Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 104.728 | EURUSD 1.09879 | AUDUSD 0.75978 | NZDUSD 0.71659 | USDCAD 1.33961 | USDCHF 0.98765 | GBPUSD 1.2189 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am London time

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.09919 | 1.0961

USDJPY                 104.945 | 104.398

GBPUSD               1.22154 | 1.21746

USDCHF               0.98879 | 0.98716

AUDUSD              0.76194 | 0.75838

USDCAD               1.34274 | 1.3397

NZDUSD               0.71655 | 0.71378

EURCHF                1.08519 | 1.08326

EURGBP               0.90193 | 0.89923

EURJPY                 115.182 | 114.676

For today

• EUR: A quiet session for the day with the Euro slipping back from the opening levels unchanged from Friday around the 1.0990 levels to test into the 1.0960 levels and hold quietly around the 1.0970 area into the London session, German retail sales and Eurozone CPI numbers are the big ones in Europe with some medium type US numbers possibly over shadowed by the Clinton/FBI commentary, Topside offers likely through to the 1.1020 levels with any weakness likely to run into further offers on a move above the 1.1040 levels and before the 1.1100 becomes vulnerable with possibly only weak offers around it however, from the 1.1140 level onwards the market is likely to see congestive offers from then on particularly if the market could make the 1.1200 levels and above. Downside bids weak all the way through to the 1.0900 areas and possibly better bids likely on a move to test the recent lows into the 1.0850 areas, with a push through that level possibly signalling a larger downward move.
• GBP: Early buying through to the Tokyo session saw the market moving off the opening 1.2190 levels to test through the 1.2210 areas before dropping just as quickly back to push through to the 1.2180 areas however, the market recovered to the opening areas and has really done very little over the course of the day, Topside offers through the 1.2200 levels are congestive and likely to be deep with the market struggling over the last month with that area to the 1.2300 levels, downside bids are likely to really kick in on a move towards the 1.2100 area and for the moment that narrow range is only likely to be broken by some comment or other from either side of the channel on Brexit that the UK government is trying to keep a lid on until everything is ready to show.
• JPY: A low opening around the 104.50 areas saw the market recovering into the Tokyo session to fill the gap from the 104.80 area close on Friday and several weak attempts to push the 104.90 level with the market generally holding around the 104.80 levels on into the London opening, Topside offers though are likely to be weak through the 105.00 areas with offers likely to start appearing on a move towards the 105.20-50 areas with possible weak stops on a break above the level however, the 106.00 area is likely to be the stronger area with the market possibly opening to a larger gain on any push through that level, downside bids a little weak through to the 104.00 areas and while that may be a little stronger the downside remains weak as long as the range is maintained with the better bids not likely to reappear until a push back through the 102.00 areas negates the current levels.
• AUD: Opening more or less in line with Friday the market held a narrow 0.7585-0.7600 level through into the Tokyo session before seeing a steady rise through to the 0.7615 highs as the market moved into the grey hours. Topside offers possibly light on a move through the 0.7640-60 levels with stronger offers likely to appear on any move above the 77 cent levels with stops not a serious threat until the market moves through the 0.7750 areas, downside bids through to possibly the 0.7540 areas before stops appear and having spent two weeks away from the area those stops have possibly built around that level and below on any failure and push towards a weak 75 cent level.

Overnight News                                                                  

JPY:

Industrial production stalled for September at 0.00% while Retail trade failed to improve against expectations

Japanese Life insurers look to diversify foreign bond holdings

NZD:

NZ business confidence declines for the month

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Building Permits M/M Sep A 0.20% | P -1.00% | R -1.50%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Sep (P) A 0.00% | C 0.90% | P 1.30%

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Sep A -1.90% | C -1.70% | P -2.10% | R -2.20%

AUD       TD Securities Inflation M/M Oct A 0.20% | P 0.40%

NZD       NBNZ Business Confidence Oct A 24.5 | P 27.9

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Sep A 10.00% | C 5.30% | P 2.50%

07:00     EUR        German Retail Sales M/M Sep C 0.20% | P -0.40%

09:30     GBP       Mortgage Approvals Sep C 62K | P 60K

09:30     GBP       M4 Money Supply M/M Sep C 0.60% | P 0.90%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Oct C 0.50% | P 0.40%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Oct (A) C 0.80% | P 0.80%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 (A) C 0.30% | P 0.30%

12:30     CAD       Industrial Product Price M/M Sep P -0.50%

12:30     CAD       Raw Materials Price Index M/M Sep P -0.70%

12:30     USD       Personal Income Sep C 0.40% | P 0.20%

12:30     USD       Personal Spending Sep C 0.60% | P 0.00%

12:30     USD       PCE Deflator M/M Sep P 0.10%

12:30     USD       PCE Deflator Y/Y Sep P 1.00%

12:30     USD       PCE Core M/M Sep C 0.10% | P 0.20%

12:30     USD       PCE Core Y/Y Sep P 1.70%

13:45     USD       Chicago PMI Oct C 54 | P 54.2

Weekend News

USD:

Clinton Presses FBI on Fresh E-Mail Probe as Race Tightens
USD: Clinton Says Comey E-Mail Move ‘Unprecedented’ as Trump Pounces
USD: Comey Said to Act on Clinton E-Mails over Lynch’s Objections
USD: FBI Said Yet to Obtain Warrant to Look at New E-Mails: Aide
OIL:

OPEC Splits Prevent Deal with Other Producers to Curb Supply
OIL: Decision on Oil Freeze Requires All Market Players: Azerbaijan
CNY/JPY/KRW:

China, Japan, South Korea Ministers to Consolidate G-20 Pledges
JPY:

Japan Cabinet Approval Rating Falls 1.8 Ppt: Kyodo Poll
EUR:

Rajoy Takes Power in Spain Promising Dialogue and Job Creation
Gabriel Says EU Rejects China ‘Foul Play’ in Takeovers: Welt
German Lawmakers See Fourth Aid Package for Greece Likely: Bild
GBP:

BOE’s Carney May Decide on Future in Coming Days, Times Says
Noonan: Don’t Think Ireland to Be Hit More by Brexit Than U.K.
JPY/GBP:

Nissan Said to Have Informed U.K. of Car Plant Closure Risks
SEK:

Sweden’s Christian Democrats Fall to 20-Year Low in Poll: DN

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: A quiet steady day unto close to the end of the day with the Asian market pushing off the 1.0900 levels eventually after trading into the Tokyo session, then managing only to push through to the London session against the 1.0910 levels, London did take it a little higher with the Confidence numbers pushing into the NYK session against the 1.0920 levels, the market continued rallying through the session even in the face of better GDP numbers and the market reacting more to the FBI release as the investigation into emails and servers used, this saw the USD dipping a little and the first half decent move to test the 1.0990 levels before running out of time.
• GBP: Cable saw a quiet rise from the lows around the 1.2155 areas to test to the 1.2190 levels into the Tokyo session before slipping back towards the opening 1.2170 into the London session with little real interest. Early London again tested the 1.2190 levels before the better confidence numbers pushed the market into EURGBP buying and the Cable found itself hitting weak stops on a move through the 1.2150 levels and testing too the 1.2120 areas, the move into the late NYK session saw the Cable recovering and pushing in late trading to above the 1.2200 levels before settling around the 1.2190 for the close.
• JPY: A steady day initially with the market ranging around the 105.20 opening levels through the day with the market pushing to the 105.50 levels into the NYK session having really struggled with the 105.10-40 range. The late move in the USD saw the USDJPY quickly drop back with it hitting the 104.50 levels before bouncing a little to the 104.80 areas and ranging in a quiet range to the close.
• AUD: The Oz had a quieter range than most of the pairs with the market opening around the 0.7590 levels and testing early in Tokyo too the day’s high just short of the 0.7610 levels before slipping slowly back into the London opening against the 0.7560 areas and the lows of the day set in the opening of NYK just below that level, the remainder of the session was spent moving from that lower to recapture the 76cent levels into the close on what was a quiet day.

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Unemployment Rate Sep A 3.00% | C 3.10% | P 3.10%

JPY         Household Spending Y/Y Sep A -2.10% | C -2.70% | P -4.60%

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Sep A -0.50% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Oct A -0.40% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%

AUD       PPI Q/Q Q3 A 0.30% | C 0.60% | P 0.10%

AUD       PPI Y/Y Q3 A 0.50% | P 1.00%

CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Oct A 104.7 | C 101.8 | P 101.3 | R 101.6

EUR        Eurozone Economic Confidence Oct A 106.3 | C 104.8 | P 104.9

EUR        Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Oct A 0.55 | C 0.46 | P 0.45 | R 0.44

EUR        Eurozone Industrial Confidence Oct A -0.6 | C -1.6 | P -1.7 | R -1.8

EUR        Eurozone Services Confidence Oct A 12 | C 10 | P 10

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct (F) A -8 | C -8.3 | P -8

EUR        German CPI M/M Oct (P) A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

EUR        German CPI Y/Y Oct (P) A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.70%

USD       Employment Cost Index Q3 A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%

USD       GDP (Annualized) Q3 (A) A 2.90% | C 2.50% | P 1.40%

USD       GDP Price Index Q3 (A) A 1.50% | C 1.30% | P 2.30%

USD       U. of Michigan Confidence Oct (F) A 87.2 | C 88.1 | P 87.9

Stay lucky

Andy

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