Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 103.954 | EURUSD 1.09285 | AUDUSD 0.76271 | NZDUSD 0.72027 | USDCAD 1.32296 | USDCHF 0.99269 | GBPUSD 1.22533 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09306 | 1.08959
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 104.207 | 103.903
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22622 | 1.22296
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99544 | 0.99199
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76364 | 0.76177
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32514 | 1.32255
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71964 | 0.71618
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08547 | 1.0844
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89227 | 0.8904
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.845 | 113.474
For Today
- EUR: Asia followed through with the weakness in the Euro once the Tokyo session opened drifting from the 1.0930 levels pushing through the 1.0900 levels in light trading before holding around that level into the London session, Topside offers light through to the 1.0980 areas and even at that level the market is possibly a little weak and the topside is open to the 1.1040 areas with stronger offers likely through to the 1.1060 level, with little data for the day the market is likely to continue quietly without any further commentary from the ECB. Downside bids through to the 1.0880 with likely weak stops appearing and possibly stronger bids into the 1.0850 levels again though the lack of data could see the market range bound for the time being.
- GBP: A slight drag by the Euro saw the Cable drifting from the 1.2250 area opening to test the 1.2230 areas however, EURGBP selling compensated a little for the movement and the Cable remained around the 1.2240 levels into the London session. Topside offers light through to the 1.2300 levels with some offers building in the area and likely to be stronger through to 1.2320 areas with possible weak stops on a move through the level and again through the 1.2350 with the 1.2400 likely to show stronger offers and key for any move out of the 1.21-1.23 range and opening a move back above the 1.2600 levels. Downside bids light through the 1.2200 however, from that point the market is likely to see stronger bids appearing if the market doesn’t collapse as it did on the 7th Sep, with particular strength around the 1.2100 areas.
- JPY: The USDJPY made its way from the 104.00 opening levels to push up against the 104.20 area before holding in a tight range around the 104.10-20 Topside offers remain in the area and only a strong push through the 104.60 areas will allow meagre gains with the 105.00 level likely to continue to dominate the topside for the Time being, Downside bids light through to the 103.00 levels with the market likely to be stronger on a move through to the 102.00 areas and likely to need something to wake up the stale feeling to the market.
- AUD: The market has traded quietly through the day so far with little data and little movement to speak of, holding the 0.7620-30 levels through to the London session, downside bids remain to the 76 cent levels with a very congested market over the past two months, a push through the level will likely see some weakness but that weakness will start to attract the buyers around the 0.7550 areas and again into the 75 cent level the lower you go the stronger the bids, Topside offers through to the 0.7740 level and having how topped out at the level for the past 3 months the market and likely to be a tough nut to crack on a slow day like today, however, if it were to break then a push through to the 0.7780-0.7800 areas could see strong stops coming into play and the market looking for a strong push to the 80 cent levels and a new range.
Overnight News
GBP:
May Said to Tell Leaders Repealing EU Treaty Will Take One Year
EUR/GBP:
Merkel Cites ‘Difficult Path’ on Brexit after Summit Discussion
JPY:
Kuroda: Yield Target Range Not Necessary, Appropriate
Japan Finance Minister Aso Discusses Yen in Parliament
Aso: It’s Strange Rengo, Didn’t Ask for More Than 2% Wage Hike
Suga Declines to Comment on Duterte Announcing Separation from U.S.
Magnitude 6.6 Quake Hits Western Japan’s Tottori; No Tsunami
CNY:
Net Yuan Outflow by Chinese Banks Jumps to Record $44.7 Billion
China’s Cross-Border Capital Flows to Remain Stable, SAFE Says
Foreign Investors’ Fund Repatriation Worries Unnecessary: SAFE
China Didn’t Issue Rules to Lift Individual FX Cap in 6 Cities
China Needs Payment Risk Management, PBOC Fan Says: Sec. Journal
China Sept. New Home Prices Ex-Affordable Up in 63 Cities M/m
China to Invest >1t Yuan in Urban Rail Projects by 2020: Daily
NZD:
New Zealand Annual Immigration Climbs to Record
EUR:
ECB’s Vasiliauskas Sees Inflation Target Met in Mid-Term
German Tax Revenue Rises 5% Y/Y in September: Finance Ministry
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Sep C 8.6B | P 10.1B
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Aug C 0.50% | P -0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Aug C 0.40% | P -0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Sep C 0.20% | P -0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Sep P 1.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core M/M Sep C 0.20% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core Y/Y Sep P 1.80%
14:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct (A) C -8 | P -8
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Euro’s remained in a tight range through the Asian session with volumes not perceptibly any better than the previous day until post ECB, Asia more or less remained in a 15 tic range from the 1.0965-80 area before moving into the London session and testing to the 1.0950 areas before gradually rising through to test through the Asian highs. The ECB release later in the day saw the market initially test to the 1.1040 levels however, the move was short lived as Draghi continued to talk of further stimulus into December saw the Bond market sold off and the Euro unable to maintain itself above the 1.10 levels crashed through to take out the bids to the 1.0940 levels and then slip back into the 1.0920 levels before finding limited support and riding out to the close around the 1.0930 levels.
- GBP: Moving towards the 1.2300 levels from the opening levels around the 1.2280 saw the market drifting having failed to push through and moving into the London session little changed on the day, the fall of the Euro caught the GBP taking it down to the 1.2210 areas in the move into the NYK session but overall the market recovered most of the losses in a lacklustre day for Cable trading towards the opening before ranging around the 1.2250 levels into the close with a weak retail sales number doing little to help the GBP.
- JPY: A weaker Euro and GBP allowed for a stronger USD overall and the USDJPY having made early gains from the opening 103.40 levels tested through into the London session holding the 103.70 areas and holding through into the NYK session, very little movement post ECB saw the market eventually push to the 104.00 levels and holding in the area through to the close in quiet trading for the USDJPY
- AUD: The Oz dipped back from its highs with the release of the unemployment numbers with full time employment index showing a slight dip to worry the market however, given the nature of the numbers unemployment showed a dip to the 5.60% level having been revised in the previous month and the drop back from the 0.7740 areas to the 77 cent level was sharp, the move through to the London session saw a steady drift lower falling back to the 0.7660 for the move into the session, London then quietly hovered around the 0.7660 levels into the NYK session when further sellers appeared and the market dropped back to the 0.7620 levels and some bids slowing any further declines through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Q3 A 5 | P 2 | R 3
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Sep A -9.8K | C 15.2K | P -3.9K | R -8.6K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Sep A 5.60% | C 5.70% | P 5.60% | R 5.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Sep A 4.37B | C 3.27B | P 3.02B | R 3.01B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Sep A -0.20% | C 0.30% | P -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Sep A -1.40% | C -1.20% | P -1.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Aug A 29.7B | C 24.3B | P 21.0B | R 27.7B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Sep A 0.00% | C 0.30% | P -0.20% | R 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 15) A 260K | C 251K | P 246K | R 247K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Oct A 9.7 | C 6.5 | P 12.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Sep A 5.47M | C 5.36M | P 5.33M | R 5.30M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Sep A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P -0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 77B | C 72B | P 79B
Good Luck,
Andy
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