Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.332 | EURUSD 1.05538 | AUDUSD 0.7408 | NZDUSD 0.69952 | USDCAD 1.34913 | USDCHF 1.01688 | GBPUSD 1.24514 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.05781 | 1.05383
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.902 | 113.169
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24578 | 1.24287
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01863 | 1.01557
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74397 | 0.7400
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35156 | 1.3482
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70251 | 0.69847
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07429 | 1.07326
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.84961 | 0.84709
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.165 | 119.527
For Today
- EUR: Opening around the 1.0555 levels the market struggled into the Tokyo session pushing a little higher before dropping quickly lower on the Tokyo opening to test to the 1.0540, with limited trading the market eventually started to push higher as a consequence of cross JPY buying to take the market towards the 1.0580 levels before finding limited resistance. Topside offers light through the 1.0580-1.0600 areas with stronger offers then kicking in with congestion to the 1.0650 levels and likely weak stops on a push through the 1.0660 areas. Downside bids into the 1.0550 areas and increasing on any attempt to the 1.0500 levels, a break through the 1.0480 areas will likely see strong stops appearing and the market opening to a deeper move.
- GBP: The Cable ranged reasonably quietly through the session with the market dipping on the opening in Tokyo to test to the 1.2430 levels before returning to the opening 1.2450 level and holding quietly through the session, with topside offers into the 1.2500 levels and likely to continue through to the 1.2550 area, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops appearing and the market able to test the 1.2600 level and further, Downside bids into the 1.2400 level with the market seeing bids through to the 1.2350 areas before weak stops are likely to appear with further bids into the 1.2300 level likely to be a little more substantive.
- JPY: While the CPI number was in line with expectations the market saw JPY weakness from the release and the move into the Tokyo session saw the USDJPY pushing through the 113.40 levels quickly from the low around 113.20 and testing into the 113.80’s before finding offers sufficient to hole the market, as the day wore on the gains were lost as the market drifted lower into the opening areas with early Europeans buying into the grey hours. Topside offers into the 113.80-114.00 sees congestion through to the 114.80 areas and likely stops on a move through the 115.20 areas for a push for the 118 areas opening. Downside bids light through to the 112.00 where there is likely to be some support however, the market has come a long way with very little resistance and the downside is likely to be fairly weak with 111.80-112.00 providing limited support and the 110.00 levels likely to be the stronger area.
- AUD: The move through into the Tokyo session saw limited buying and it wasn’t until the USDJPY had made its move that the AUDJPY became more active and the Oz pushed off the 74 cent lows to test to the 0.7430-40 areas moving into the grey hours after ranging quietly around the 0.7430 for the bulk of the session, Topside offers through to the 0.7460 and a break through this level will likely see weak stops triggering an attempt to push through the 0.7480-0.7500 areas however, beyond this level is the 0.7540-80 range from early in the month and likely to provide plenty of resistance, downside bids into the 0.7400 level likely to be weak with a push through the level not really that difficult however, what support there is, is likely to be in depth through to the 0.7360 areas and the weak stops are not likely to appear in significant size until the 73 cent level is tested with the congestion continuing all the way down.
Overnight News
JPY:
Japan Oct. Core Consumer Prices Fall 0.4% Y/y; Est. -0.4%
Japanese Sold Net 260.6 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
JPY/RUB:
Japan Told Russia Island Missile Placement Regrettable: Abe
NZD:
N.Z. Trade Deficit Narrowed as Dairy Sales Offset Plane Purchase
CNY:
Yuan Volatility Reflects Global Forex Market Moves: Fin. News
China Vice Premier Says German Concerns Unfounded: Handelsblatt
SGD:
Singapore October Factory Output +1.2% Y/y; Est. +1%
CHF:
SNB Says Some Lenders Show ‘Imprudent’ Stance on Rate Risks
CZK:
Benda Says Longer ECB QE Would Make Czech FX Cap Exit Harder: HN
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
21:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Oct A -846M | C -950M | P -1436M | R -1394M
23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Oct A -0.40% | C -0.40% | P -0.50%
23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov A -0.40% | C -0.40% | P -0.40%
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Oct A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%
9:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) C 0.50% | P 0.50%
9:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Sep C 0.80% | P 0.80%
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Realized Sales Nov C 12 | P 21
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance Oct C -59.2B | P -56.5B
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Oct (P) C 0.30% | P 0.10%
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A reasonably quiet day as you’d expect on US thanksgiving, opening around the 1.0550 levels the market in Asia drifted lower through the session holding around the 1.0530 areas into the mid-session and then trading back to the opening levels as the market moved to the grey hours drifting in front of the German GDP numbers the market limped through to the 1.0520 levels before quickly moving higher in a limited session to push to the 1.0580 levels and hold through the session until the end of London when it returned to the opening areas till the close.
- GBP: After a quiet session in Asia the market holding around the opening 1.2430 levels the move into the grey hours saw the Cable dip into the London session as the follow through from the previous days autumn statement with analysts and media talking about a budget designed to limit wages for those that can ill afford the limitation however, think this is more the consequence of the 8yrs of falling interest rates and rising prices on the stuff that isn’t measured for inflation purposes. The dip took the market to the 1.2400 levels before a strong rally through to the 1.2495 areas through the first few hours into midsession initially ranging widely in a thin market the session gradually settled into a narrowing range through to the close around the 1.2450 close.
- JPY: USDJPY slowly traded higher through the day, with the market pushing from the 11250 openings to test through in Asia to the 112.80 levels and holding quietly through into the London session before pushing quickly through the 1.1300 levels and triggering weak stops on the move through the level to pushing through to the 113.50 areas, the market hen retraced the level a little before slowly rising through the day never quiet reaching the highs.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7485 levels the market slipped a little lower as a consequence of the rising USD into the Tokyo session ranging from then onwards from the 0.7365 lows to the opening levels into the London session, London were buyers through the early part of the session pushing the Oz through the 74 cent levels to trigger some weak stops through to the 0.7420 areas and although the market retraced a little after the rally the market ranged through the rest of the day between the 0.7400-15 areas with the range narrowing to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Nov (P) A 51.1 | C 51.7 | P 51.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q3 (F) A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Nov A 110.4 | C 110.6 | P 110.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Nov A 115.6 | C 115 | P 115
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Nov A 105.5 | C 106.3 | P 106.1
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals Oct A 40.9K | C 38.8K | P 38.3K | R 38.7K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Dec A 9.8 | C 9.8 | P 9.7
Good Luck,
Andy
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