Untitled

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 113.751 | EURUSD 1.05967 | AUDUSD 0.76404 | NZDUSD 0.71692 | USDCAD 1.30714 | USDCHF 1.0058 | GBPUSD 1.25254 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.06231 | 1.05913

USDJPY                 113.813 | 113.266

GBPUSD               1.25481 | 1.25192

USDCHF               1.00665 | 1.00357

AUDUSD              0.76807 | 0.76385

USDCAD               1.30778 | 1.30459

NZDUSD               0.71927 | 0.71689

EURCHF                1.06618 | 1.06552

EURGBP               0.84679 | 0.84566

EURJPY                 120.576 | 120.292

For Today

• EUR: Moving through to the Tokyo session the market was limited trading on the opening 1.0595 areas and Tokyo were steady buyers with the market rising for the first time to the 1.0610 levels before drifting back to the opening levels, the news that National Security Adviser Michael Flynn has resigned, the market moved slowly off the lows and pushed through the 1.0610 areas and seemed to be reading into the news in a limited fashion as we move towards the grey hours. Topside offers likely limited through the 1.0640-60 areas with possibly stronger offers as the market moves into the 1.0680-1.0720 areas, with possible stops through the level and the market open to the weak offers into the 1.0740 area, strong offers into the 1.0780-1.0820 level with possible break out stops above the levels. Downside bids light into the 1.0600 areas with the bids increasing on a move through and into the 1.0580 level, possible weak stops through the area with the market opening to a push through the 1.0540-60 areas with better bids likely into the 1.0520 areas and through the figure, a break down below the 1.0480 areas could see stronger stops appearing with the market possibly weak through to the 1.0450 areas and the downside open to further selling.
• GBP: Cable ranged through the early part of the session holding between the 1.2520-30 areas until the release of the US news on NSA Michael Flynn, USD then slipped lower through the second half of the session with the Cable rising slowly to the 1.2540 areas the highs from yesterday, Topside offers likely through the 1.2550 areas with stops likely through the level however, some congestive offers likely through to the 1.2600 areas and stronger offers around that level could contain any quick rise higher however, through the 1.2630 the market could see an opening higher and the 1.27 handle open over the next few days, with inflationary numbers in the mix with a heavy data infusion after the past 48hrs, downside bids around the 1.2500 are likely to be light and congestive through to the possibly stronger 1.2450 areas, possible light stops through the level before stronger bids through into the 1.2400 areas, with congestive bids through the level and possibly continuing through to 1.2350 area.
• JPY: A fairly quiet day for the USDJPY with the market drifting through the 113.50 areas having opened around the 113.75 level, the test lower was a result of the Michael Flynn story and before that the market had held in a tight range with little to motivate the market, the market heads into the grey hours holding the 113.50 areas with the news still to be confirmed as official the final minutes into the cut off period saw the market dip down towards the 113.25 level in a weak move, Topside offers light through the 114.20 areas with a push through the level likely to run into limited congestion through to the 114.60 level with possibly light stops through the level and then stronger offers then appearing on a move towards the 114.80-115.00 level, a push through the level is likely to see congestion on a move towards the 115.50 areas with the sentimental levels causing some limited offers. Downside bids into the 113.00 areas with the market seeing bids on a move through with stronger 112.80 level providing some limited support before the 112.00 level and stronger bids.
• AUD: The market moved quietly into the Tokyo session holding the 0.7640 opening levels, the release of a better NAB confidence number and the Oz moved quickly higher testing through the 0.7670 areas eventually and then spending a long portion of the session testing to the 0.7680 level before drifting into the grey hours, Topside offers from the highs onwards into the 77 cent level with stops likely through the 0.7720 areas with limited offers into the mid-range, a push through the 0.7780 areas could see some limited stops into the resistance however, there is likely to be congestive through to the 0.7840 levels and stronger offers possibly strong. Downside bids through to the 76 cent levels with congestive bids likely to absorb any stops with those bids likely to appear continually through to the 75 cent levels with stops appearing below that area.

Overnight News

USD/CNY:

U.S. Said to Eye New Currency Strategy to Pressure China: WSJ

USD:

Full Text of Flynn’s Resignation Letter as Nat. Security Adviser

Dallas Fed’s Kaplan Urges Moving Sooner on Gradual Rate Hikes

CFTC Offers Grace Period for Swap-Collateral Rules Compliance

Steven Mnuchin Is Confirmed by Senate to Be Treasury Secretary

JPY/USD:

Expect to Continue Normal Talks with U.S. on FX: Japan’s Aso

CNY:

China Jan. Consumer Prices +2.5% Y/y; Est. +2.4%

KRW/USD:

Yoo Says No Talks on Korea-U.S. FTA Renegotiation As of Now

EUR:

Greece Said to Plan to Hire Rothschild to Advise on Its Debt: FT

NZD:

New Zealand Houses for Sale Declines, Except in Auckland: REINZ

AUD:

Australia Jan. Business Confidence Rises 4 Pts M/m to 10

Australia ANZ Weekly Consumer Confidence Falls 0.9% to 116.4

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Jan A 10 | P 6

CNY        CPI Y/Y Jan A 2.50% | C 2.40% | P 2.10%

CNY        PPI Y/Y Jan A 6.90% | C 6.60% | P 5.50%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Dec (F) A 0.70% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%

07:00     EUR        German GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) C 0.50% | P 0.20%

07:00     EUR        German CPI M/M Jan (F) C -0.60% | P -0.60%

07:00     EUR        German CPI Y/Y Jan (F) C 1.90% | P 1.90%

08:15     CHF        CPI M/M Jan C -0.10% | P -0.10%

08:15     CHF        CPI Y/Y Jan C 0.30% | P 0.00%

08:15     CHF        Producer & Import Prices M/M Jan C 0.20% | P 0.20%

08:15     CHF        Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jan C 0.50% | P 0.00%

09:00     EUR        Italian GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) C 0.30% | P 0.30%

09:30     GBP       CPI M/M Jan C -0.50% | P 0.50%

09:30     GBP       CPI Y/Y Jan C 1.90% | P 1.60%

09:30     GBP       Core CPI Y/Y Jan C 1.70% | P 1.60%

09:30     GBP       RPI M/M Jan C -0.40% | P 0.60%

09:30     GBP       RPI Y/Y Jan C 2.80% | P 2.50%

09:30     GBP       PPI Input M/M Jan C 1.00% | P 1.80%

09:30     GBP       PPI Input Y/Y Jan C 18.50% | P 15.80%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output M/M Jan C 0.30% | P 0.10%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output Y/Y Jan C 3.20% | P 2.70%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output Core M/M Jan C 0.30% | P 0.00%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output Core Y/Y Jan C 2.20% | P 2.10%

09:30     GBP       House Price Index Y/Y Dec C 6.50% | P 6.70%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec C -1.50% | P 1.50%

10:00     EUR        German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Feb C 15.1 | P 16.6

10:00     EUR        German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) Feb C 77 | P 77.3

10:00     EUR        Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Feb C 22.3 | P 23.2

10:00     EUR        Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) C 0.50% | P 0.50%

13:30     USD       PPI M/M Jan C 0.30% | P 0.30%

13:30     USD       PPI Y/Y Jan P 1.60%

13:30     USD       PPI Core M/M Jan C 0.20% | P 0.20%

13:30     USD       PPI Core Y/Y Jan C 1.10% | P 1.60%

15:00     USD       Fed Chair Yellen Testimony

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: Euro’s opened in line with the close Friday trading just a little bit lower from the opening around the 1.0635 to test into the Tokyo session pushing towards the 1.0610 level before recovering through the early part of the session to trade around the 1.0620 areas into the grey hours, early European buyers saw the market bid a little higher and back to the opening areas with a stronger Wholesale price index in Germany than expected the market pushed quickly through the 1.0650 levels and pushed towards the 1.0660 areas before running out of steam and drifting back to hold below the 1.0645 areas through to the NYK session, and USD buying moved into the session quickly with the market pushing steadily down to the 1.0600 areas the market ranged around the areas from there too the close with the market testing as low as the 1.0590’s.
• GBP: Cable traded through the early part of the session trading around the 1.2490 areas before starting a steady rise to the 1.2500 levels as the market moved towards the grey hours, the rally continued with the market pushing into the London session testing to the 1.2540 levels before dipping back to the 1.2515 areas and starting a slower move through to the highs for a second run, the move into the NYK session saw USD buying and the market moved quickly lower to the opening levels to test the 1.2480 lows before rising back through the rest of the session to the 1.2525 areas into the close.
• JPY: With Abe and Trump meeting over the weekend the talk was general and very little was released to the public on the Presidents opinions on currencies and so the market read it as good news as the two of them finished a round of golf and chatted about mutual security, the USDJPY opened around the 113.50 levels about 30 pips higher than the close and continued to rally through the early part of the session, Tokyo opening saw the highs of the day quickly made as the market pushed towards the 114.20 areas before drifting back to hold around the 113.90 into the grey hours, the market then moved through the session ranging between the 113.50-114.00 levels for the most part with very little in the way of strong movements on the day and finishing the day around the 113.75 levels.
• AUD: The Oz limped through the first half of the day, with the RBA seemingly happy with current levels but committed to acting in whichever direction they need too. So the market opened around the 0.7680 areas and then traded around the 0.7670 levels through to the NYK session with the opening level the high of the day, NYK opening and USD buying saw the Oz drop back through to the 0.7630 areas before recovering to the 0.7650 areas and then drifting to the close.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%

JPY         GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 (P) A -0.10% | C -0.20% | P -0.20%

EUR        German Wholesale Price Index M/M Jan A 0.80% | C 0.30% | P 1.20%

EUR       European Commission Economic Forecasts

Good Luck,

Andy

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