Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 117.542 | EURUSD 1.04372 | AUDUSD 0.72167 | NZDUSD 0.69007 | USDCAD 1.34824 | USDCHF 1.02576 | GBPUSD 1.2284 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04506 | 1.04340
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 117.670 | 117.382
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22986 | 1.22701
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.02586 | 1.02487
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72268 | 0.71975
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34935 | 1.34803
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69095 | 0.6898
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07090 | 1.07047
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85085 | 0.84926
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.779 | 122.572
For Today
- EUR: As we move into the festive holidays the market was very quiet with the Tokyo session closed and limited action from the other areas, moving from the 1.0435 levels the market gradually ground to the 1.0450 areas before slowing and holding too the grey hours. Limited expectation for the day with offers into the 1.0480-1.0500 levels and possibly not likely to be tested however, a push though the 1.0520 areas could see some limited stops appearing before stronger offers into the 1.0550 areas. Downside bids light through the 1.0400 areas however, likely to be close to the downside expected on the day with stronger bids possibly through that level and limited downside potential.
- GBP: A very quiet session with the market moving around the 1.2280 areas for the most part having seen limited testing to the 1.2270 levels before recovering and holding the opening levels into the London session, Topside offers light through the 1.2300 levels and given the limited market a short squeeze back to the 1.2350 levels is a possibility on any movement in the GDP figure however, the same could be said for the downside however, bids are likely to be a little stronger on any move through the 1.2250 levels.
- JPY: No Tokyo session today saw the market dropping quickly on a nothing and the 10 pips was likely to be exaggerated as well, but joking aside the move from the opening around the 117.60 saw light selling and no real bids or levels close enough to alter the move the market held the 117.45/50 levels before early Europeans and Middle eastern traders moved in. to test the 117.40 level for the run to the grey hours. Possibly potential to test the 117.20 levels and the downside bids however, through the level is unlikely with bids possibly sufficient to hold the market and similar for the topside with stronger offers into the 118.00-30 areas.
- AUD: The Oz saw steady selling from the highs around the 0.7225 areas with the market trading quietly in a tight channel to the 0.7200 areas before holding through into the grey hours. Early moves saw the highs above the 0.7225 levels in weak buying. Bids into the current lows will possibly see the market tested again through the day however, one suspects bids likely to continue through the level and limited potential for a strong move, Topside is little different and possible light offers into the 0.7250 areas slowing a move to the topside.
Overnight News
EUR:
Italian Govt. approves decree to rescue Monte dei Paschi
OIL:
Oil dipped back on profit taking
CNY:
Limited room for China to tighten policy as debt fear grows
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Jan C 9.8 | P 9.8
08:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Dec C 103.1 | P 102.2
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 (F) C 0.50% | P 0.50%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (GBP) Q3 C -28.3B | P -28.7B
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Oct C 0.90% | P 0.80%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Total Business Investment Q/Q Q3 (F) C 0.90% | P 0.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Oct C 0.10% | P 0.30%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Nov C 575K | P 563K
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Dec (F) C 98.2 | P 98
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A quiet day overall with the market rising from the 1.0425 areas to the 1.0445 levels through Asia before holding through to the London session, rising through the 1.0450 levels the market saw limited reaction to the ECB bulletin rising to the 1.0470 levels before dropping back before the NYK session, the move into the next part of the day saw the market dipping through to the 1.0430 levels with US GDP on track, the release of the worse than expected leading indicators saw the Euro rallying again and the spike through the highs triggered weak stops and the market pushing too the 1.0500 levels before halting and slipping back again to the 1.0450 level again and gradually slipping back to the opening levels for the close.
- GBP: Cable saw limited selling through the day with the market more focused on end of year selling than anything major, even the US figures had little impact on the day, rising in the Asian session from the opening around the 1.2350 level the market tested too the 1.2380 area on limited GBPJPY buying before dropping back again slowly through the course of the session, having seen the highs the move into the London session saw the market drop back through the 1.2350, the move into the NYK session saw the selling continue and a strong push through from the 1.2350 levels saw the figure level traded below for a while and a gradual drift to the close.
- JPY: A quiet session for the USDJPY with the market finishing for the festive period, edging higher through the Asian session from the opening around the 117.50 levels to test too the 117.75 levels for the move into the London session, early London returned it too its opening levels before the US figure releases saw the highs made above the 117.85 level and quickly reversing back to make the lows with the help of a few weak stops through the 117.50 areas to test into the 117.20’s before returning to trade quietly to the close little changed on the day.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7240 levels the market saw limited trading with initial AUDNZD selling from the opening only to meet limited buying on a move through into the Tokyo session for the market to recover and push through towards the 0.7260 areas before slowly drifting through the session as the market slowly ground to a slow close, the move into the London session, the market saw steady selling, with the push eventually dipping through the 72 cent levels and nothing, the failure of the level saw the market start to rise again but the day was over once Asia was closed and the limited reaction was contained in a 30 pip range through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 A 1.10% | C 0.80% | P 0.90% | R 0.70%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance Q3 A -4.89B | C -4.89B | P -0.95B | R -0.93B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Dec A -7 | C -8 | P -8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Economic Bulletin
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 17) A 275K | C 255K | P 254K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q3 (T) A 3.50% | C 3.30% | P 3.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders M/M Nov A -4.60% | C -4.90% | P 4.80% | R 4.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transport M/M Nov A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P 1.00% | R 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q3 (T) A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.40%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Oct A 1.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.60% | R 0.80%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Oct A 1.40% | C 0.70% | P 0.00% | R 0.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Nov A -0.40% | C -0.10% | P 0.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Nov A 1.20% | C 1.40% | P 1.50%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core M/M Nov A -0.50% | C -0.20% | P 0.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC CPI Core Y/Y Nov A 1.50% | C 1.80% | P 1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Oct A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Nov A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Nov A 0.00% | C 0.30% | P 0.60% | R 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Nov A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.30% | R 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Nov A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Nov A 1.40% | C 1.50% | P 1.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Nov A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Nov A 1.60% | C 1.70% | P 1.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -209 | C -206 | P -147B
Happy New Year and I’ll be back for the start of it.
Good Luck,
Andy
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