Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.757 | EURUSD 1.07535 | AUDUSD 0.74818 | NZDUSD 0.71527 | USDCAD 1.32349 | USDCHF 1.00732 | GBPUSD 1.26246 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07855 | 1.07486
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.865 | 113.125
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26656 | 1.26158
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00891 | 1.00556
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75087 | 0.74749
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32368 | 1.32087
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72234 | 0.71647
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08425 | 1.08309
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85256 | 0.85042
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.453 | 121.977
For Today
- EUR: A quiet climb higher saw the Euro move up to test beyond the 1.0780 levels in light trading and a slightly weaker USD with the market moving off the opening 1.0750 areas, Topside offers into the 1.0800 levels will likely see weak stops on a move through the 1.0820 areas however, a move through the level will likely see stronger offers through the 1.0840-60 area with the stops likely through the area and the market open to the 1.1000 level and stronger offers. Downside bids light into the 1.0700 levels with the area penetrated several times and better bids likely into the 1.0650 areas and congestion likely to see bids all the way through to the 1.0550 levels. ECB rate decision likely to be no change with little good news to change their view.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2620 areas the market moved higher as the Tokyo session opened on the back of the vote by MP’s to back the government’s stance on article 50 by 448 vs. 75 this out of the way leaves the Government free to start the preparations and move forward with Brexit, Cable moved quickly above the 1.2660 levels on the Tokyo opening and then ranged around the 1.2640-60 level through to the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 1.2700 levels and the market seeing stronger offers only when the market reaches towards the highs of Monday around the 1.2770 areas, with possible weak stops beyond and then better offers into the sentimental 1.2800 level. From there limited offers through to the 1.2900 levels which will leave the market open to ranges from September. Downside bids light into the 1.2600 areas with weak stops below opening the market to a test back to the 1.2500 stronger bids and congestion from then on.
- JPY: From the opening around the 113.80 areas the market dipped back before the release of the GDP figures and a little weaker than expected, the market barely reacted to the news and pushed briefly above the 113.80 levels before dipping quietly through to the 113.20 areas before finding support and a little bounce back to the 113.60 areas, Topside offers likely to be weak through the 114.00 areas and likely to continue through to the 114.40 areas and stronger offers, with possible stops through the 114.50-60 areas setting up a test to the 115.00 stronger levels. Downside sees strong congestive bids into the 113.00 levels with a push through the level seeing some weak support continuing to the reasonable 112.00 areas however, a breakthrough there is likely to see a quick test to the 111.00 areas.
- AUD: A steady rise yesterday set the market up for the first test of the 75 cent level since the break lower from the beginning of November however, the market tested through the level a few times and ran into offers each time and struggled towards the 0.7510 levels before drifting back through to the 0.7495 area, eventually the market lost focus and started a steady drift to the 0.7485 levels into the grey hours, Topside offers obviously remain through the 75 cent levels before weak stops on a move through the 0.7560 area allows the market to move back into the Jul-Nov ranges with possible congestion through the sentimental levels, Downside bids into the 73 cent levels with possible weak stops through the levels and the market opening to a fresh move down to the 0.7150 strong bids.
Overnight News
CNY:
China Nov. Exports Rise 5.9% Y/y in Yuan Terms; Est. -1.0%
China’s Nov. Exports Rise 0.1% Y/y in Dollar; Est. -5.0%
PBOC Faces Rising Money Policy Challenge From Outflows: Moody’s
JPY:
Japan Revised 3Q GDP Rose Annualized 1.3% Q/q; Est. +2.3%
Japan’s October FX Reserves Suffer Biggest Outflow in 4 Years
Japan’s LDP Plans to Introduce New Personal Investment Account
Japanese Sold Net 887.6 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
Yen to Avoid Rout Even as Fed Moves Boost Dollar: Ex-MOF Utsumi
EUR:
Italy Credit Rating Outlook to Negative from Stable by Moody’s
AUD:
Australia Oct. Trade Deficit A$1.54b; Est. A$610m Deficit
NZD:
Wheeler Says RBNZ Likely Done Cutting Rates as Economy Grows
New Zealand Raises Growth, Surplus Forecasts in Budget Update
New Zealand Debt Office Raises 2016/17 Bond Issuance Program
NZ’s Coleman Pulls Out of Leaders Race, Clearing Way for English
Fonterra Says N.Z. Milk Production Fell 6% in 3 Months to Nov
SGD:
Moody’s Affirms Singapore’s Aaa Rating; Keeps Stable Outlook
GBP:
U.K. Nov. RICS House Price Index at 30 vs Est. 26
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Oct A 1.93T | C 1.57T | P 1.48T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 (F) A 0.30% | C 0.60% | P 0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q3 (F) A -0.20% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Nov A 30% | C 26% | P 23%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Oct A -1.54B | C -0.72B | P -1.23B | R -1.27B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Nov A 44.6B | C 46.7B | P 49.1B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Nov A 298B | C 307B | P 325B
12:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
13:15Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Nov C 191K | P 192.9k
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Oct P -7.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Oct P 0.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Rate Q3 P 80.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 3) C 272K | P 268K
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -50B
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A quiet move through the Asian session with the market opening around the 1.0720 level and trading around that level through to the London session, the move into the London session initially saw little change with the tests of the 1.0710 level finding sufficient interest to buoy the market and although the highs were increased it was only the move into the NYK session that we saw the market pushing through the 1.0730 levels with the market testing to the 1.0750 areas and weak stops to take the market to the 1.0765 areas struggling around the level for several hours before drifting too the close.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2680 levels the market slowly drifted lower through the session with little real movement until the market moved into the London session, uncertainty continues through the day with talk of a vote on Brexit by MP’s seeing many likely to revolt against the relevant parties however, given that some enterprising organiser made the vote open meant those that were likely to vote against the government would have been named, this then saw the vote won comfortably, the move into the London session saw the market dipping to the 1.2600 levels with weaker than expected IP numbers and MP numbers and holding around the level through into the NYK session dipping to the 1.2580 level before recovering through to the close to push back above the 1.2600 levels.
- JPY: Asia were quiet buyers through the session pushing from the opening 114.00 levels to test the 114.40 levels into the Grey hours however, it was a quiet session which only really started to move once the market moved into the NYK session with several attempts below 114.00 coming to nothing until the market moved into that session, the failure to the upside saw the USDJPY being sold as the market moved towards the London closed with the market dipping through to the 113.50 levels before returning to test the 114.00 and slowly drifting into the close.
- AUD: Strewth mate a shocker as a native would say, the market opened around the 0.7460 levels and pushed into the Tokyo session above the 0.7470 area and the release of the GDP figures, and with the market expecting slight weakness after last month’s reading the -0.50% saw the Oz drop quickly through to the 0.7420 levels to hold quietly in a 0.7420-40 range through into the London session, London were quiet buyers having been unable to push through the 0.7400 levels on the opening and the move into the NYK session saw the market holding around the 0.7450 levels, USD selling towards the end of the London session saw the Oz move back to its highs with little liquidity to slow it and the market ranging quietly around the 0.7480 level to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Nov A -1.70% | P -1.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 A -0.50% | C 0.20% | P 0.50% | R 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Oct A 0.30% | C 0.90% | P -1.80% | R -1.60%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Nov A 648B | P 630B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Oct A -1.30% | C 0.20% | P -0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Oct A -1.10% | C 0.50% | P 0.30% | R 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Oct A -0.90% | C 0.20% | P 0.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Oct A -0.40% | C 0.80% | P 0.20% | R 0.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Nov A 0.40% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -2.4M | C -1.4M | P -0.9M
Good Luck,
Andy
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