Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 114.462 | EURUSD 1.05893 | AUDUSD 0.73826 | NZDUSD 0.70824 | USDCAD 1.34372 | USDCHF 1.01747 | GBPUSD 1.25066 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.06176 | 1.05856

USDJPY                 114.833 | 113.874

GBPUSD               1.25422 | 1.25030

USDCHF               1.01752 | 1.01513

AUDUSD              0.74180 | 0.73746

USDCAD               1.34386 | 1.33855

NZDUSD               0.70983 | 0.70733

EURCHF                1.07794 | 1.0769

EURGBP               0.84766 | 0.84501

EURJPY                 121.574 | 120.844

For Today

• EUR: Currencies for a change were limited in movement with the Euro rising from the opening around 1.0590 and eventually pushing through the 1.0600 into the grey hours, Topside light through the 1.0650 areas and becoming stronger on a test to the 1.0680-1.0700 level, a push through this level see’s limited congestion on further rises through to the 1.0780-1.0800 levels with possible stronger stops on a move through the 1.0820 area. Downside bids into the 1.0550 levels are fairly strong and have held for the most part however, a push through the 1.0500 areas could possibly see strong stops appearing and the market opening to the 1.0220 levels.
• GBP: Cable creeped higher into the Tokyo session pushing through the 1.2540 levels but unable to hold the level and slipping back to the opening levels and then rising to hold the 1.2520 levels for the bulk of the session, offers into the 1.2550 areas will likely see weak stops on a move through the level with the market open then to a test to the 1.2600 areas and weak stops building into stronger levels through the 1.2630 area. Downside bids congested 1.2450 level and stronger bids now into the 1.2400 level, a move through the area is still limited to the next sentimental level with 1.2300 likely to be key to any further losses.
• JPY: The USDJPY peaked at the 114.80 levels in an early run before the Tokyo session before dipping back on the opening of Tokyo to the 114.40 levels moving through the session along the level for a couple of hours before slipping back lower to test the 114.00 areas into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 114.80-115.20 areas is likely to see reasonable selling again and likely weak stops building through the level as with the 113.00 areas, a push through the 115.20 areas levels though will likely see a quick move through to the 116.00 levels with only weak offers suspected. Downside bids light through to the 112.00 areas with likely limited bids into the area, limited congestion through the 111.50 areas will see limited bids into 111.00.
• AUD: Opening around the 0.7380 areas the market started a steady rise higher with the slight weakness in the USDJPY pushing through to the 0.7420 areas as the market moved into the grey hours. Topside offers through into the 0.7450 areas are likely to be a little weak with stronger offers then appearing on a move towards the 0.7480-0.7500 levels weak stops beyond the level will likely be absorbed on a move to the 0.7550 areas. Downside bids into the 0.7380 areas are limited but have held in the past 24hrs a break below will likely see weak stops appearing and the market opening to a test through the limited bids around the 0.7350 areas and into stronger 0.7300 areas

Overnight News

CNY:

China Nov. Manufacturing PMI at 51.7; Est. 51.0

Caixin China Nov. Manufacturing PMI 50.9; Est. 51

China Said to Set New Rules on Overseas Yuan Loans: Reuters

China Said to Tighten Gold Import Quotas, FT Reports

Ex-SAFE Official Says Unswerving Yuan Bears May Be Stubborn: News

KRW/CNY:

S.Korea to Offer More Incentives to Won-Yuan Market Makers

JPY:

BOJ’s Sakurai Says Best if FX is Stable, Without Big Moves

BOJ’s Sakurai: Will Continue Large JGB Buys to Control Rates

Japanese Bought Net 112.3 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week

Japan 3Q Capital Spending fell 1.3% Y/y; Est. -0.4%

Nikkei Japan Nov. Manufacturing PMI 51.3 vs 51.4 in Oct.

S&P’s Sheard Says OPEC Deal, Yen Weakness Help BOJ Policy

AUD:

Australian 3Q Business Investment Falls 4% Q/Q; Est 3% Decline

Australia Nov. Manufacturing Index Rises 3.3 Pts M/m to 54.2

NZD:

New Zealand House-Price Inflation Slowest in Six Months, QV Says

New Zealand Export Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Quarter

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q3 A -1.80% | C 0.10% | P -2.10% | R -2.50%

JPY         Capital Spending excl Software Q3 A -1.30% | C -0.40% | P 3.10%

AUD       Private Capital Expenditure Q3 A -4.00% | C -2.80% | P -5.40% | R -5.20%

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Nov (F) A 51.3 | C 51.1 | P 51.1

CNY        Manufacturing PMI Nov A 51.7 | C 51 | P 51.2

CNY        Non-manufacturing PMI Nov A 54.7 | P 54

CNY        Caixin PMI Manufacturing Nov A 50.9 | C 50.9 | P 51.2

08:15     CHF        Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Oct C -2.00% | P -2.30%

08:30     CHF        SVME PMI Nov C 54.5 | P 54.7

08:45     EUR        Italy Manufacturing PMI Nov C 51.4 | P 50.9

08:50     EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) C 51.5 | P 51.5

08:55     EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) C 54.4 | P 54.4

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) C 53.7 | P 53.7

09:30     GBP       PMI Manufacturing Nov C 54.4 | P 54.3

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct P 10.00%

12:30     USD       Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Nov P -39.10%

13:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 26) C 252K | P 251K

15:00     USD       Construction Spending M/M Oct C 0.50% | P -0.40%

15:00     USD       ISM Manufacturing Nov C 52 | P 51.9

15:00     USD       ISM Prices Paid Nov C 52 | P 54.5

15:30     USD       Natural Gas Storage P -2B

Harry Hindsight              

• EUR: A steady range through the Asian session with the market slowly slipping lower into the London session, opening around the 1.0650 levels the early Tokyo session saw the market test to the 1.0660 levels before starting the steady dip lower, moving towards the London session the market touched to the 1.0620 levels early buyers saw the Euro quickly rise back through to the highs and as before struggle to break through trading again into the 1.0660’s testing the market for the third time in the day and the last time as the move into the NYK session saw the market dropping back with Eurozone numbers unchanged and the US numbers beginning to see the USD moving quickly with better employment, and decent mixture of other numbers sending the USD higher against the Euro, the move through the 1.0600 levels was a struggle however, the break through the 1.0580 areas and the market quickly into the 1.0550 levels before bouncing back towards the 1.0600 levels and holding around the level to the close.
• GBP: Opening around the 1.2490 levels the market dipped into the midsession in Tokyo testing the 1.2470 levels before recovering a little for the move into the London session, rising through the early part to test lightly through the 1.2500 area, strong EURGBP buying forced the Cable leg lower and the market dipped back to the 1.2420 levels triggering some weak stops on the move however, it was a sharp move and the market slowly tested back to the opening levels into the NYK session, good US employment numbers led the market higher and the GBP was one of the beneficiaries as the recent EURGBP buyers cut there longs and the Cable held its own for the most part, the move to the close of the London session saw further Cable buying and the Cable tested through the 1.2500 levels again however, unlike the first push it remained above the level through to the close.
• JPY: Early sellers into the Tokyo session saw the market lows on a test towards the 112.00 levels and then a steady rise through into the NYK session, with the market heading initially into the London session testing the 112.80 areas with a brief move to the 113.00 area but failing, the move through the London session saw a steady push through the 113.00 levels in the first few hours, the market then spent a few hours continuing the gradual rise and as the market moved into the NYK option cut USD rallied strongly with the market running to the London close testing through the 114.00 areas saw weak stops and the market testing through the 114.40 levels, the market remained in the 114.40 areas to the close.
• AUD: A little bit of a drift through the Asian session with the market making early highs just short of the 0.7500 area and slipping to lows just above the 0.7470 before heading into the London session little changed from the opening, the move through into the London session though saw the Oz slowly moving lower as the USD rose against the JPY with the market moving into the NYK opening testing the 0.7450 levels and triggering small weak stops and testing to the 0.7410 levels before briefly holding however, the break through the level saw the market top quickly through to the 0.7380 areas before holding the area for the run to the close.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Oct (P) A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.60%

NZD       NBNZ Business Confidence Nov A 20.5 | P 24.5

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence Nov A -8 | C -4 | P -3

AUD       Building Approvals M/M Oct A -12.60% | C 2.20% | P -8.70% | R -9.30%

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Oct A 13.70% | C 11.50% | P 10.00%

CHF        UBS Consumption Indicator Oct A 1.49 | P 1.59

CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Nov A 102.2 | C 104.3 | P 104.7 | R 103.9

EUR        German Unemployment Change Nov A -5K | C -6K | P -13k

EUR        German Unemployment Rate Nov A 6.00% | C 6.00% | P 6.00%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.50%

EUR        Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Nov (A) A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%

USD       ADP Employment Change Nov A 216K | C 160K | P 147K | R 119K

USD       Personal Income Oct A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.30% | R 0.40%

USD       Personal Spending Oct A 0.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.50% | R 0.70%

USD       PCE Deflator M/M Oct A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%

USD       PCE Deflator Y/Y Oct A 1.40% | P 1.20%

USD       PCE Core M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.10% | R 0.10%

USD       PCE Core Y/Y Oct A 1.70% | P 1.70%

CAD       GDP M/M Sep A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%

CAD       Industrial Product Price M/M Oct A 0.40% | C 0.70% | P 0.40%

CAD       Raw Materials Price Index M/M Oct A 3.30% | C 3.20% | P -0.10% | R 0.00%

USD       Chicago PMI Nov A 57.6 | C 52.3 | P 50.6

USD       Pending Home Sales M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 1.50% | R 1.40%

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A -0.9M | C 0.7M | P -1.3M

USD       Federal Reserve Beige Book

Good Luck,

Andy

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.