Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 117.039 | EURUSD 1.05349 | AUDUSD 0.74058 | NZDUSD 0.72232 | USDCAD 1.32833 | USDCHF 1.0204 | GBPUSD 1.25651 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.05402 | 1.04682
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 117.863 | 117.004
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25616 | 1.25139
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.02561 | 1.02016
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74303 | 0.73839
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33233 | 1.32653
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71187 | 0.70773
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07556 | 1.07291
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.84014 | 0.83584
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.545 | 123.092
For Today
- EUR: The aftermath was Early sellers moving into the market with the move through to the Tokyo session drifting to the 1.0520 levels from the close around 1.0540 and the market quickly dipping on the Tokyo opening to push through the 1.0480 areas in attempt to open the downside to deeper movement, in the end there was insufficient impetus to clear the bids in the area and although the market tested towards the 1.0470 areas the market slowly started to recover pushing back to the 1.0520 areas and holding quietly through to the grey hours, downside bids seem to be a little deeper through the 1.0480 areas and likely to see sentimental bids around the 1.0460 areas, a move through the 1.0440 levels could see stops appearing however, its likely that the stronger stops could appear through the 1.0400 areas with the market possibly still seeing buying appearing in the sentimental areas. Topside offers likely into the 1.0540-60 areas with weak stops on a move through however, congestion more likely through to the 1.0600 areas and continuing through to the stronger 1.0650 areas.
- GBP: A dip from the 1.2560 areas to the 1.2520 level into the Tokyo session saw the market holding the area and eventually move higher as the Euro moved off its initial lows before holding through to the 1.2540 areas into the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 1.2600 areas with offers limited at best and a little congestion before opening up to the stronger offers around the 1.2680-1.2720 areas, stronger offers are likely to appear through the level on any test to the 1.2750 area with stops likely on a push through the 1.2760-70 area and the 1.2800 and the gateway to the pre Oct levels. Downside bids into the 1.2520-00 areas with weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any move through with further bids moving into the market around the 1.2400 area likely to be a little more formidable.
- JPY: Opening around the 117.00 areas the market rose a little through to the 117.20 before Tokyo came in buying quickly running the market too the 117.80 areas, failing to break through the level the market drifted back to the 117.20 and pushing back into the grey hours in quiet trading around the 117.50 level. Topside offers through the 117.80 areas with a break through the 118.00 levels likely to see exporter offers appearing in earnest and the market running into the congestive offers through the 2015 ranges. Downside bids light through the 117.00 areas with weak stops possibly limited however, the quick move higher limits the bids and the market is able to move through to the 116.00 areas with little to hold it with the 115.50 areas is likely to be the stronger level for the downside for the moment and the market really needs a period of consolidation,
- AUD: The Oz saw limited movement weakened by the USD move the market found some strength in the weakness in JPY to counter yesterday’s drop however, the market struggled to move off the 0.7400 areas with the market dipping below the 0.7390 areas into the Tokyo session before rising off those lows to run along the 0.7420 areas, the market didn’t react to the Oz employment levels with a rise in employment numbers and a rise in the unemployment rate, so the knee jerk reactions for the time being seem to have disappeared as the market takes time to actually read the data. Topside offers light through the 0.7440-60 levels with some light stops possibly through the level and the market then running into the strong offers into the 0.7500-20 areas that continue to hold. A push through the level may see some stops appearing however, there is further congestion around the 0.7550 areas before limited movement to 76 cents. Downside bids through the current levels and likely to extend through to the 0.7450 areas and then lighter bids on a run through the 74 cent levels with the 73 cent level providing the key reversal area.
Overnight News
JPY:
Japanese Bought Net 267.4 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
Japanese Company Inflation Expectations Revised Up Slightly
Nikkei Japan Dec. Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.9 vs 51.3 in Nov.
CNY:
China FX Reserves Drop Doesn’t Point to Outflows: Info. Daily
China to Announce Plans for 7 New Free-Trade Zones Soon: Daily
CNY: China Nov. Outbound Investment Rises 76.5% Y/y in Dollar Terms
AUD:
Australian Employment Rose 39,100 in Nov.; Est. 17,500 Gain
EUR/GBP:
Carney Said to Meet at ECB as Central Bankers Seek Brexit Advice
NZD:
New Zealand Manufacturing Grows at Slowest Pace in 13 Months
New Zealand Non-Residential Construction Slowed in Third Quarter
HKD:
HKMA’s Chan Sees Hong Kong Interest Rate to Increase Gradually
SGD:
Singapore October Retail Sales +2.2% Y/y; Est. +0.3%
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Nov A 54.4 | P 55.2 | R 55.1
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Dec A 3.40% | P 3.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Nov A 39.1K | C 17.6K | P 9.8K | R 15.2K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Nov A 5.70% | C 5.60% | P 5.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Dec (P) A 51.9 | C 51.5 | P 51.3
06:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SECO Economic Forecasts
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Dec (P) C 51.9 | P 51.7
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Dec (P) C 51.8 | P 51.6
08:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Dec (P) C 54.6 | P 54.3
08:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Dec (P) C 55 | P 55.1
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate C -0.75% | P -0.75%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec (P) C 53.9 | P 53.7
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Dec (P) C 53.9 | P 53.8
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Nov C 0.20% | P 1.90%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision C 0.25% | P 0.25%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Dec C 435B | P 435B
12:00    GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
12:00    GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Oct C 0.70% | P 0.30%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Nov C 0.20% | P 0.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Nov C 1.70% | P 1.60%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Nov C 0.20% | P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Nov C 2.10% | P 2.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance Q3 C -111B | P -120B
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Index Dec C 1.5 | P 1.5
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Dec C 8.3 | P 7.6
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 10) P 258K
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales M/M Nov P 2.40%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Dec C 63 | P 63
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -42B
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A quiet session through the NYK with the market rising slowly from the 1.0630 areas unable to dip below the 1.0620 areas and moving into the London session pushing gradually through the 1.0660 levels, London were quick sellers to test the bids into the 1.0610 areas, the market then slowly moved through to the FOMC release testing towards the 1.0670 areas and eventually holding around the 1.0640 on the release, with the Euro quickly catching the knee jerk reaction to the 0.25% rise the market expected and falling to the 1.0560 before finding some support however, it was short lived and the market again slipped lower over the next hour to test the 1.0500 levels before bouncing to 1.0540 and the close.
- GBP: The Cable drifted through the Asian session testing to the 1.2640 levels into the early part of Tokyo, before slowly reversing to the 1.2660 opening levels as the market moved into the grey hours, the market lifted a little into the UK numbers with mixed numbers with employment numbers slipping a little but only minor fluctuations, the market drifted lower through towards the NYK before recovering from the 1.2640 levels again and pushing through the NYK opening to the 1.2700 levels and ranging around the area in the run to the FOMC, the release saw the market rise to test above the 1.2720 and make new highs for the day before quickly reversing with the commentary fairly hawkish saw the market testing quickly through the 1.2630 levels and following through after a brief pause to the 1.2540 ranging to the 1.2570 areas to the close.
- JPY: The market ranged quietly through the day, moving from the opening 115.20 areas to test above the 115.30 and drifting to the 115.00 through the Asian session, the move into the London session was little different with grey hours selling forcing the market to the 114.90 and ranging to the 115.20 levels, and only once the market moved into the NYK session did we see the day’s range set, with the market drifting to the 114.80 levels and then starting to rise through the 115.00 levels as the hour approached moving off the 115.20 areas the release saw the market gap higher and push quickly to the 116.40 areas pausing as with the other market before starting a further rise to push through to the 117.40 area before running out of steam and holding 117.00 to the close, hawkish commentary followed the announcement, with expectations now for 3 rises during 2017.
- AUD: The Oz moved as with the other pairs quietly through the Asian session trading from the 75 cent levels into the 0.7480 areas before rising back to the level in the move to the London session, the move towards the NYK session saw the market slowly push through the 0.7500 areas and top out around the 0.7520 levels with little impetus to do any further damage and a slow drift to the FOMC holding the 75 areas, the release saw the market react however, the fall was a mere 50 pips before holding briefly in the 0.7450 areas and then running like the other pairs to its lows however, the move was tempered by AUDJPY buying and the market failed to move firmly through the 74 cent level running to a quiet close just above the level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Dec A -3.90% | P -1.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4 A 10 | C 10 | P 6
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook Q4 A 8 | C 9 | P 6
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q4 A 18 | C 19 | P 18
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q4 A 18 | C 19 | P 16
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q4 A 5.50% | C 6.10% | P 6.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Oct (F) A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Nov A 0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Nov A -0.60% | P -0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Nov A 2.4K | C 6.2K | P 9.8K | R 13.3K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Nov A 2.30% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Oct A 4.80% | C 4.80% | P 4.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Oct A 2.50% | C 2.30% | P 2.30% | R 2.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Oct A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.80% | R -0.90%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ZEW (Expectations) Dec A 12.9 | P 8.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Nov A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P 0.80% | R 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Nov A 0.20% | C 0.50% | P 0.80% | R 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Nov A 0.40% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Nov A 1.30% | C 0.90% | P 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Nov A 1.60% | C 1.30% | P 1.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Nov A -0.40% | C -0.40% | P 0.00% | R 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Nov A 75.00% | C 75.00% | P 75.30% | R 75.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Oct A -0.20% | C -0.10% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -2.6M | C -1.4M | P -2.4M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision A 0.75% | C 0.75% | P 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed Summary of Economic Projections
Good Luck,
Andy
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