Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 114.634 | EURUSD 1.06294 | AUDUSD 0.75051 | NZDUSD 0.71686 | USDCAD 1.3270 | USDCHF 1.00746 | GBPUSD 1.2261 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06451 | 1.06228
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.898 | 114.441
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22902 | 1.22529
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00817 | 1.00632
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75262 | 0.74935
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32714 | 1.32526
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71473 | 0.71186
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07142 | 1.07077
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86717 | 0.86596
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.070 | 121.75
For Today
- EUR: A quiet session for the Euro with the market moving off the early lows around the 1.0625 areas and test into the 1.0645 level late in the session and then drifting just a touch on the move into the grey hours. Topside offers light on a move through towards the 1.0680 areas and then stiffening if the market can push towards the 1.0700 levels, possibly weak stops on a push through the 1.0720 areas with strong offers likely to move in around the 1.0750 areas, downside bids into the 1.0620 areas and likely to see some congestion on a push through, possibly light stops through 1.0580 however, these are likely to be quickly absorbed with some reasonable bids into the 1.0550 area. ECB not expected to change but something to watch for the tone.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2260 levels the market moved through into the Tokyo session holding around the level with minor dips into the 1.2250’s, with limited reactions across the market the GBP started to see some cross buying particularly in the GBPJPY helping the Cable to push gradually through to test the 1.2290 areas before drifting back to trade around the 1.2280 levels through to the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 1.2300 areas and possibly a little stronger into the 1.2350 before the 1.2400 becomes vulnerable to a test and stronger offers, a move through that level is likely to see some stops appearing and the topside opening a little. Downside bids light into the 1.2200 areas with stronger bids then emerging on a push through to the 1.2150 areas and possibly extending to the 1.2100 level.
- JPY: Tentative trading around the 114.60 levels and the opening throughout the session, for the most part the market is sitting and waiting for the next signal either from Trump once we get through Friday or the MoF on the subject of currency levels given the past few days discussions however, with the MoF a little perturbed by Pres. Elect Trumps views on the level of the USD it seems it would be remit of me to not mention verbal intervention over the past couple of decades, Offers into the 114.80 levels and through to the 115.00 with possible weak stops on a move through then finding some congestive levels around the 115.50 areas however, the sentimental levels are likely to be a little weak and the market has the potential to push up to the 116.50 areas with little opposition, downside bids light through the 113.00 areas with stronger bids into 112.50 and through to the 112.00 areas, a push through the 111.80 areas will likely see weak stops appear and then the market opens for a stronger move through to the 111.00-20 areas.
- AUD: The market opened around the 0.7510 areas and traded quietly through into the Tokyo session, little reaction to Consumer inflation numbers being more of a lagging indication, however, employment numbers saw higher headline numbers but unemployment ticking up to the 5.80% and the Oz dropped back to test below the 0.7500 areas touching around the 0.7495 before recovering as the market started to get a grip of the headline number with a higher participation number solving the difference and the underlying improvement intact, the market eventually picked up to trade back through the opening and test the 0.7525 areas before settling into the 0.7520 areas for the move into the grey hours. Topside offers into the 0.7540-60 areas and likely to continue through the sentimental levels to the 0.7580-0.7600 area, a break here will continue to see offers appearing and congestive through to the 0.7650 areas and stronger offers again. Downside bids light through the 75 cent level but increasing as the market pushes to the 0.7450 areas and some reasonable congestion for a quiet day, a break through the 74 cent levels will see the market opening to the downside and a return to the range below 73 cent becoming vulnerable.
Overnight News
JPY:
BOJ Mulls Raising Growth Rate Outlook at Policy Meeting: Nikkei
Japanese Bought Net 332.1 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
USD:
Fed’s Yellen Says Fiscal Policy in Central Bank’s Focus
USD/CNY:
China’s Holdings of U.S. Treasuries Drop by Most Since 2011
CNY/USD:
China Says Dollar Trend Uncertain; Won’t Move in One Direction
CNY:
China’s Cross-Border Outflow Pressures Eased in 2016: SAFE
SAFE to ‘Prudently’ Assess Plan on Capital Flows Before Acting
China Banks Sold Net 298.3b Yuan of Forex for Clients in Dec.
China to Cooperate With New U.S. Govt. on Trade, Economy: Mofcom
AUD:
Australian Employment Rose 13,500 in Dec.; Est 10,000 Gain
NZD:
New Zealand Manufacturing Growth Remains Slowest Since Late 2015
NZD: New Zealand Home-Building Approvals Post Biggest Drop Since 2013
GBP:
U.K. Dec. RICS House Price Index at 24 vs Est. 30
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Dec A 54.5 | P 54.4 | R 54.5
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Nov A -9.20% | P 2.60% | R 2.00%
0AUDÂ Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Jan A 4.30% | P 3.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Dec A 24% | C 30% | P 30% | R 29%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Dec A 13.5K | C 10K | P 39.1K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Dec A 5.80% | C 5.70% | P 5.70%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Dec C 0.20% | P 0.10%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Dec C 0.10% | P -0.60%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Nov C 29.3B | P 28.4B
12:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Nov C 10.23B | P 15.75B
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Nov C 1.00% | P -0.80%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 14) C 251K | P 247K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Dec C 1.19M | P 1.09M
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Dec C 1.22M | P 1.20M
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Jan C 16 | P 21.5
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -151B
16:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 4.1M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Through the day the USD began to capture its composure, the Euro opened around the 1.0710 levels and slowly drifted through the session with the Tokyo session saw the market slipping to the 1.0690 level after a few hours, the lead into the grey hours saw the market pushing lower again to the 1.0680 line, the move into the London session saw the market lifting a little with German numbers doing little, but the probe above the 1.0700 levels was short lived and the gradual selling continued through to the release of US numbers, with CPI numbers in line with expectations the market moved back towards the 1.0700 levels before drifting again into the Fed’s beige book, Yellen’s commentary was a little more hawkish than before with the FOMC likely to raise rates a few times each year, this saw the USD rising quickly and the Euro pressing quickly to the 1.0630 areas into the close.
- GBP: Cable saw the market drifting from the opening with accesses of yesterday run its course the GBP found some limited profit taking and the market again starting to focus on the clean Brexit, Cable was dominated early on with the market settling back from its large rise and then having held the 1.2340 areas into the grey hours, London slipped lower through to the NYK session with the market running along the 1.2280 line, US numbers mixed and although the Cable recovered a little the market ebbed back to the 1.2260 levels into the close as the Yellen comments supported the USD.
- JPY: A gradual rise from the 112.60 opening levels through the day with the Asian session moving up to the 113.40 levels with little noise, the move through London saw the market pushing up to the 113.50 levels with very little movement overall and only once the Yellen did the market move with a quick push up through the 114.00 level and then a steady rise through to the close just short of the 114.80 areas.
- AUD: Dipping a little from the opening the market traded down from the 0.7565 levels testing into the Tokyo session to the 0.7540 and basing off that level through into the London session, the market extended its highs a little through into the NYK session before starting a steady decline through to the Yellen comments with the market testing to the 0.7535 levels and then dropping quickly to the 0.7510-05 areas through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Jan A 0.10% | P -3.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Dec (F) A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Dec (F) A 1.70% | C 1.70% | P 1.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Dec A -10.1K | C 5.0K | P 2.4K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Dec A 2.30% | C 2.30% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Nov A 2.80% | C 2.60% | P 2.50% | R 2.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Nov A 4.80% | C 4.80% | P 4.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Dec (F) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Dec (F) A 1.10% | C 1.10% | P 1.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Dec (F) A 0.90% | C 0.90% | P 0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Dec A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Dec A 2.10% | C 2.10% | P 1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Dec A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Dec A 2.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Dec A 0.80% | C 0.60% | P -0.40% | R -0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Dec A 75.50% | C 75.40% | P 75.00% | R 74.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Jan A 67 | C 69 | P 70 | R 69
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | R 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed’s Beige Book
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Nov A 30.8B | C 21.3B | P 9.4B
Good Luck,
Andy
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