Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 114.411 | EURUSD 1.05063 | AUDUSD 0.75720 | NZDUSD 0.70561 | USDCAD 1.33903 | USDCHF 1.01333 | GBPUSD 1.22680 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.05233 | 1.05024
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.476 | 114.073
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22827 | 1.22573
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01369 | 1.0123
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75769 | 0.7543
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33987 | 1.33822
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70655 | 0.70308
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06544 | 1.06465
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85783 | 0.85595
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.235 | 120.019
For Today
- EUR: The move into the Tokyo session saw the market pushing up from the 1.0505 areas and then held around the 1.0520 levels through to the grey hours with very little volume, topside light offers on a move through the 1.0550 areas with stronger offers through the 1.0580 areas and into the 1.0600 levels, likely weak stops through the level before stronger offers into the 1.0640-60 areas take over, PMI numbers and retail sales for Europe are likely to dominate the market however, it has been a quiet end to the week so far, Downside bids into the 1.0500 levels however, a drop through the 1.0485 area could see some strong selling appear with weak stops and the market opening to ranges from Dec/Jan and the stronger bids through 1.0450 and then likely thinning until the 1.0350 areas.
- GBP: Cable on the wide ranged between the 1.2260-80 areas but generally maintained the 1.2270 areas moving around the level to head into the grey hours just off the lows. Downside bids into the 1.2250 areas and possibly the strongest area with only light congestion through to the 1.2200 areas and the market becoming vulnerable to another test to the years lows if the market pushes beyond 1.2150 however, with Services PMI only for GBP the market will likely wait for that number before deciding its next move. Topside offers light through to the 1.2400 areas with possible weak stops on a move through the level and the market then congested over the 1.2400-1.2500 areas and struggling for information the range is likely to be limited.
- JPY: A slow drift in a slow market for the USDJPY, opening around the 114.40 areas the market made its highs before Tokyo opening and then slipped slowly lower to run along the 114.10 areas into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 114.60 areas a move through the level will likely see some weak stops however, these are likely to be quickly absorbed on any attempt to break the 114.80-115.00 levels and possibly a quiet day. Downside bids into the 113.50 areas with the market likely seeing stronger bids from the 113.20-00 level with plenty of congestion just through that level.
- AUD: A light drift to test from the opening 0.7570 level and too the 0.7550 level briefly moving through the level and then holding in a tight range just above that area to the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 76 cent levels with limited potential of stops on a push through the 0.7620 areas and a return to the 0.7650 areas with possibly light offers around the level and building towards the failed 77 cent area, downside bids into the 0.7550 areas and possibly continuing through to the 75 cent areas a push through the level has the potential to see decent stops appearing however, they are likely to be absorbed by congestion with 0.7450 likely to see further bids appearing.
Overnight News
USD:
Fed’s Mester wants to move rates up a bit more before shrining balance sheet
JPY/USD:
Japan’s Aso says wants to discuss rules for free trade with U.S.
JPY:
Japan Jan. Core Consumer Prices Rise 0.1% Y/y; Est. 0%
Japan Jan. Unemployment Rate at 3%, Matching Est.
Nikkei Japan Feb. Services PMI 51.3 vs 51.9 in Jan.
Aso: Cabinet Approves Changes to Finance and Banking Laws
EUR:
Greece Said to Request Assistance from World Bank: Politico
KRW/USD:
- Korea, U.S. Trade Heads to Meet Next Week in U.S.
CNY:
PBOC to Keep Prudent, Neutral Monetary Policy: People’s Daily
Caixin China Feb. Services PMI 52.6 vs 53.1 in Jan.
NZD:
New Zealand 4Q Construction Work Rises 1.9% Q/Q; Estimate 1.5%
Auckland House Prices Rise as Sales Fall to 6-Year Low: Barfoot
New Zealand Export Commodity Prices Rise 2% on Beef, Aluminium
AUD:
Australia Feb. Services Index Falls 5.5 Pts M/m to 49.0
SGD:
Nikkei Singapore Feb. Whole Economy PMI 51.4 vs 51.6 in Jan.
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Rate Jan A 3.00% | C 3.00% | P 3.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y Jan A -1.20% | C -0.30% | P -0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Jan A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P -0.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Feb A -0.30% | C -0.20% | P -0.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Services Feb A 52.6 | P 53.1
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Feb A 43.1 | C 43.5 | P 43.2
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M Jan C 0.30% | P -0.90%
08:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Feb C 52.8 | P 52.4
08:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Feb (F) C 56.7 | P 56.7
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Feb (F) C 54.4 | P 54.4
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Feb (F) C 55.6 | P 55.6
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Feb C 54 | P 54.5
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jan C 0.30% | P -0.30%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Feb C 56.5 | P 56.5
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Limited range for the day with the market still offered but struggling into the supportive 1.0490-1.0500 areas, the market opened around the 1.0550 areas and moving lower as the early Tokyo players moved in to test to the 1.0530 level and then base along that area in a tight range through to the grey hours, light attempts to push lower before early London started to push towards the opening levels, limited reaction to Eurozone numbers and the market slowly drifted down to the 1.0500 areas, the market remained supported through the rest of the session with limited movement to the topside before finishing the day just off the lows.
- GBP: Cable as with the Euro had a limited day and took nearly all day to test the lows however, having dipped from the opening level into Tokyo the market held through the 1.2280 areas through to the London session, while the range increased the general movement was the same with the market topping out into the NYK opening around the 1.2310 areas before drifting back to the 1.2260 areas, the market then moved to the close drifting to test the 1.2250 areas before finishing the day around the 1.2270 areas on a low volume day.
- JPY: USD rallied from the entry of the Tokyo traders with the market moving to the 114.10 from the opening 113.70 areas, the market then traded around the 114.00 until the grey hours, rising slowly in the London session the market pushed quietly through deep into the NYK session testing the 114.60 levels before running out of steam and slipping back to finish short of the highs.
- AUD: The Oz opened on its highs before slipping from the 0.7680 areas and then holding the 0.7650 areas through to the London session, as the USD strengthened through the session and the push through the 0.7630 areas saw some limited stops and the market moving into the NYK session testing the 76 cent levels with a gradual grind through the level and slipping slowly to the 0.7560 areas and the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Feb A 21.40% | C 23.20% | P 22.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Jan A 1.30B | C 3.82B | P 3.51B | R 3.33B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Jan A 1.80% | C -0.50% | P -1.20% | R -2.50%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P 0.00% | R 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Jan A 0.90% | C 0.50% | P 1.90%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jan A -1.40% | P -3.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Feb A 52.5 | C 52 | P 52.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Jan A 0.70% | C 0.60% | P 0.70% | R 0.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jan A 3.50% | C 3.20% | P 1.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jan A 9.60% | C 9.60% | P 9.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Feb A 2.00% | C 1.90% | P 1.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Feb (A) A 0.90% | C 0.90% | P 0.90%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Dec A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 25) A 223K | C 245K | P 244K | R 242K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 7B | C -5B | P -89B
Good Luck,
Andy
Last one for a week with the fish trembling at the approaching torment or that could be me just thinking about how cold it will be on the bankside.
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