Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.809 | EURUSD 1.08934 | AUDUSD 0.76128 | NZDUSD 0.72275 | USDCAD 1.34708 | USDCHF 0.98689 | GBPUSD 1.25545 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09228 | 1.08758
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.938 | 106.253
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25776 | 1.25261
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98777 | 0.98461
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76297 | 0.75599
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35141 | 1.34567
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72233 | 0.71869
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07568 | 1.07436
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86906 | 0.86677
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 116.451 | 115.909
For Today
- EUR: European banks face a larger number for provisions with the average of 18% needed to meet new rules and likely to cause a few problems given the current state of some European banks which did have some effect on the market yesterday, the market opened around the 1.0890 levels and drifted through the early part of the session pushing through the 1.0880 levels before quickly pushing through to the 1.0920 levels and again for the Asian session reasonable volume for a short period and while the market spiked to that level the markets return to the 1.0900 areas saw further steadier buying moving into the market over the course of a quieter back end to the session to move into the grey hours holding close to the highs. Topside offers likely through the 1.0940 areas with light offers continuing through to the 1.0980 areas with possible weak stops appearing with possible stronger offers to the 1.1000 levels. Downside bids into the 1.0860-40 areas levels with possibly stronger stops through the level and the market opening to the 1.0500 range and the lows of 2015.
- GBP: Cable ranged sideways through the early part of the session testing from the 1.2550 areas to make the lows just through the 1.2530 level before a steady recovery to test through the session into the 1.2570’s before finding some offers appearing, Topside offers through the 1.2580 levels with a push through the 1.2600 level likely to opening up a test towards the 1.2800 levels with the market open from the big move early in October, Downside bids likely now through the 1.2400 levels with good bids likely on any move to test the level with weak stops through the 1.2370 areas and the stronger bids there after a decent way from the market.
- JPY: USDJPY slipped from the opening levels around the 106.80-90 areas drifting through the 106.50 levels and some weak stops before recovering and hold around the 106.50 areas in a rather quiet session for the USDJPY, Topside offers through the 107.00 levels with some limited offers from there and through to stronger offers into the 107.50 area a push through the level could see strong stops appearing with the market ten opening a fresh range to the 110.00 over time. Downside bids light through to the 105.00-104.80 levels and possibly building bids into that level however, in reality the market having pushed to the 101.50 levels this week could see some weakness below that level and little strength until that level which we reached on US Election Day.
- AUD: Limited day for the Oz with the early sellers taking the market from the opening 0.7610 area to test through to the 0.7560 areas into the mid-Tokyo session before recovering in light trading for the final day of the week, Topside offers light through to the 0.7740 again with that level again showing some resilience since pushing through on US Election day, however, for the moment very little data for the day may see a quiet day however, through the 0.7740 could see stops appearing but the stronger area will likely be on any test to the 0.7780-0.7800 levels and strong stops on a move through the level. Downside bids through to the 0.7540 levels will possibly see light stops appearing from the weaker longs however, the 75 cent level is possibly a little stronger with the market then protecting Septembers lows through the 0.7450 areas.
Overnight News
USD:
Trump Could Quit TPP in 1st 100 Days, Document Shows: Politico
JPY:
Japan’s Aso Says a 5-Yen Move Over 1 or 2 Days Is Abnormal
Japan Govt. Sees Need for Diet TPP Passage ’As Soon as Possible’
NZD:
New Zealand Manufacturing Expanded at Slower Pace in October
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Oct A 55.2 | P 57.7 | R 57.5
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Oct A -2.70% | C -2.60% | P -3.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M Sep A -0.10% | C -0.20% | P 0.00%
07:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Oct (F) C 0.20% | P 0.20%
07:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Oct (F) C 0.80% | P 0.80%
09:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Sep C 0.20% | P -1.50%
15:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Nov (P) C 87 | P 87.2
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: The Euro recovered a little through the Asian session pushing from the opening 1.0915 areas testing initially to the 1.0930 areas pausing and then running to above the 1.0950 in mid Tokyo before drifting between the opening and high areas through to the London session, with no data the market started to see USD buying through the early part of the session with the market dropping back from the 1.0950 levels to test through the 1.0900 levels from here the market never really recovered trading between the 1.0900 and down to the 1.0870 as media highlighted previous comments from Trump from the early campaign, this seemed to weigh on the Euro as differences between his vision and Europe is likely to see the already broken down negotiations for the trade agreement even less likely to be completed, with many other little titbits that may come under scrutiny, moving through the London/NYK session the market was reasonably volatile and although pinned in a range the volumes were very decent.
- GBP: Cable seems to be the darling of the day with the USD rise so did the Cable with the early push from the opening 1.2410 areas testing through 1.2440 in early Tokyo the market then stalled and traded quietly in the 1.2400-20 areas through to the opening in London, having seen the EURGBP falling in the fall 200 pips over the course of the previous day the market saw the EURGBP again coming under pressure again as the USD reacted differently between the GBP and Euro this triggered strong selling in the cross again and the market eventually moved into the NYK session pushing through the 0.8800 levels and spending the balance of the London session pushing towards 0.8660 to hold through to the close, Cable having been restrained through the Asian session pushed steadily higher from the early lows in London around the 1.2380 levels to trade through too late in the session testing the 1.2580 levels before running out of steam, with strong volumes through the day.
- JPY: With the USDJPY recovering from election day opened just below the 106.00 levels pushed slightly through into the Tokyo opening before slipping back a little as light profit taking and EURJPY selling moved through the market, and the USDJPY dipped to the 105.00 levels over the course of a few hours before recovering a little to move into the London session in mid-range, the London market pushed the market through the 106.00 levels and although there were some light stops the move continued only steadily and forced its way through to the 106.95 areas and resistance into the 107.00 levels and given the volumes.
- AUD: The Oz saw strong buying through the Asian session with cross Oz buying driving the market starting from the opening with AUD/NZD as the Kiwi’s cut rates again and then as the USDJPY drifted off the Oz found further buyers as the AUDJPY came into focus with a slipping USDJPY, the move into the London session saw the market pushing through the 77 cent levels and some weak stops on a move towards the 0.7740 levels, as with the early cross buying the rise of USDJPY again saw the Oz slipping off that 0.7740 area and falling steadily back from the early NYK sellers dropping the market back through the 0.7640 opening levels in the first hour and holding for a short period with initial jobless claims number in the US pushing the market back through the 0.7620 areas and triggering weak stops through the 7600 levels to test through the 0.7580 area and stronger bids appearing. The market then based around the 76 cent levels through to the close in the market.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Rate Decision A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 2.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Summary of Opinions
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Sep A -3.30% | C -2.00% | P -2.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Nov A 3.20% | P 3.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Oct A 23.00% | C 18.00% | P 17.00% | R 18.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Sep A 1.60% | C -0.50% | P -3.00% | R -2.70%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Sep A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 5) A 254K | C 267K | P 265K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 54B | R 53B | P 54B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Oct A -$44B | C -$84.4B | P $33.4B
Good Luck,
Andy
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