Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.395 | EURUSD 1.06814 | AUDUSD 0.76273 | NZDUSD 0.73144 | USDCAD 1.31858 | USDCHF 0.99766 | GBPUSD 1.25094 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06910 | 1.06674
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.550 | 112.045
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25121 | 1.24776
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99863 | 0.9968
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76395 | 0.76122
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31988 | 1.3171
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73180 | 0.72865
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06574 | 1.06519
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85513 | 0.85375
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.097 | 119.760
For Today
- EUR: A very quiet session so far with the Euro opening around the 1.0680 areas and moving into the grey hours with the market testing either way by 10 pips, Topside offers light through the 1.0700-10 areas with possible weak stops through the level and the market possibly seeing only slightly stronger into the 1.0750 areas, no data for the day is likely to see the market struggle on any push to the 1.0800 areas. Downside bids light through to the 1.0660 area and then starting to become stronger with a little weakness on a break through the 1.0640 level and then stronger bids into the 1.0600 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.0580 areas, possibly congestive bids are likely to slow any move today.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2510 levels the market drifted into the Tokyo session testing through the 1.2500 level and limited selling took the market too its lows around the 1.2480 level before pushing slowly through to the opening levels and then drifting between the 1.2500-10 levels to the grey hours. Topside offers into the 1.2550 areas and congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2600 a push through the level is likely to see stronger offers continuing through to the 1.2650 areas. Downside bids light through to some congestion in the 1.2450 area with the market having very little support until the 1.2350 areas and suspected decent bids.
- JPY: The USDJPY made an early attempt through the 112.50 levels from the opening in Tokyo however, the early gains were quickly lost as the market dipped back from the failed level tumbling quickly to the 112.20 areas and then slipping gently to test the 112.05 areas, the market then started a quiet rise back towards the opening levels as the market moved into the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 112.50 areas however, it’s been sufficient to hold a quiet session through to the grey hours, a push through the 112.50 areas is likely to see some limited stops appearing and the market stronger into the 113.00 areas. Downside bids through the 112.00 areas into the 111.60 areas in particular however, very little until 111.00 level and then better bids on a move through to the 110.50 level.
- AUD: Very little movement over the session in the Oz with the market drifting from the opening 0.7625 area and touching the 0.7615 levels into the Tokyo opening, the day was then made up with the market steadily regaining the opening and rising to the 0.7640 areas and holding around the 0.7630 level into the grey hours. Topside offers light through to the 0.7680 areas and those offers into the 77 cent level with offers likely to extend a short way through with weak stops not likely to be too close, and congestive offers into the 0.7750 areas, Downside bids light until the 76 cent level were the market is likely to see decent bids again with weak stops on a move through the 0.7580 areas and congestive bids probably appearing through the level however, 75 cent is likely to see bids all the way through for the moment.
Overnight News
JPY/USD:
Japan Creates Most U.S. Jobs Among Foreign Countries, Suga Says
Japan’s Govt. Seeks Business Pledges Ahead of Trump Meeting: FT
USD/JPY:
Trump, Abe Will Travel to Mar-a-Lago This Weekend: Spicer
Trump-Abe Summit to Take Place Friday, Japan Says
JPY:
BOJ Summary: Concern About BOJ Ability to Control Yield Growing
Japan Closes Out 2016 With Robust Current-Account Surplus
Japan Sells Most U.S. Sovereign Debt in 3 Yrs, Buys Danish: MOF
CNY:
PBOC’s Market Rate Hikes Target Property Bubbles: Sec. Journal
KRW/AUD:
S.Korea, Australia Extend, Expand Currency Swap Pact
EUR:
Weidmann Says German Inflation Concerns Are Topical: RND
OIL:
Iran Oil Minister Says OPEC Needs to Extend Output Cuts: Fars
NZD:
Joyce Says RBNZ’s Proposed Debt-To-Income Tool Needs More Work
New Zealand Government to Present 2017 Budget on May 25: Joyce
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Summary of Opinions
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Dec A 1.67T | C 1.71T | P 1.80T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current Jan A 49.8 | C 51.8 | P 51.4
13:15Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jan C 200.0K | P 207.0K
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 6.5M
20:00Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Rate Decision C 1.75% | P 1.75%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: The first half of the day saw the Euro falling back with a resurgence of the USD, opening around the 1.0750 areas the market eased into the Tokyo session slipping a little lower but continuing through to the 1.0710 areas before finding some kind of base for the lead into the grey hours, the market quickly dipped to the 1.0700 levels before slowly pushing through into the London session continuing the move with weak stops through the 1.0680 areas to test to the 1.0660 areas before holding, the rest of the day saw the market attempting a recovery, with Greece beginning to figure with Brexit and inflation likely to continue to appear as a back drop. The move into the NYK session saw the market testing through into the 1.0680’s however the recovery through to the London close was limited and 1.0700 was a struggle once the market got to the level it reversed to finish the day around the 1.0680 areas.
- GBP: Early trading in Cable was very limited with the market rising off the 1.2460 early lows to test above the 1.2480 level before drifting back to the lows into the grey hours, early sellers pushed it a little lower however, the move into the London session saw strong selling to push the market down through the 1.2400 level triggering weak stops and holding around the level basing off the 1.2350 areas through into the NYK session commentary from BoE’s Forbes saw the market push quickly back through the 1.2400 as hawkish comments and defining economics rather than Brexit uncertainty dominated his chat, the market saw weak stops triggered and the market pushed quickly through to the Tokyo highs and then rising slowly once the London session ended, the market continued to rise a pushed through the 1.2500 level and again weak stops helped the market to make the highs of the day touching through the 1.2540 area before drifting to the 1.2510 areas for the close.
- JPY: USDJPY was range bound through the Tokyo session, the market opened around the 111.75 areas and struggled through into the Tokyo session testing to the 111.60 levels to set the lows on the fix and then steadily pushing through the 111.90 areas and trading quietly until the opening in London and the market breaking through the 112.00 areas triggering weak stops to the 112.20 areas before slowly rising through London to the 112.50 areas and into the NYK session, the move in Cable saw the market dropping back again as the USD struggled and limited profit taking in GBPJPY saw JPY rising, the market bounced off the 111.85 areas and recovered much of the topside with the market closing around the 112.40 areas on half decent volumes.
- AUD: Nervous opening with the market drifting from the 0.7660 opening to test through into Tokyo testing the 0.7635 levels before the RBA decision, no change saw the sellers spiking to the lows again and then reversing as the communique showed that the RBA was comfortable with current rates and their willingness to move in either direction, the market rallied quickly through to the 0.7670 areas and then pushing slowly through the grey hours to couch the 0.7680 level, early London was less impressed with the communique and the selling saw weak stops triggered back through 0.7650 and then again on the break of the Tokyo lows to test to the 0.7610 levels, London was quiet for the Oz with the market basing off the 0.7610 areas with a minor dip towards the 0.7605 level but generally ranging through the session until the market moved into the NYK session and limited USD selling saw the Oz rise back up to the 0.7645 areas and ranging slowly lower from that area to finish around the 0.7625 areas into the close with limited day trades cutting there earlier buys.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Jan A -0.60% | C 0.90% | P 1.00%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Expectation Q1 A 1.90% | P 1.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Dec (P) A 105.2 | C 105.5 | P 102.8
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SECO Consumer Confidence Jan A -3 | C -11 | P -13
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Dec A -3.00% | C 0.30% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Jan A 644B | C 646B | P 645B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Dec A -44.3B | C -45.0B | P -45.2B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Dec A 0.9B | C 0.3B | P 0.5B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Dec A -6.60% | C -2.50% | P -0.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Jan A 57.2 | C 58.3 | P 60.8
Good Luck,
Andy
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