Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.238 | EURUSD 1.06737 | AUDUSD 0.76952 | NZDUSD 0.7228 | USDCAD 1.30713 | USDCHF 0.9970 | GBPUSD 1.24887 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06766 | 1.06615
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.507 | 113.188
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25107 | 1.24798
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99826 | 0.99689
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77131 | 0.76836
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30866 | 1.30604
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72201 | 0.72006
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06455 | 1.06401
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85581 | 0.85310
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.099 | 120.828
For Today
- EUR: A quiet session with weak selling into the Tokyo session to test towards the 1.0660 levels before returning to the opening levels around the 1.0675 areas and trading through to the grey hours holding the level, Topside offers through the 1.0680 levels and continuing through to the 1.0710-20 areas before weak stops appear and the market possibly moves to test the 1.0740-60 with a push through the level seeing a strong offering area around the 1.0800 levels. Downside bids light back through the 1.0600 areas and the market likely to see weak stops on a move back through the 1.0580 area and the 1.0550, 1.0500 becoming vulnerable again.
- GBP: With Brexit likely to be very contentious with yesterday’s talks of, ok you want us to pay for liabilities then of course we’ll be getting a portion of the assets when we leave? The Cable remained in a fairly tight range and moved through into the Tokyo session repeatedly testing the 1.2480 levels, Tokyo were quick buyers and the market pushed quickly above the 1.2500 levels again and then held above the level through to the grey hours with 1.2510 close to the highs for the day, Topside offers through the 1.2520 levels are likely to see weak stops through the area and the market with stronger offers likely through the 1.2550 areas, a push through sees some resistance into the 1.2600 levels with some congestion into the level, Downside bids into the 1.2450 areas likely to be reasonably strong with possibility of weak stops through the level and a repeat of the stabs lower we’ve seen previously with the 1.2400 level likely to be a little stronger.
- JPY: A very quiet Friday for the USDJPY with the market hedging higher once it moved into the Tokyo session to test the 113.50 levels for a few hours before drifting back off towards the opening levels around the 113.30 areas and settling in to trade around the 113.40 area through to the grey hours. Topside light offers into the 114.00 areas with weak stops on a push through the level likely to see the market pushing towards the 114.40 areas and congestive offers from that point onwards into the 115.00 stronger offers. Downside bids through into the 113.00 levels with those congestive bids likely to extend through to the 112.50 areas and then bids increasing on a drop towards the 112.00 levels.
- AUD: Moving from the opening around the 0.7695 levels the market moved into the Tokyo session testing quickly lower too the 0.7685 areas and the lows from the previous 24hrs, the market bounced off the level and quickly recaptured the 77 cent areas holding through for several hours around the 0.7700-10 areas before slowly rising to push through as the market moved towards the grey hours, Topside offers into the 0.7740-60 areas with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7775 areas to open up a test of the 78 cent level and then strong offers again beyond the level extending to the 0.7850 areas. Downside bids light down through the 0.7700 areas and while its light there are bids into the 0.7680 levels with possible weak stops through the level but plenty of congestion on any moves lower through to the 76 cent areas and beyond.
Overnight News
JPY/USD:
Aso: Specific Contents of U.S.-Japan Economic Talks Not Decided
CNY:
China Liquidity to Remain in ’Tight Balance’: Financial News
China to Study Tightening Laws Against IPO Fraud: Sec. News
China End-Jan. Yuan Positions at PBOC Balance Sheet 21.7t Yuan
SGD:
Singapore 4Q GDP +12.3% Q/q; Estimate +12.6%
Singapore Jan. Non-Oil Domestic Exports +8.6% Y/y; Est. +9.6%
NZD/AUD:
New Zealand, Australia Agree to Seek TPP Agreement Without U.S.
NZD:
New Zealand 4Q Retail Sales Led Higher by Vehicles, Fuel
RBNZ Reiterates Global Upward Pressure on NZD May be Turning
RBNZ Briefs Joyce on Bank Capital Review, IMF Assessment
NZ International Visitor Total Spending Rises, Average Declines
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Jan A 51.6 | P 54.5 | R 54.2
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q/Q A 0.80% | C 1.00% | P 0.90% | R 0.80%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Dec P 36.1B
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jan C 1.00% | P -1.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Dec P 7.24B
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Jan P 0.50%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: The Euro opened around the 1.0600 level and dipped in the early part of the session to the 1.0590 areas before moving through to the 1.0620 levels into the Tokyo session, the move through Asia was quiet with the market trading around that 1.0620 areas into the grey hours, slow drift back to the opening levels before early London quickly bought and took the market to the 1.0640 areas, the move through to the NYK session gently nudging through the 1.0650 levels, slightly higher than previous on the initial claims saw the USD slip a little and with Trump making a daily announcement on how well he’s doing in his first 4 weeks and plenty of big things for next week the Euro pushed to the 1.0680 areas before finding resistance and the market slipping only slightly for the close. The ECB Monetary policy meeting suggests little change and while Mr Trump may continue on the subject the ECB is not likely to start tapering for the moment.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2460 areas the move through to the London session saw the market trading for the most part between the 1.2460-70 levels with a brief dip through the low side and above the topside to create something like a 15pip range the move into the grey hours started a steady rise in GBP with the market in Cable pushing through to the 1.2520 areas before moving choppily through to the NYK session, the market ranged through to the London close between the 1.2520-1.2490 areas before dipping on the close as the market failed to push beyond the highs in time, with London closed the market started a steady recovery having reached the opening levels again and tested to the 1.2500 areas again before finishing just off those levels.
- JPY: USDJPY made early highs touching through the 114.30 level before slipping back into the Tokyo session and trading initially to the 114.00 areas, the market traded in steps all the way through the day with another dip in the first couple of hours in Tokyo to hold around the 113.80 areas, the market held the 113.80 area through to the London opening before dipping again this time into the 113.50 areas and as before the market held through to the NYK session with Philly Survey helping the USD a little higher before dropping back to test through to the 113.10 areas and ranged through the area through to the close.
- AUD: A very quiet session again with employment numbers disappointing the market and early buying from the 0.7710 areas testing to the 0.7730 level, the market was reasonably well contained but choppy even so with the move through to the London session with the market pushing back from the grey hour lows around the 0.7695 to test the 0.7720 however, it was short lived with some GBPAUD buying seeing the Oz dipping to the 0.7685 lows of the day, the move into the NYK session saw the market again testing to the 0.7720 levels before moving around and eventually settling down to trade around the 0.7695 levels to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Feb A 4.10% | P 4.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Jan A 13.5K | C 10.0K | P 13.5K | R 16.3K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jan A 5.70% | C 5.80% | P 5.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jan A 1.25M | C 1.23M | P 1.23M | R 1.28M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Jan A 1.29M | C 1.23M | P 1.21M | R 1.23M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 11) A 239K | C 245K | P 234K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Survey A 43.3 | C 17.5 | P 23.6
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -114B | C -124B | P -152B
Good Luck,
Andy
Last one for a week with the fish trembling at the approaching torment or that could be me just thinking about how cold it will be on the bankside.
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