Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 117.246 | EURUSD 1.04899 | AUDUSD 0.72836 | NZDUSD 0.69472 | USDCAD 1.33002 | USDCHF 1.02104 | GBPUSD 1.23218 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.05639 | 1.0481
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 117.426 | 116.077
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23500 | 1.23167
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.02189 | 1.01621
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73209 | 0.72740
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33109 | 1.32627
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70106 | 0.69554
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07334 | 1.07114
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85551 | 0.85124
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.125 | 122.398
For Today
- EUR: The move through to the Tokyo session was quiet before moving quickly higher on the opening in Tokyo with USD selling across the board and the Euro pushing to the 1.0540 levels before dropping back a little once the initial buying was finished, the market then traded quietly through to the market started to open in the Middle East and Eastern Europe with the Euro again pushing through towards the 1.0560 levels as the market heads into the grey hours. Topside offers through the 1.0600 levels with several weeks of congestion through the levels to the 1.0660 areas before weak stops are likely to appear, a push through the 1.0680-1.0700 areas will see weak stops appearing and the topside open for fresh tests to the 1.0800 levels over the coming days, with concerns now rising in many European countries of inflation and possible higher interest rates to come doing the rounds one would have thought the simpler answer would be USD buying into the end of the year and now a return of funds selling USD’s into the new year. Downside bids light into the 1.0500 levels with weak stops likely through the 1.0480 areas and then better bids on a move to the 1.0450 areas and the bids continuing.
- GBP: USD selling helped the Cable to rise to the 1.2350 levels on the market opening in Tokyo once the initial buying was finished the market slipped back to the opening levels only to rally into the grey hours to again test the highs, Topside offers around the 1.2350 level seem to be more formidable than expected and the market has now tested the level 3 times in the past 12hrs or so, a move through the level will likely see weak stops appearing quickly and the market moving quickly to the 1.2400 areas and the congestion between the 1.2400-1.2500 areas from the last couple of months, downside bids light through the 1.2300 levels with a little better support on a move into the 1.2250 areas and stronger bids on a move through the level.
- JPY: 24hrs and the lustre has gone, with the USDJPY opening around the 117.20 levels Sydney buyers slowly moved the market to the 117.40 areas before the Tokyo session began however, once it began the USD selling saw the market dropping quickly through to the 116.80 levels and then continuing albeit at a slower pace touching the 116.40 levels and trading around the area for several hours before a second round of selling saw the market pushing through the 116.20 levels as the market moved to the grey hours. Topside offers light through the 117.00 areas and thickening as the market approaches the 117.60-118.00 levels with the stronger offers through the 118.00 levels containing the topside for the moment, a push through the 118.20 level is possibly going to see large stops appearing and the market free to move into the next range. Downside bids light into the 116.00 areas and more sentimental than anything else the move through the level will likely see stops appearing and the market then finding some stronger support on a test towards the 115.50 areas, and 115.00.
- AUD: Opening a little lower the market tested below the 0.7280 areas before the Tokyo session opened, as with the rest of the market the Oz moved quickly higher on the USD selling and pushed through the 73 cent levels however, it was unable to push through the offers and stalled, the market slipped back a little and held the opening levels until the second run higher pushing to the 0.7320 levels into the grey hours. Topside offers into the 0.7340-60 areas sees weak stops appearing above the level and limited offers around the 74 cent level opening the market to another test through to the 75 cent levels. Downside bids into the 0.7250 areas and likely to continue with different levels of interest but bids there are into the strong 0.7150 areas.
Overnight News
SGD:
Singapore private sector firms see more business in Dec and increased Part time workers
GBP:
UK Economy keeps momentum but inflation pressures increase, BCC survey
USD:
Fed officials see gradual rate hikes as upside risks debated
US obtained evidence after the election that Russia leaked emails: officials
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Dec A 23.10% | C 22.30% | P 21.50%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Services Dec A 53.4 | C 53.3 | P 53.1
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Dec C -0.10% | P -0.20%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Dec C 0.00% | P -0.30%
09:10Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Dec P 48.6
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Dec C 54.7 | P 55.2
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Nov C 0.20% | P 0.80%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Nov C -0.10% | P -0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Dec P -13.00%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Dec C 175K | P 216K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 31) C 260K | P 265K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Nov C 0.20% | P 0.70%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Nov C -1.60% | P 3.30%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Dec C 56.7 | P 57.2
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -237B
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 0.6M
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Limited range through the Asian session pushing to the 1.0420 levels from the opening just above 1.0400 area before drifting back to range around the 1.0400 level into the grey hours, the move through the grey hours saw the market starting a steady rise moving into the London opening again at the 1.0420 level and quickly pushing to the 1.0440 area, the market held the level through to the NYK session before again starting to rise pushing this time through to the 1.0480 area and peaking to the 1.0500 level on the release of the FOMC minutes, with no major surprises in the minutes the movement was somewhat mooted and really the only thing of note was about half the Fed officials included fiscal policy in their forecast and given the minutes saw nothing changed from previous looked more than you’d expect. For the most the market then ran out holding just above the 1.0480 levels.
- GBP: Asia saw limited selling early in the session with the market dipping through to the 1.2220 areas into the Tokyo fix, the rest of the Asian session was not particularly exciting and the Cable started a slow rise through into the grey hours testing the 1.2250 levels, pre London saw the market move quickly to the 1.2270 areas and then range around the level through to the NYK session with mixed numbers helping the market to test to the 1.2290 levels and holding the downside 1.2250 level, the move deeper into the NYK session saw the market testing the 1.2300 levels, the break when it appeared was a quick move through to the 1.2330 levels with the market peaking around the 1.2350 area on the FOMC before holding in the 1.2325 areas to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 117.80 levels the market slipped a little before the Tokyo session testing the 117.60 areas and then rallying through the 118.00 level, the market then struggled to penetrate the 118.20 areas and the market returned to range around the figure level through into the London session, London started the day selling and the market never reached the 118.20 level dipping initially to the 117.70 areas and then a steady slide through into the NYK session to test towards the 117.00 levels, FOMC had limited impact and the USDJPY did try to rally pushing towards the 117.80 levels after the release before sliding back again to hold the 117.20 levels into the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7220 levels the market rose steadily through the session in Asia pushing through to the 0.7240 levels on the move into the London opening quickly rising to the 0.7280 areas and then holding around the 0.7260-80 areas through to the close pushing just above the highs in the final hour.
Yesterday’s premiership results
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Dec A 52.3 | C 52.6 | P 53.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Dec (F) A 52.9 | C 52.6 | P 52.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Dec (F) A 54.3 | C 53.8 | P 53.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Dec (F) A 53.7 | C 53.1 | P 53.1
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Dec A 54.2 | C 52.6 | P 52.8
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Nov A 67.5K | C 68.7K | P 67.5K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M Nov A 0.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Dec A 1.10% | C 1.00% | P 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Dec (A) A 0.90% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Minutes
Good Luck,
Andy
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