Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 114.159 | EURUSD 1.0600 | AUDUSD 0.7711 | NZDUSD 0.72024 | USDCAD 1.30812 | USDCHF 1.0054 | GBPUSD 1.24614 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06245 | 1.05907
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.306 | 113.759
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24732 | 1.24548
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00564 | 1.00312
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77316 | 0.77061
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30769 | 1.3055
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72425 | 0.72143
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06614 | 1.06541
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85255 | 0.84981
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.169 | 120.807
For Today
- EUR: Initial weakness through to the Tokyo opening saw the market move off the 1.0590 level and push gradually through the 1.0600 level to test through the 1.0620 areas before ranging quietly through to the grey hours holding the 1.0610-20 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.0640-60 stronger levels before weak stops are likely to appear, the push through to the 1.0700 is likely to see offers again increasing with the 1.0710 areas likely to see a mixture behind of stops and offers with the market possibly squeezing to the 1.0740 areas, Downside bids light through the 1.0600 areas with limited bids until the 1.0560-40 areas with some limited congestion and the market opening to the stronger 1.0520 level with bids likely to continue down to around the 1.0480 areas and possibly strong stops appearing.
- GBP: A very quiet day for the Cable with the market moving to above the 1.2470 areas several times and testing through the 1.2460 in directionless market, Topside offers light through the 1.2500 areas with better offers through the 1.2550 levels with a possibility of limited stops on a push towards the 1.2580 areas and offers likely to increase into the 1.2600 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2450 with likely weak stops through the level and stronger bids again around the 1.2400 area, and for the moment key 1.2350 area the strong point.
- JPY: Opening around the 114.15 areas the market tested to the 114.30 level to post the high for the day before the market started to slip lower on the Tokyo opening, moving through the 114.00 level eventually triggering some minor stops on its way to trade along the 113.80 area through to the grey hours. Topside offers a little weak until the 114.80 areas where the market starts to see at first weak offers building into some exporter type offers through to the 115.20 areas, a move through the level will see some lighter offers continuing through to the stronger 115.50 areas with possibly a large move once through. Downside bids light through to the 113.00 with the light congestive bids, even the 113.00 level is probably light with only congestive bids around the level with nothing particularly strong really until the 112.00 areas.
- AUD: The Oz is through the 77 cent level and as with the previous levels struggles to make any headway with the market rising from the lows just below 0.7710 to test through to the 0.7730 level before drifting back to the opening levels and holding quietly through to the grey hours. Topside offers into the 0.7740-60 levels and the market likely to be offered into the 0.7770-80 with weak stops possibly behind the level and leaving the 78 cent vulnerable, Downside bids light through to the 0.7650 levels however, given the previous movements the market may even struggle into the 77 cent area.
Overnight News
USD:
Fed’s Dudley Sees Rates Being Raised Gradually in Months Ahead
Fed’s Dudley Says he Sees Balance Sheet as a Passive Policy Tool
CNY:
China Jan. FDI Falls 9.2% On Year in Yuan Terms; Est. +1.4%
China Said to Plan Rules to Curb Listed Company Secondary Issues
China Has ‘Lots of Room’ to Open Capital Markets: Fin. News
JPY:
BOJ’s Kuroda Warns of Impact of Low Bank Profitability
Japanese Sold Net 297.4 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
JPY/USD:
Aso, Mnuchin Speak by Phone; Aso Suggests March G-20 Meeting
AUD:
Australian Employment Rose 13,500 in Jan.; Est 10,000
RBA’s Ellis: Most Mortgages Held By Those Able to Service Them
NZD:
Joyce Says Risks to NZ Outlook Almost Exclusively International
N.Z. Consumer Confidence Adds to Signs of Economic Momentum: ANZ
NZD:
Fonterra Offers More at Auction as NZ Milk Collection Improves
GBP/EUR:
U.K. Plans to Ask for Share of >EU150b Assets from EU: Times
EUR:
Bundesbank’s Wuermeling Warns Against Global Currency War: BZ
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Feb A 4.10% | P 4.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Jan A 13.5K | C 10.0K | P 13.5K | R 16.3K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jan A 5.70% | C 5.80% | P 5.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jan C 1.23M | P 1.23M
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Jan C 1.23M | P 1.21M
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 11) C 245K | P 234K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey C 17.5 | P 23.6
14:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB’s Coeure Speaks in Maastricht
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -152B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A very quiet session through Asia with the market sliding from the opening 1.0575 areas to test into the mix 1.0560’s before slowly rising towards the 1.0585 areas, the move into the grey hours saw the market slowly slipping lower and the London opening saw the market continuing to test through to below the 1.0550 level before finding some support, the market moved quietly through to the NYK session with the Eurozone trade balance a little better than expected but soured by a small revision lower, the US numbers saw the market drop quickly with slightly higher than expected CPI numbers and better retail sales, the Euro testing to the 1.0520 levels before steadily climbing higher with a rerun of Yellen’s testimony with the market pushing back through to the London close testing back above the 1.0600 areas to finish the day just short of the highs.
- GBP: The market opened around the 1.2470 areas before dipping on the move into the Tokyo session, the market then ranged through the Asian session basing off the 1.2450 levels for the most part but struggling on any move towards the opening levels, the move through into London saw very little movement before the release employment numbers and while the market saw gains in employment it was limited and the market ignored the drop in European workers by 50k however, the move lower could have been this very fact with the market dropping down to the 1.2420 areas and holding through into the NYK session before again dipping to post lows in the 1.2380 area before catching a short squeeze into the US releases testing quickly back through the opening levels and touching the 1.2480 level with a quiet end to the session holding just below the opening levels.
- JPY: A quiet sideways move through the Asian session with the market opening just below the 114.30 levels and then pushing into the London session to test the 114.60 levels through to the NYK session, a quick move on the early numbers saw the USDJPY pushing quickly to above the 114.90 area before drifting down back to the 114.40-50 areas before dropping quickly back to the 113.90 as the later US numbers hit the market, the end of the session saw the market ranging around the closing 114.20 areas.
- AUD: As with the USDJPY the market saw limited movement through the Asian session with the market attempting the 0.7680 areas a couple of times however, Tokyo saw the early lows into the 0.7655 areas quickly and then rising back for the move into the London session, some light buying saw the market move a little bit higher however, there was very little movement until the US numbers saw the Oz drop to the 0.7640 levels before rising steadily through the rest of the session to test above the 77 cent areas touching 0.7720 before drifting to a close just below the areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Feb A 2.30% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Jan A -42.4K | C 1.0K | P -10.1K | R -20.5K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Jan A 2.10% | C 2.30% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Dec A 4.80% | C 4.80% | P 4.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Dec A 2.60% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Dec A 24.5B | C 22.5B | P 22.7B | R 22.2B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Dec A 2.30% | C 0.30% | P 1.50% | R 2.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Feb A 18.7 | C 7 | P 6.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jan A 0.60% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jan A 2.50% | C 2.40% | P 2.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Jan A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Jan A 2.30% | C 2.10% | P 2.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Jan A 0.40% | C 0.10% | P 0.60% | R 1.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Jan A 0.80% | C 0.40% | P 0.20% | R 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Jan A -0.30% | C 0.00% | P 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Jan A 75.30% | C 75.50% | P 75.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Feb A 65 | C 67 | P 67
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Dec A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.70% | R 0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed Chair Yellen Testimony
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 9.5M | C 3.7M | P 13.8M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Dec A -$42.8B | P $30.8B | R $30.2B
Good Luck,
Andy
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