level could see a similar scenario to the drop with the market squeezing higher however, there is likely to be some limitations to the upside move through the 1.2700-1.2750 levels and the IP/MP numbers dictating the movement and NFP to come this evening it could become a choppy day, downside bids well as we’ve seen there is very little to protect the market from another attempt to the ERM period lows with the sentimental level of 1.1000 like to be an exciting point given the option plays we’ve seen today if that is what it is.
- EUR: Having finished the day around the 1.1150 areas the market moved quietly into the Tokyo session and quickly spiked lower as the effect of the Cable hit the market, Euros tested to the 1.1120 levels and then remained caught in a steady drift lower touching 1.1110 areas before holding for a short period into the London session, Topside offers likely to be light into and through the 1.1200 level with possible stronger offers now perched around the 1.1220 areas with weak stops above however, congestive offers are likely to then appear on any run to the 1.1260 level however, this could be more connected to any move in Cable than anything else. Downside Bids light through the 1.1100 areas with congestive bids on the way through to the 1.1050 areas
- JPY: The USDJPY opened around the 104.00 areas and then moved into the Tokyo session struggling the movement in Cable saw GBPJPY selling moving into the market and the USDJPY forced steadily towards the 103.50 areas however, the movement was tempered somewhat and once the initial moves were over the USDJPY started a steady recovery through to the 103.80 areas and held the levels through into the London session, given the NFP numbers to come the day could be interesting if the UK numbers spur a squeeze otherwise quiet through to the US release, topside offers through the 104.00 level likely to 104.20 and then weak stops are likely to appear and the market able to renew the 105 area with only limited congestion above that level to temper any strong movement after the NFP, downside bids light too the 102.50 areas and then back into the congestive levels from there through to 101.00 beyond here though the market is likely to be strong again and thick with bids on any move to test below the level and into the 100 areas.
- AUD: The Oz well another dull day in Ozville with the market opening around the 0.7585 areas and touching early in the session towards the 0.7590 as GBPAUD selling moved in however, the market was eventually dragged lower through the session as the JPY strengthened and Oz dipped into the 0.7560 area and the bids that held yesterday, recover to mid-range the market has held for the most part around the 0.7575-80 areas as we move into the London session, Downside bids as we’ve seen still remain from the 0.7560 areas and possibly continue to the 0.7540 areas before some weakness appears, but as with most of the pairs its congestive around the 75 cent level and the market could possibly absorb the selling in normal circumstances, NFP as mentioned is the only chance of a major shakeup for the Oz and only if the market can push beyond the 0.7450 areas, topside offers through the 76 cent level are likely to be weak with increasing resistance to any move through 0.7640-60 and again around the 77 cent levels and the recent summer highs to 0.7750 level, a push beyond 0.7760 will likely see quick stops appear and the market testing above the 78 cent level with that handle possibly a stronger point.
Overnight News
CNY:
China End-Sept. Forex Reserves at $3.17t; Est. $3.18t
JPY:
Japan FX Chief: Low Rates Make Doing Fiscal Policy Easier
Abe Adviser Urges BOJ Easing in Nov., Calls for Fiscal Help
Japan Finance Minister Aso to Meet Treasury Secretary Lew Oct. 7
BOJ’s Kuroda Says Global Economic Growth Pace to Pick Up
Asia:
IMF Says Near-Term Outlook for Asia Strong on Monetary Stimulus
AUD:
Australia’s Sept. Construction Index Rises 4.8 Pts M/m to 51.4
NZD:
New Zealand 2Q Median Weekly Earnings Rise Most Since 2007
SGD:
Singapore’s Central Bank to Announce Policy Decision on Oct. 14
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Aug A -0.10% | C 0.50% | P 1.40% | R 1.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index (AUG P) A 101.20% | C 101.70% | P 100.00%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Aug C 1.10% | P -1.50%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Aug C 0.10% | P 0.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Aug C 1.30% | P 2.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Aug C 0.40% | P -0.90%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Aug C 0.80% | P 0.80%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Aug C -11.1B | P -11.8B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Sep C 173K | P 151K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Sep C 4.90% | P 4.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Sep C 0.20% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Sep C 8.5K | P 26.2K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Sep C 7.00% | P 7.00%
14:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Sep P 0.30%
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Sep C 53 | P 52.3
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A steady decline throughout the day with volume eventually picking up after a very quiet Asian session moving from the opening just above the 1.1200 levels the market made slight gains to above the 1.1210 areas but held into the London session around the 1.1195 areas, good German factory orders lifted the Euro off its lows to push back towards the 1.1210 levels however, the release of poor Eurozone retail sales numbers put paid to any further rises and the market went into a steady drift lower with no strong convictions and the market being dragged lower by Cable movement as well, the market slipped eventually to the last hour or so testing the 1.1140 levels before lifting just a little to the close.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2750 areas into the Asian session the market struggled from the start and slowly drifted into the London session just holding above the 1.2700 areas with that remaining the case into the NYK session, with the breach of the level weak stops saw the market moving to the 1.2630 historic supportive area and ran along that line touching back to the 1.2650 in quiet afternoon trading before pushing towards the 1.2600 areas into the final hour or so.
- JPY: With the Major currencies subsiding against the USD the USDJPY traded quietly in Asia before lifting away from the 103.35 lows to test steadily through the London session to the 103.70 areas, the opening in NYK though saw that market pushing a little stronger and although there was a brief struggle into the 104.00 levels before pushing through that resistance and holding into the 104.20 levels to the close.
- AUD: The Oz was particularly quiet and as with the rest of the market eventually gave way to the USD buying with the market drifting from the 0.7620 opening areas to test slowly into the London session, the opening in London saw the Oz dip to the 0.7580 areas and trade for the bulk of the session through to the NYK opening basing off that level, with Jobs in line broadly with expectation and initial claims slightly lower the USD forced the Oz into the stronger 0.7560 areas and only when the London close appeared did the market lift a little away and return to the 0.7580 areas as the short term traders cut and run.
Yesterday’s premiership results
00:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Aug A -2.01B | C -2.32B | P -2.41B | R -2.12B
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Aug A 1.00% | C 0.30% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Sep A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.10%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Sep A -0.20% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
08:10Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Sep A 49.6 | P 51
11:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Sep A -24.70% | P -21.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Aug A 10.40% | C 1.10% | P 0.80% | R 3.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 1) A 249K | C 255K | P 254K
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 80B | C 67B | P 49B
Good Luck,
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.