Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 103.867 | EURUSD 1.09798 | AUDUSD 0.76658 | NZDUSD 0.71976 | USDCAD 1.31091 | USDCHF 0.98979 | GBPUSD 1.22974 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09995 | 1.09734
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 103.960 | 103.650
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23158 | 1.22751
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99045 | 0.98750
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76910 | 0.76610
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31145 | 1.30829
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72353 | 0.71925
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08725 | 1.0861
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89477 | 0.89195
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.164 | 113919
For Today
- EUR: The opening was quiet and the move into the Tokyo session saw the market holding around the 1.0975-80 levels, early buying on the opening of Tokyo saw the market rising to the 1.0990 levels trading towards the 1.1000 levels briefly to set the high and then drifting around the 1.0990 area through to the London session, Topside offers through the 1.1020 areas likely to increase on a move through to the 1.1040-60 areas before weak stops are likely to appear and stronger offers on the move higher into the 1.1080-1.1100 levels, downside bids into the 1.0960 levels and likely to be well bid until the market breaks on a move through to the 1.0930 areas, with the 1.0900 areas likely so be lightly supportive with stops likely to appear below the level.
- GBP: Trading through the into the Tokyo session holding the opening levels around the 1.2300 levels testing through to the 1.2315 areas before again slipping back to range in the 1.2290-1.2300, the move towards the London session saw the market pushing the 1.2280 areas, Downside bids light through to the 1.2220 areas with better bids likely through to the 1.2200 levels however, better is likely to be in relation to a market shot to pieces over the past few days with very few likely to be willing to test the water while the market continues to talk about Brexit for the next few months, a move back through the 1.2200 level will see longer term shorts willing to take profit on any dips again back through the 1.2100 levels and any test to the lows on the 1.20 handle. Topside offers through the 1.2300 levels likely to continue with weak stops likely to appear on a move through the 1.2350 areas opening up a push to the 1.2400 level and stronger offers reappearing.
- JPY: Opening around the 103.85 levels the market moved through into the Tokyo session drifting down to the 103.80 level before attempting a brief test higher into the 103.95 area, once the initial buying was over the market slipped quickly back to the 103.65 levels triggering some light stops before holding and recovering a few hours later to hold in the 103.80 areas, Topside offers likely through the 104.00 areas and continuing strongly on a push towards the recent highs around the 104.50 levels with weak stops and break out stops likely to appear through the levels opening a strong push through to the 105.00 areas and the market possibly then opening for a stronger push higher, downside bids light through to the 103.00 levels with better bids likely then to reappear and congestive bids from then on to the 101-100 levels and greater bids on any move towards that bottom end of the range.
- AUD: Moving off the opening 0.7670 areas the market moved into the Tokyo session with steady cross buying helping the Oz to the 0.7690 areas before being held by the topside offers again, the market then dropped back to the 0.7670 areas for the run to London. Topside offers into the 77 cent area with the offers likely to continue through the level and increasing on a move to the 0.7740 areas, a push through the 0.7760 area is likely to see stops appearing and the market opening to the 0.7790 areas with offers likely to be strong for the time being and the RBA possibly more vocal on the subject. Downside bids light through the 76 cent levels and increasing on a move towards the 0.7540 areas and in particular into the 75cent where the market is then likely to see weak stops and a test back to the 0.7440 levels and stronger bids.
Overnight News
CNY:
China’s Economy Grows 6.7% in 3Q Y/y; Est. 6.7%
CNY: China Says No Fundamental For Yuan Fall In Mid-To-Long Term
CNY: China Jan.-Sept. Property Dev. Investment Rises 5.8%
CNY: China’s Economy Sees More Positive Signs, Statistics Bureau Says
CNY: China Needs National Foreign Investment Negative List: Daily
CNY/USD:
China Buys Most U.S. Corporate Debt since 2011, Dumps Treasuries
GBP:
U.K. GDP May Fall 4.5% by 2030 over Brexit: Guardian
USD/CNY/PHP:
Philippine-China Alliance Shouldn’t Mean U.S. Exclusion: Envoy
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Sep A 0.10% | P 0.00%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Sep A 6.10% | C 6.40% | P 6.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Sep A 10.70% | C 10.70% | P 10.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Sep A 8.20% | C 8.20% | P 8.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP YTD Y/Y Q3 A 6.70% | C 6.70% | P 6.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Aug A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Sep C 3.4K | P 2.4K
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Sep P 2.20%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Aug C 2.30% | P 2.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Aug C 4.90% | P 4.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Sep C 1.18M | P 1.14M
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Sep C 1.17M | P 1.14M
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision C 0.50% | P 0.50%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 4.9M
18:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Federal Reserve Beige Book
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Early recovery from the 1.1000 levels saw the market testing to the 1.1025 levels in early Tokyo before holding through into London session holding in a tight range around the 1.1015 levels but unable to extend the highs from early Tokyo, the move into the NYK session again saw the Euro pushing lower and through the 1.1000 levels, the market dropped quickly as the Crude dropped back some 80 cents and the market held around the 1.0975 levels unable to push to the 1.0970 levels and then after a brief attempt towards the 1.1000 levels held into a close around the 1.0980 levels.
- GBP: Expectations for the inflationary news to show some upside movement drove the Cable through the day, with the move into the Tokyo session pushing quickly from the 1.2180 ar3eas through to the 1.2270 level in early trading, the market drifted back to a comfortable 1.2230 areas through into the London session and started a steady rise through into early morning pushing quickly to the 1.2300 levels, once all the inflationary data was absorbed and the end to easing seems not far away, the move into the NYK session saw the Cable continue to move gradually higher however, the next 20 pips or so was tough to move through and the market took several hours to reach the level before drifting through to the end of the session holding around the 1.2300 levels.
- JPY: A reasonably quiet session for the USDJPY with the market trading back a little from the Tokyo opening to make the lows for the day, testing the 103.70 levels the market eventually recovered to the opening 103.90 area and eased into the London session finding some support and pushing through to the 104.00 level in early morning trading, and trading to the 104.10 levels and then trading around the 104.00 levels to the early movement in London and the USDJPY dipped to the 103.80 areas before returning to the 104.00 area, the more into the NYK session saw the market testing too the 104.20 levels before dropping back again to hold around the opening 103.85 levels through to the close.
- AUD: The Oz opening around the 0.7630 levels and moved into the Tokyo session testing through to the 0.7670 levels in a orderly move before holding the level through into the London session, London tested the 0.7690 levels in early trading but was unable to push through the level and the market drifted around the level into the NYK period, some light movement around the US numbers however, the market remained reasonably quiet through to the close holding around the 0.7660-70 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q3 A 0.20% | C 0.00% | P 0.40%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q3 A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Meeting Minutes
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Sep A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Sep A 1.00% | C 0.80% | P 0.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Sep A 1.50% | C 1.40% | P 1.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Sep A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Sep A 2.00% | C 2.00% | P 1.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Sep A 0.00% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Sep A 7.20% | C 7.40% | C 7.60% | P 7.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Sep A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Sep A 1.20% | C 1.00% | P 0.80% | R 0.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Sep A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Sep A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Aug A 0.90% | C 0.30% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Sep A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Sep A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Sep A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Sep A 2.20% | C 2.30% | P 2.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Oct A 63 | C 63 | P 65
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Aug A 48.3B | P 103.9B | R 102.8B
Good Luck,
Andy
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