Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 103.443 | EURUSD 1.09738 | AUDUSD 0.77225 | NZDUSD 0.72256 | USDCAD 1.31136 | USDCHF 0.98908 | GBPUSD 1.22866 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09808 | 1.09615
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 103.670 | 103.340
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22988 | 1.22766
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99007 | 0.98680
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77350 | 0.76689
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31510 | 1.31141
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72666 | 0.72249
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08664 | 1.08506
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89356 | 0.89222
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.733 | 113.404
For Today
- EUR: No rest for the wicked, or maybe there is with the market holding in a fairly tight range through the session moving to the 1.0980 levels before drifting back to the 1.0965 levels and repeating the move through into the London session holding the lows. Topside offers weak through the 1.1000 areas with the offers likely to continue through to the 1.1020 areas, any weakness beyond is likely to be countered into the 1.1040-60 levels with the rate decision broadly expected to be no change for the moment it doesn’t exactly bode well for a busy day, US initial claims likely to be the highlight of the day. Downside bids into the 1.0960 levels then likely to continue with stronger bids through to 1.0940 possible stops likely through the level and then congestive bids likely to be light until the market pushes through 1.0880 and possibly light stops.
- GBP: Cable again made its way towards the 1.2300 levels however, unlike yesterday there was insufficient impetus to push through the level and drifted through the session back to the opening levels around the 1.2280 area for the move into London. Topside offers appear to be around the 1.2330 levels but are likely to be stronger into the 1.2350 areas with a push here likely to see a movement towards the possibly stronger 1.2400 level with limited congestion likely to open up a move higher with little to protect the 1.2600 areas having fallen so quickly on the 7th. Downside bids into the 1.2200 levels with those bids possibly stronger through the level and into the 1.2150 areas before there is some free movement, 1.2100 levels is likely to be a stronger and more pivotal point with the downside weak beyond this point and whether the market can sustain any strong test.
- JPY: Opening around the 103.45 areas the market initially tested a little lower to run along the 103.35-40 areas, Tokyo opening saw the market rally with fixing demand pushing the market through the 103.50 levels to test to the 103.65 areas before then drifting through the session from the highs to 103.50 and maintaining that range through to the London session, Topside offers into the 104.00 levels limited with better offers likely to be around the 104.50 areas and beyond, with stronger offers likely to move into the market around the 105.00-20 areas, a push through here will possibly see stronger stops appearing and the market opening to a larger move and a move out of the ranges dating back to 2014. Downside bids through the 103.00 levels likely to continue with a rather congestive market through to the stronger bids below the 101.00 levels.
- AUD: The market opened not too far from yesterday’s highs and Septembers highs however, the move through into Tokyo saw a brief spike to the 0.7735 line but release of employment numbers saw the market dip quickly back to the 77 cent levels falling eventually through the level and trading steadily lower to the 0.7660 areas with those numbers really unchanged given the revision higher and the number coming in below expectations, downside bids into the 76 cent levels and then congestive on a move through the level however, a solid push through 75 cents leaves little room with the market likely to absorb any push, topside offers through the 77 cent level again come into play and while the market has been thinned out above the level the offers still remain beyond the 0.7740 areas and are likely to continue to the 0.7760 before the market frees itself a little however, in those offers there is likely to be some weak stops not that they are likely to do too much damage however, it could thin the offers and open a stronger test to the 78 cent level.
Overnight News
USD:
Dudley Says Fed Is ‘Reasonably Close’ to Its Twin Mandates
Dudley Says Strong NYC Economy Has Reduced Housing Affordability
AUD:
Australian Sept. Employment Fell 9,800 M/M; Est. 15,000 Gain
CNY:
China Able to Meet 2016 IP Growth Target: Industry Ministry
China Busts Underground Banks Involving Over 1t Yuan: Fin. News
China’s Bad Banks Become More Innovative in Disposing NPLs: S&P
JPY:
Foreigners Buy Record Japanese T-Bills in September: JSDA Data
Japanese Bought Net 317.7 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Q3 A 5 | P 2 | R 3
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Sep A -9.8K | C 15.2K | P -3.9K | R -8.6K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Sep A 5.60% | C 5.70% | P 5.60% | R 5.70%
06:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Sep C 3.27B | P 3.02B
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Sep C 0.30% | P -0.10%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Sep C -1.20% | P -1.60%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Aug C 24.3B | P 21.0B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Sep C 0.30% | P -0.20%
11:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 15) C 251K | P 246K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Oct C 6.5 | P 12.8
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Sep C 5.36M | P 5.33M
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Sep C 0.20% | P -0.20%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 79B
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Quiet day overall with a limited range with the Euro opens around the 1.0980 trading quietly into the Tokyo session before rallying towards the 1.1000 level with cross JPY doing some work however, once the initial push was over and the market failed the 1.1000 level it drifted through into the London session holding the opening levels, London saw steady buying and the 1.1000 levels testing a little through but again unable to break that topside with the meagre amounts moving through the market and while the UK numbers helped the early Euro the failure at the level again showed up and the market pushed back to the opening levels triggering some light weak stops on the move through and tested to the 1.0960 areas and held in a tight range through the session to the close.
- GBP: Cable saw a little bit more movement however, the whole day was limited with the early Tokyo session unable to push to far beyond the 1.2300 levels and then drifting through the balance of the session to push into the London session holding the 1.2260 areas, employment numbers showed some improvements and a revision of the previous months weekly earnings number again suggests that the BoE easing decision is becoming more and more difficult to imagine, and the market reacted to push towards the 1.2330 levels before ranging through into the NYK session around the 1.2300, so no change there then. NYK tested to the lows again before wrapping up just short of the opening levels.
- JPY: A quiet start then limited JPY cross buying took the market to an early push above the 103.90 however, that was all she wrote with offers sufficient to hold the 104.00 levels and the 103.95 areas was the high for the day and the sellers moved in chasing the market to the 103.70 levels before returning towards the opening levels for the move into the London session, the sellers moved in and while the volumes were poor the market drifted steadily through to the 103.50 areas to hold for a short period before renewing the move, the market tested to the 103.30 area but moved into the NYK session returning towards the 103.50 level, poor Crude inventory numbers saw the oil rise and the USD dip marginally to test into the 103.20 areas but even that move reflected the interest in the market and or lack of it with the market slowly moving off the low to gradually grind back to the 103.50 levels to finish just off those levels.
- AUD: Limited range through the Asian session moving from the 0.7665 levels to push slightly higher with early cross JPY buying helping the market push to the 0.7690 areas before dropping quickly back as those early buyers in AUDJPY changed their minds and the market pushed back to the opening levels and holding through too deep into the London morning, a rally in Cable and Euro weakened the USD a little and again the market failed the 0.7690 levels and holding through towards the close in London, when the market saw a late push with suspected futures options at stake and the 77 cent level quickly folding and pushing through eventually towards the 0.7730 areas before running out of steam and holding the levels through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Sep A 0.10% | P 0.00%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Sep A 6.10% | C 6.40% | P 6.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Sep A 10.70% | C 10.70% | P 10.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Sep A 8.20% | C 8.20% | P 8.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP YTD Y/Y Q3 A 6.70% | C 6.70% | P 6.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Aug A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Sep A 0.7K | C 3.4K | P 2.4K | R 7.1K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Sep A 2.30% | P 2.20% | R 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Aug A 2.30% | C 2.30% | P 2.30% | R 2.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Aug A 4.90% | C 4.90% | P 4.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Sep A 1.05M | C 1.18M | P 1.14M | R 1.15M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Sep A 1.23M | C 1.17M | P 1.14M | R 1.15M
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -5.2M | C 2.2M | P 4.9M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Federal Reserve Beige Book
Good Luck,
Andy
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