Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.423 | EURUSD 1.07369 | AUDUSD 0.75541 | NZDUSD 0.70908 | USDCAD 1.35604 | USDCHF 0.99798 | GBPUSD 1.2489 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.07716 | 1.07341

USDJPY                 108.459 | 107.79

GBPUSD               1.25294 | 1.24695

USDCHF               0.99810 | 0.99485

AUDUSD              0.75817 | 0.75425

USDCAD               1.35578 | 1.35294

NZDUSD               0.71447 | 0.70966

EURCHF                1.07271 | 1.07122

EURGBP               0.86177 | 0.85838

EURJPY                 116.492 | 116.12

For Today

• EUR: A push as the Tokyo market opened saw the Euro push to the 1.0770 levels before the market drifted back to hold the 1.0750, Topside offers likely through the 1.0800 levels maybe weak with weak stops likely through the 1.0810-20 areas and the market quickly moving to fill yesterday’s gap to the 1.0860 levels and a free move available into weak offers around the 1.0900 levels. Downside bids into the 1.0700 levels with limited bids on the move through to the sentimental levels with limited bids through to the 1.0500 stronger levels.
• GBP: Cable opened around the 1.2500 areas and pushed into the Tokyo session testing the 1.2530 areas before slipping slowly lower as the USD continues to slowly climb, trading back to the 1.2480 areas and holding around the level into London. Downside bids light through the 1.2450 areas with better bids likely to be in the 1.2400 area, a move through the level will possibly see weak stops on a drop through to the 1.2350 levels and the market open to a large retreat. Topside offers through the 1.2600 levels and increasing as the market moves towards the 1.2700 area. Big set of numbers through the day with inflationary data and the 200 DMA around the current levels.
• JPY: A limited range for the day as the market seems to be taking stock for the time being, early selling of USDJPY saw the market drop from the 108.40 levels to test through the 108.00 levels but the setback was limited and the market eventually returned to trade around the 108.20 levels through to the London session. Topside offers light through the 108.50 areas with stronger offers likely to appear on a move towards the 109.00 areas however, congestive offers appear from then into the 110.00 levels and likely to be stronger into that level.
• AUD: The Oz saw a limited rise in the lead up with to the RBA minutes but with less than a murmur in the market drifted back to the 0.7550 levels from the highs around the 0.7580 areas. Topside offers light into the 76 cent levels with stronger offers not really expected until the market tests to the 77 cent areas. Downside bids into the 0.7520 levels with weak stops likely through the figure and the market opening to a quick move to the 74 cent levels.

Overnight News

USD:

Williams Says Fed Is Focused on its Dual Mandate

China Long-term Growth Prospects May Be Changing: Fed’s Williams

Fed’s Lacker: More Fiscal Stimulus Bolsters Case for Rate Hikes

SEC’s White Announces Plans to Leave at End of Administration

JPY:

Abe: Would Shift Focus to Trade Pact Including China if TPP Fails

Japan’s Biggest Mutual Fund to Cut Dividend: Nikkei

AUD:

RBA: Inflation Forecast Risks Balanced; Housing Mkt Complicated

AUD: IMF Says Australia’s Monetary Policy Should Remain Accommodative

CNY/USD:

RMB Drop VS Dollar Follows Shift in FRX Basket: Fed’s Williams

CNY:

China Banks’ Off-Balance Sheet Risk Boosts Capital Needs: Fitch

SGD:

Singapore September Retail Sales +2% Y/y; Est. +2%

HKD:

HKMA’s Chan Says to Closely Monitor Hong Kong Property Market

NZD:

New Zealand Services Industry Grew at Faster Pace in October

AUD:

Australia ANZ Weekly Consumer Confidence Rises 0.3% to 118.2

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q3 A -0.80% | C 0.80% | P 2.30% | R 1.80%

AUD       RBA Minutes

07:00     EUR        German GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) C 0.30% | P 0.40%

09:00     EUR        Italian GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) C 0.20% | P 0.00%

09:30     GBP       CPI M/M Oct C 0.30% | P 0.20%

09:30     GBP       CPI Y/Y Oct C 1.10% | P 1.00%

09:30     GBP       Core CPI Y/Y Oct C 1.50% | P 1.50%

09:30     GBP       RPI M/M Oct C 0.10% | P 0.20%

09:30     GBP       RPI Y/Y Oct C 2.20% | P 2.00%

09:30     GBP       PPI Input M/M Oct C 1.90% | P 0.00%

09:30     GBP       PPI Input Y/Y Oct C 9.20% | P 7.20%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output M/M Oct C 0.30% | P 0.20%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output Y/Y Oct C 1.70% | P 1.20%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output Core M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 0.10%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output Core Y/Y Oct  C 1.70% | P 1.40%

09:30     GBP       House Price Index Y/Y Sep C 8.10% | P 8.40%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Sep C 22.3B | P 23.3B

10:00     EUR        German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Nov C 8.9 | P 6.2

10:00     EUR        German ZEW (Current Situation) Nov C 61.9 | P 59.5

10:00     EUR        Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Nov C 14.3 | P 12.3

10:00     EUR        Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) C 0.30% | P 0.30%

13:30     USD       Import Price Index M/M Oct C 0.60% | P 0.10%

13:30     USD       Empire State Manufacturing Nov C -1 | P -6.8

13:30     USD       Import Price Index Y/Y Oct C 0.40% | P -1.10%

13:30     USD       Advance Retail Sales Oct C 0.50% | P 0.60%

13:30     USD       Retail Sales Less Autos Oct C 0.60% | P 0.50%

15:00     USD       Business Inventories Sep C 0.20% | P 0.20%

Harry Hindsight              

• EUR: Trading lower through the day the market moved from the low opening around the 1.0840 areas and dipped into the Tokyo session pushing through the 1.0800 levels triggering light stops on a move to the 1.0780 levels and then ranging through into the London session holding the 1.0810-1.0780 levels, London sold the market quickly from the opening pushing through to the 1.0730 levels as concerns between Europe and the US builds, the market lifted a little from the lows but struggled through the 1.0780 levels and held around the level into the NYK session where further sellers moved into the market to push through to make new lows around the 1.0710 areas before rising into the London close and ranging through the 1.0730-40 levels to the close.
• GBP: Cable struggled through the day having topped just below the 1.2600 level early in pre-Tokyo, cross selling saw the market drop back quickly through to the 1.2520 areas before bouncing back towards the opening 1.2580 levels, London opening saw selling in the market as the Euro dragged on the GBP with the cross EURGBP remaining in a tight range and the Cable holding early trading at the 1.2500 levels before breaking after an hour of trying and triggering weak stops to the 1.2460 levels before steady buying took the market back to the 1.2560 levels and the NYK opening, the USD pushed higher again and the Cable was quickly chased to the 1.2450 areas eventually bouncing back to the 1.2500 levels to range to the close.
• JPY: Opening around the 106.80 levels the move into the Tokyo session saw the market quickly move through to the 107.40 levels as the USD buying quickly moved in, the market then held the 107.40-50 areas through to the London opening and the market steadily pushed through towards the 108.00 levels before holding steady through to the NYK session with only one blip through the level, NYK bought through to the 108.40 levels from just after the opening and the market ranged through to the close holding the 108.00 levels and topping around the 108.50 levels to the close.
• AUD: Opening around the 0.7550 levels the market ranged through the day around that level with the market dipping through the 0.7530 levels several times but never able to really push to low and holding the 0.7560 areas in a tight range with nothing special for the market to do.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%

JPY         GDP Deflator Y/Y Q3 (P) A -0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.70%

CNY        Industrial Production Y/Y Oct A 6.10% | C 6.20% | P 6.10%

CNY        Retail Sales Y/Y Oct A 10.00% | C 10.70% | P 10.70%

CNY        Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Oct A 8.30% | C 8.20% | P 8.20%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Sep (F) A 0.60% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%

CHF        Producer & Import Prices M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%

CHF        Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Oct A -0.20% | P -0.10%

EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Sep A -0.80% | C -0.90% | P 1.60% | R 1.80%

Good Luck,

Andy

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