Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.197 | EURUSD 1.07223 | AUDUSD 0.75592 | NZDUSD 0.70977 | USDCAD 1.34479 | USDCHF 1.00184 | GBPUSD 1.2454 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.07596 | 1.07180

USDJPY                 109.229 | 108.790

GBPUSD               1.24817 | 1.24354

USDCHF               1.00200 | 0.99839

AUDUSD              0.75716 | 0.75401

USDCAD               1.34663 | 1.34236

NZDUSD               0.71131 | 0.70829

EURCHF                1.07484 | 1.07405

EURGBP               0.86260 | 0.86048

EURJPY                 117.405 | 116.801

For Today

• EUR: A quiet session overall with the Euro edging higher through the Asian session from the opening around the 1.0720 levels pushing through to the 1.0760 levels before ranging in the 1.0740-50 levels through into the London session, Topside offers through the 1.0820 areas with weak stops likely above the level and then further offers into the 1.0840-60 areas and stronger offer into the 1.0900 areas and onwards. Downside bids into the 1.0720-00 areas with a strong push here opening up the Downside for a larger move with very little to protect except the sentimental areas.
• GBP: The market again made its way to the 200 DMA and for the moment the level now looks to be unimportant, moving off the 1.2460 levels the market found limited bids through the 1.2450 areas testing to the 1.2440 area before moving into the Tokyo session and limited cross buying opening the market to a steady move to the 1.2480 levels and a quiet range from then on into the London session, Topside offers light into the 1.2520 areas with a push through the level likely to see small stops appearing and slightly better offers on a move through the 1.2550 areas and stronger offers then appearing through the 1.2600 levels and onwards, Downside bids into the 1.2400 areas and through into 1.2350 where better bids are likely to be waiting with stops below and open to the 1.2200 areas.
• JPY: The USDJPY drifted from the opening with the market unable to continue the solid rally we saw yesterday, the market drifted from the 109.20 levels pushing back through the 109.00 areas to test the 108.80 in a weak move before holding above the figure level through into the London session, Topside offer into the 109.20 levels will likely see stops appearing and the market making a quick move towards the 110.00 levels and possibly stronger offers around that level with sentimental selling and then congestive offers through to the 110.50 areas before weakness starts to appear into the 111.00-50 level. Downside bids light through the 109.00 levels and likely to see limited strength into the 108.00 areas, a break below the 107.80 areas is likely to see some weak stops appearing and the market opening for a move back to the 106.00 levels however; inflationary figures in the US could be the important numbers for the day.
• AUD: Another rangy day with the market still trapped in a tight range with the market moving off the initial lows around the 0.7540 levels to test the 0.7570 areas before returning to the lows again into the London session. Topside offers into the 0.7580-0.7600 levels with weak stops likely through the area and possible fresh run to the 77 cent levels and strong offers through the level. Downside bids into the 0.7520 areas still in play and the market likely to see some lighter bids on the move through with strong bids appearing into the 0.7450 areas and stops likely below the level.

Overnight News

CNY:

China Sure to Achieve Full-Year Economic Targets, Premier Says

China Fundamentals Don’t Support Yuan Depreciation: Sec. News

EUR/GBP:

Dijsselbloem Says Brexit Will Be ‘Lose-Lose’ for U.K. Business

JPY:

Kuroda: Can’t Be Optimistic About Japan Regional Banks’ Profits

Abe Adviser Hamada Has ‘Changed’ View on Monetary Policy: Nikkei

JPY/RUB:

Japan Sees Economic Deals With Russia as Business, Not Charity

JPY/EUR:

Japan to Add Ministerial Heft in Push for EU Trade Pact: Nikkei

AUD:

Australia 3Q Wage Price Index Rises 0.4% Q/Q; Est. 0.5%

NZD:

N.Z. Finance Minister Says No Estimate of Earthquake Costs Yet

RBNZ Lowers USD Weighting in Trade Weighted Index

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       Westpac Leading Index M/M Oct A 0.10% | P 0.10%

AUD       Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q3 A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%

09:30     GBP       Jobless Claims Change Oct C 2.3K | P 0.7K

09:30     GBP       Claimant Count Rate Oct P 2.30%

09:30     GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Sep C 2.30% | P 2.30%

09:30     GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Sep C 4.90% | P 4.90%

10:00     CHF        ZEW (Expectations) Nov P 5.2

13:30     CAD       Manufacturing Shipments M/M Sep C -0.20% | P 0.90%

13:30     USD       PPI M/M Oct C 0.30% | P 0.30%

13:30     USD       PPI Y/Y Oct C 1.20% | P 0.70%

13:30     USD       PPI Core M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 0.20%

13:30     USD       PPI Core Y/Y Oct C 1.50% | P 1.20%

14:15     USD       Industrial Production Oct C 0.10% | P 0.10%

14:15     USD       Capacity Utilization Oct C 75.40% | P 75.40%

15:00     USD       NAHB Housing Market Index Nov C 63 | P 63

15:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P 2.4M

21:00     USD       Net Long-term TIC Flows Sep P 48.3B

Harry Hindsight              

• EUR: Moving off the opening 1.0740 levels the move into Tokyo saw the market quickly move to the 1.0770 levels before drifting off and holding around the 1.0750 areas through into the London session, Early European numbers showed mixed results but with a rise in GDP in Italy as we lead into the Italian elections were the ones that seemed to be waited for, the Euro quickly moved to the 1.0780 levels before holding for a brief period before heading quickly through to the 1.0810 levels before starting a steady drift lower as the USD started to climb steadily higher through into the NYK session testing again to the 1.0720 levels and ranging quietly into the close.
• GBP: Cable made early highs pushing into the Tokyo session to test the 1.2530 levels before drifting steadily lower through the Asian session, London opened around the 1.2470 levels the market failed to push beyond the 1.2500 levels with headline inflationary data showing declines however, manufacturing input figures showed marked rises likely to eventually push through into the headline figures in the future, the fall on the headline numbers saw the Cable tipping to the 1.2400 levels after pausing briefly around the 1.2450 areas, then holding the figure through into the NYK session the market again attempted to push lower testing the 1.2380 areas before returning to the 1.2400 level and a steady push back through the latter part of the session with weak stops triggered through the 1.2450 levels to push above the 1.2500 level and then dropping back to 1.2450 and holding to the close.
• JPY: USDJPY started the day drifting lower into the Tokyo session and holding the 107.80 levels through the Asian session never quiet recovering the 108.30 opening levels , the move through into the London session saw little difference with the market holding in a tight range however, the move into the NYK session and the release of the advance retail sales numbers saw the USD quickly rising through to the 108.80 levels and struggling through to the 109.00 areas late into the session to push through to the 109.30 areas before drifting slightly to the close.
• AUD: Another quiet day for the Oz with the market buffeted slightly by cross trading however, the market for the most part traded around the 0.7550 levels with the market rising early in the session to test the 0.7580 areas before holding steady along the 0.7550 areas through into the London session and then dipping a little into the opening period in NYK to the 0.7510 areas, the market returned to the 0.7550 levels to hold quietly through to the end of the day.

Yesterday’s premiership results

NZD       Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q3 A -0.80% | C 0.80% | P 2.30% | R 1.80%

AUD       RBA Minutes

EUR        German GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%

EUR        Italian GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.00%

GBP       CPI M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%

GBP       CPI Y/Y Oct A 0.90% | C 1.10% | P 1.00%

GBP       Core CPI Y/Y Oct A 1.20% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%

GBP       RPI M/M Oct A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%

GBP       RPI Y/Y Oct A 2.00% | C 2.20% | P 2.00%

GBP       PPI Input M/M Oct A 4.60% | C 1.90% | P 0.00% | R 0.10%

GBP       PPI Input Y/Y Oct A 12.20% | C 9.20% | P 7.20% | R 7.30%

GBP       PPI Output M/M Oct A 0.60% | C 0.30% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%

GBP       PPI Output Y/Y Oct A 2.10% | C 1.70% | P 1.20% | R 1.30%

GBP       PPI Output Core M/M Oct A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%

GBP       PPI Output Core Y/Y Oct A 1.90% | C 1.70% | P 1.40%

GBP       House Price Index Y/Y Sep A 7.70% | C 8.10% | P 8.40% | R 7.70%

EUR        Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Sep A 24.9B | C 22.3B | P 23.3B

EUR        German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Nov A 13.8 | C 8.9 | P 6.2

EUR        German ZEW (Current Situation) Nov A 58.8 | C 61.9 | P 59.5

EUR        Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Nov A 15.8 | C 14.3 | P 12.3

EUR        Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%

USD       Import Price Index M/M Oct A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.10%

USD       Empire State Manufacturing Nov A 1.5 | C -1 | P -6.8

USD       Advance Retail Sales Oct A 0.80% | C 0.50% | P 0.60% | R 1.00%

USD       Retail Sales Less Autos Oct A 0.80% | C 0.60% | P 0.50% | R 0.70%

USD       Business Inventories Sep A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%

Good Luck,

Andy

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