Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.229 | EURUSD 1.06409 | AUDUSD 0.76762 | NZDUSD 0.7202 | USDCAD 1.30854 | USDCHF 1.0025 | GBPUSD 1.24874 |
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LMAX Ranges 6am London time
Highs   Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06354 | 1.06121
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.167 | 113.513
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25021 | 1.24797
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76783 | 0.76586
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00517 | 1.00315
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31214 | 1.30818
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72092 | 0.7179
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85152 | 0.84947
EURCHF Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06720 | 1.06637
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.168 | 120.73
For today
- EUR: A steady decline from the opening with a better USD pushing the Euro down from the 1.0635 areas with the market moving into the Tokyo session testing the 1.0620 level with some limited selling on the opening and the market testing into the low teens before holding the level through towards the grey hours, the market did start a quiet rise to the 1.0625 areas as the market moved to the grey hours however, the market was very quiet through the session with only really the USDJPY at the start of session doing any meaningful movement. Light offers through to the 1.0680 areas with only slightly stronger through to the 1.0700 with possible weak stops likely through the level and the market likely to see stronger offers running through the 1.0740-60 areas and onwards with the 1.0800-20 areas of particular strength. Downside bids into the 1.0600 are likely to be fairly strong with the bids likely to continue through to the 1.0580 areas and then a mix of stops and congestive bids into the 1.0550 areas possibly slowing any decent lower with stronger bids appearing around the 1.0520 areas, those bids are likely to continue through to the 1.0480 areas before the market opens to further downside testing.
- GBP: A quiet start to the week for the Cable with the market ranging through the session between the 1.2485-95 levels for the most part before seeing the market push quietly through to the 1.2500 areas as the market moved towards the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 1.2520-40 areas with possibly stronger offers above the level and continuing through the 1.2550 areas with congestive offers likely to continue through to the 1.2600 areas, downside bids light through to the 1.2450 areas with some limited bids with stronger bids moving in through the 1.2400 and stronger still around the 1.2350 levels, possible weak stops on a push through the 1.2400 areas but likely to be limited, however, with no data for the day the market is likely limited.
- JPY: Early rapture after the meeting between Abe and Trump spurred the USDJPY higher from the opening, pushing from the 113.50 levels to test towards the 114.00 areas before the Tokyo session, the opening in Tokyo saw the market quickly through to test towards the 114.20 areas before running into some offers to curb the impetus and the market steadied to run through a large portion of the session holding around the 113.90 areas before beginning to slip as the session moved on to test the 113.80 levels into the grey hours, GDP numbers on the whole were as expected. With GDP running around the 1.1%, Topside offers through the 114.20 areas with possible weak stops on a move through the 11430 areas and then better offers likely on a push through to the 114.60 levels, some light stops possible on a move through before running into congestive offers around the 115.00 areas. Downside bids light through the 113.50 levels with possibly limited bids continuing through the 113.00 with weak stops on a move back down through the 112.80 likely, before possibly strong bids into the 112.50 level.
- AUD: As the USDJPY headed higher the Oz was forced lower pushing through to 0.7665 levels from the opening around the 0.7680 areas, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market dip to the 0.7660 level and then range between that level and the 0.7675 areas through the session, range bond still with the market seeing offers through into the 77 cent levels possibly strong and with stops likely just as strong on a break and the market then open to test to the 0.7770 areas before possibly strong offers. Downside bids light through to the 0.7620 areas continuing through to the 76 cents area, congestive bids likely to be below the 76 cent and the 75 cent handle possibly just as hampered on any move lower.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 (P) A -0.10% | C -0.20% | P -0.20%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Wholesale Price Index M/M Jan C 0.30% | P 1.20%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â European Commission Economic Forecasts
Weekend News
USD/JPY:
US, Japan Confirm Commitment to Continued Monetary Easing: MOF
U.S.-Japan Framework Could Include FTA, MOF Says
Trump: Very Good Talks with Abe and Representatives at Dinner
Abe, Trump Show Unity in Condemning North Korea Missile Test
USD:
Fed’s Fischer Says Monetary Rules Only Part of Policy Toolkit
Fischer Says Fed Focused on Goals Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty
Trump Team Leery of Having Too Many ‘Goldman Guys’ in Top Posts
Auto CEOs Ask Trump to Revisit Obama-era Fuel Efficiency Rules
EUR:
ECB’s Villeroy: Europe, Euro Needed in Uncertain World: Montagne
EC’s Juncker Says Greek Plan on ‘Shaky Feet’: Deutschlandfunk
Tsipras Says Creditor Differences Making Greek Review Difficult
Juncker Tells Deutschlandfunk He Won’t Run for Second Term
KRW:
North Korea Launches Ballistic Missile, South Korea Military Says
OIL:
U.A.E. Hopes to See More Commitment to Oil-Output Cuts in Months
RUB/USD:
Russia Said to Eye Sending Snowden to U.S. as Gift to Trump: NBC
TRY:
Turkey ‘Yes’ Vote May Push It toward N. Korean Model: CHP Head
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening in Asia around the 1.0655 areas the market remained in the area through to the grey hours with early selling seeing the market testing the 1.0650 and then pushing higher once the early selling had ended to test just above the 1.0665 before ranging listlessly through to the grey hours, the opening in London saw the market drop quickly back to the 1.0640 areas and then basing along the level through to the NYK opening, the market again dropped from the 1.0645 levels the move continued through testing to the 1.0610 levels, the market moved off the level and gradually moved back to the 1.0650 areas into the London close before slipping back as the market moved towards the close.
- GBP: A choppy day for the Cable but reasonably contained, Opening around the 1.2500 levels the market pushed towards the 1.2520 areas before slipping back towards the opening levels as the market moved to the grey hours and nervousness before the figures, the move into the London session with the market testing the 1.2470 areas and then the release of another set of good numbers, the market quickly returned to the highs before drifting back as the normal sentiments of once Brexit occurs everything will change and the future dictates the present, the move lower saw weak stops triggered through to the 1.2440 areas before holding through the NYK opening starting a steady rise through to the 1.2500 level before drifting and finishing just off the figure area.
- JPY: A very limited day really with the early part of the session seeing steady buying through into Tokyo to test towards the 113.80 levels, the move through the Tokyo session saw the market holding around the 113.70 areas, even the move into the London session was pretty quiet with the market drifting back to test the 113.40 levels and holding around the 113.50 levels, the market remained around the level deep through the session in NYK before dipping back to test the 113.10 rising slowly back to the 113.10 level before dropping again and testing the 112.90 areas, the move to the close saw the market test quickly back to the 113.50areas before slipping slowly through to finish close to the 113.20 area.
- AUD: The Oz saw a quiet rise after the initial dip to the 0.7620 areas pushing through to test to the 0.7655 levels in the Tokyo session, the move through the London session and into the NYK was a very quiet period with the market holding around the 0.7645 levels for the most part and only once the Michigan confidence number was out of the way did the market move with the Oz rising to the 0.7670 levels to hold for a period however, a parting shot from the London session saw the market attempting to push through the 0.7690 areas with the market only backing slightly away from those highs through to the close around the 0.7680 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Jan A 0.50% | C 0.00% | P -1.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Dec A 0.40% | C 1.00% | P 0.90% | R 1.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Jan A 51.4B | C 48.8B | P 40.8B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Jan A 354.5B | C 295.3B | P 275.4B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M Dec A -0.40% | C -0.20% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Dec A -10.9B | C -11.5B | P -12.1B | R -11.6B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Dec A 1.10% | C 0.20% | P 2.10% | R 2.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Dec A 4.30% | C 3.20% | P 2.00% | R 2.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Dec A 2.10% | C 0.50% | P 1.30% | R 1.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Dec A 4.00% | C 1.70% | P 1.20% | R 1.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Dec A 1.80% | C 1.00% | P -0.20% | R 0.40%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Jan A 48.3K | C 0.0KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â | P 53.7K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jan A 6.80% | C 6.90% | P 6.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Jan A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Jan A 0.70% | C 0.50% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Feb (P) A 95.7 | C 97.8 | P 98.5
Stay lucky
Andy
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