Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 114.531 | EURUSD 1.06822 | AUDUSD 0.75339 | NZDUSD 0.72349 | USDCAD 1.30925 | USDCHF 1.00014 | GBPUSD 1.2594 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06930 | 1.06684
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 115.065 | 114.41
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26056 | 1.25521
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00151 | 0.99969
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75421 | 0.75251
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31204 | 1.30896
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72523 | 0.72366
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06868 | 1.06765
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85011 | 0.84783
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.795 | 122.271
For Today
- EUR: A quiet session overall with the market opening around the 1.0680 areas and ranging around the level through the Asian session testing towards the 1.0690 levels in midsession before slipping slowly lower through to the grey hours to dip through the 1.0670 level, Downside bids into the 1.0650 areas with congestive bids likely through to the 1.0600 areas and stronger bids with weak stops likely through the level and then congestive bids through the 1.0550 level. Topside offers light through the 1.0700 areas with congestive offers through to the 1.0750 areas and stronger offers building above the level particularly towards the 1.0800-10 level with stops likely on a push through that level.
- GBP: Moving from the opening around the 1.2590 areas the market tested repeatedly above the 1.2600 level but with very little appetite the move through deeper into the session saw the market slipping slowly lower to push into the grey hours holding around the 1.2560 areas. Topside offer limited through the 1.2600 levels with stronger offers once the market pushes above the 1.2650 areas building to the 1.2700 areas with congestive offers into the 1.2750 levels with stops likely to appear on a push through the 1.2765 areas with limited offers from then on a push through the sentimental levels opening to the 1.2900 area. Downside bids into the current lows through the 1.2550 areas and weak stops likely to open the market for a move back to the 1.2500 level and stronger near term bids, a break through this level is likely to see sentimental bids only around the 50’s and 00 areas until the market pushes towards the 1.2350 level and possibly stronger bids.
- JPY: From the opening the market tested into the Tokyo session pressing to the 114.40 levels before Tokyo started a slow buy back through to the opening 114.60 levels and Tokyo fixing demand seeing the market moving quickly to the 114.90 areas before ranging through the session peeking through the 115.00 levels and holding through to the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 115.00-10 areas with limited stops on a move through and then stronger offers into the 115.50 area with some offers likely to continue in patches through to the 116.00 areas. Downside bids light through the 114.00 levels with stops likely on a break through the 113.80 areas and opening up a fresh test towards the 113.20-00 areas.
- AUD: A flat day for the Oz with the market basing off the 0.7525 areas and pushing lightly through the 0.7540 level, downside bids through to the 0.7520 areas with possible stops appearing on a push through the 75 cent areas and only limited congestion on any move through to the 0.7450 areas with possible stronger stops appearing on a test lower through to the 0.7390 areas. Topside offers into the 76 cent and likely to be fairly strong with a push through the 0.7620 areas seeing weak stops and limited technical stops appearing for a quick push higher through the 0.7650 levels and a vulnerable 77 cent area.
Overnight News
JPY:
BOJ Boosts Amount of Bond Purchases in Five-to-10 Year Zone
Japan Dec. Core Consumer Prices Fall 0.2% Y/y; Est. -0.3%
JPY/USD:
Aso: Japanese Companies in U.S. Employ About 800,000 People
GBP:
U.K. Consumer Confidence Rises to 4-Month High: Cebr/YouGov
AUD:
Turnbull: Strong U.S. Presence in Asia-Pacific Key to Security
Australia 4Q Export Prices Rise 12.4% Q/Q; Est. 12.1%
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Dec A -0.20% | C -0.30% | P -0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jan A -0.30% | C -0.40% | P -0.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Q/Q Q4 A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Q4 A 0.70% | P 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index Q/Q Q4 A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P -1.00%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Dec C 1.30% | P 0.70%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index Y/Y Dec C 2.70% | P 0.30%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Dec C 4.90% | P 4.80%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q4 (A) C 2.20% | P 3.50%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q4 (A) C 2.10% | P 1.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Dec (P) C 2.60% | P -4.50%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Dec (P) C 0.50% | P 0.60%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Jan (F) C 98.1 | P 98.1
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: As the market runs to the Lunar New Year the Euro found some limited support through the Asian session, moving from the 1.0750 level to test above the 1.0765 area and hold through to the grey hours, with very little data for the Eurozone today the move into the grey hours saw limited selling however, that selling continued through the bulk of the day with the market drifting to the 1.0730 levels into the London opening and then struggling through to the NYK session testing the 1.0710 areas before the opening in NYK saw a trade balance in line broadly with expectations and inventories continuing to build, however, even with some poor numbers the USD was bought on the opening against the Euro and the Euro dipped quickly through the 1.0710 areas to hold briefly around the 1.0700 before continuing its steady decline, the market traded to its lows into the close in London bouncing off the 1.0660 area and testing back to the 1.0700 level and drifting to the close in the middle of the late range.
- GBP: Cable opened around the 1.2630 areas and tested a little higher through the Asian session pushing to the 1.2660 areas before drifting back into the grey hours, the opening in London saw the market testing through to the 1.2670 areas to extend the highs but ran out of room once the GDP figures had been absorbed, with the dip in CBI retail sales report and the market dropped to the lows into the NYK opening. The rest of the session was very quiet with the market trading sideways and gradually pushing from the 1.2560 levels to test the 1.2600 areas again and holding quietly around that level to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY faced light selling from the opening around the 113.20 areas pushing at the supportive bids in an attempt at the 113.00 level the market held and once the fixing in Tokyo was over the market started a steady rise through the day, holding the 113.40 levels through to the grey hours and then quickly stepping to the 113.60 areas and into the London session stepping again to the 113.80, UK GDP numbers seemed to trigger a USDJPY rally with the market moving through the 114.00 level and triggering weak stops along the way, the move to the 114.20-40 areas ranging into the NYK session before another lift to set the high for the day above the 114.80 areas holding the areas for a couple hours before drifting a little lower to the close.
- AUD: The Oz drifted lower with concerns over the soft inflation data still weighing on the market, opening around the 0.7570 areas the market did test early in the session to the 0.7585 areas before drifting a little and holding the opening areas through to the grey hours. From then on the Oz was steadily sold through to the London close with the market slipping to the 0.7528 areas into the NYK session and extending to the 0.7520 areas into the London close to set the low, the market did attempt a recovery but it was half hearted and struggled through the 0.7550 areas and then settled back to finish the day just off the lows.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q4 A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q4 A 1.30% | C 1.20% | P 0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Dec A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Dec A 2.72B | C 2.81B | P 3.64B | R 3.50B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Feb A 10.2 | C 10 | P 9.9
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals Dec A 43228 | C 41000 | P 40659 | R 41003
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (A) A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q4 (A) A 2.20% | C 2.10% | P 2.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Nov A 1.00% | C 0.90% | P 1.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Retailing Reported Sales Jan A -8 | C 27 | P 35
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance Dec A -65.0B | C -64.5B | P -66.6B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Dec (P) A 1.00% | C 0.10% | P 1.00% | R 1.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 21) A 259K | C 245K | P 234K | R 237K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Dec A 536K | C 585K | P 592K | R 598K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Dec A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.00% | R 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -119B | C -121B | P -243B
Good Luck,
Andy
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