Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.982 | EURUSD 1.05663 | AUDUSD 0.75876 | NZDUSD 0.69827 | USDCAD 1.34127 | USDCHF 1.01328 | GBPUSD 1.22006 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.05744 | 1.05579
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.996 | 113.609
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22144 | 1.21988
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01408 | 1.01263
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76089 | 0.7586
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34179 | 1.33981
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69735 | 0.69559
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07096 | 1.07072
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86642 | 0.86537
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.441 | 120.022
For Today
- EUR: Another limited day with early buying taking the market only to the 1.0575 areas through into the Tokyo session before drifting through the rest of the session down to the 1.0560 areas, with polls suggesting that French politics are broken and Republican and Socialist parties consumed with infighting leaving the opportunity for the right wing Le Pen causing further fears of what that would entail, Topside offers light through to the 1.0580-1.0600 levels with possible weak stops on a move through and stronger offers moving in around the 1.0640-60 area, limited numbers for the Eurozone leaves the market dependent on US numbers, downside bids into the 1.0500 areas with the likelihood of strong stops on a move through the 1.0480 areas and the market then sees congestive bids into the 1.0440-60 areas with stronger bids on any move towards the 1.0400 areas.
- GBP: A very limited day with the market ranging from the opening around the 1.2200 areas to test towards the 1.2215 into the early Tokyo session before drifting back to just a little bit below the 1.2200 areas. Topside offers light through the 1.2250 areas with the market likely seeing weak offers continuing until the 1.2300 levels and possibly stronger, possible stops through the level and the potential for a squeeze higher if the Budget release is pleasing. A move through the level will see some congestion on the move however the 1.2400 will become quickly vulnerable. Downside bids through the 1.2200 levels with stronger bids building as the market moves towards the 1.2150 areas with weak congestion likely continuing however, a weak Budget and the market could see a sharp reaction.
- JPY: A weaker than expected GDP figure but better than the previous call and the JPY began to strengthen from the release with the market dropping from the opening around the 114.00 areas to test steadily down through the session to the 113.60 areas before finding limited support and returning to the 113.75 areas for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 114.20 areas with possible weak stops on a move through the area, light congestion into the 114.60 levels however, a break here will see the market pushing to the 115.00 and stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 113.50 areas with congestion likely to continue through to the 113.00 areas and limited bids mixed with some weak stops, a push through the level sees bids increasing as the market moves to the 112.50 areas and likely to increase further into the 112.00 area if the market were to come under pressure.
- AUD: Quiet session for the Oz with the market moving quietly higher from the opening around the 0.7590 areas to test into the late session towards the 0.7610 level, numbers from CNY saw the Oz dipping back to the opening levels and then holding below the 0.7600 areas. Topside offers through the 0.7630 areas with weak stops likely but possibly absorbed quickly into the 0.7640-60 areas and stronger offers as the market again moves to the 77 cent level. Downside bids into the 0.7540 areas with congestion likely to run towards the 0.7530 area a push through the level will likely see some weak stops and the market testing the 75 cent level and stronger bids.
Overnight News
CNY/USD:
China, U.S. Preparing for Presidential Meeting: Foreign Minister
CNY:
China Feb. Exports Rise 4.2% Y/y in Yuan Terms; Est. 14.6%
China Suggests N. Korea to Suspend Nuclear Development: Minister
China Enhanced Scrutiny of Outbound Investments: SAFE Official
China to ‘Steadily’ Pursue Global Yuan, PBOC’s Yi Says: News
KRW/CNY:
S.Korea to Make Economic, Diplomatic Effort on China Issues: Yoo
JPY/USD:
Japanese Sell U.S. Sovereign Debt in Longest Streak Since 2013
JPY:
Japan Jan. Current-Acct Surplus 65.5b Yen; Est. +270.0b Yen
Japan Revised 4Q GDP Rises Annualized 1.2%; Est. +1.5%
USD:
Ross Says He’s Taken No Position on Border Adjustment Tax
IMF:
Global Imbalances Remain Above Desirable Levels: IMF’s Furusawa
NZD:
New Zealand Manufacturing Volumes Led Lower by Meat, Dairy
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Jan A 1.26T | C 1.46T | P 1.67T | R 1.66T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 (F) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Bank Lending incl Trusts Y/Y Feb A 2.80% | P 2.50%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Feb A -60B | C 173B | P 355B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Jan (P) A 105.5 | C 105.4 | P 104.8
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current Feb A 50.6 | C 49.9 | P 49.8
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Feb A | C 27.8B | P 51.4B
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Jan C 2.60% | P -3.00%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.00%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Feb P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Annual Budget Release
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Feb C 184K | P 246K
13:15Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Feb C 205K | P 207K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q4 (F) C 1.50% | P 1.30%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q4 (F) C 1.60% | P 1.70%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Productivity Q/Q Q4 P 1.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Jan P -6.60%
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 1.5M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet day for the Euro with the market drifting around the 1.0580 areas, light selling from the opening around the 1.0585 areas testing too the 1.0575 level before rising steadily through to the 1.0590 area, and ranging between those levels through into the grey hours, early London took the market to the highs testing briefly through the 1.0600 areas before dropping back steadily to make the lows in the early morning period in London, the market then spent the rest of the London session pinned below the 1.0580 until the close with light buying testing the 1.0590 areas, the move to the close again saw the market holding around the 1.0565 areas in a quiet end.
- GBP: A quiet Asian session saw the market pushing gradually towards the 1.2250 levels however, the move towards the Grey hours saw the market again drifting lower and a test into the London opening around the 1.2220 levels, the market struggled with bids on the move and the test to the 1.2200 levels and then quickly through to the 1.2180 areas were the market held through into the NYK session, NYK buyers of the USD saw the market testing the 1.2170 level however, the bids eventually won this round with the market gradually testing back above the 1.2200 areas and holding the 1.2200-10 levels through to the close.
- JPY: A quiet day for the USDJPY with the market spending a second day ranging tightly, with the 113.90 level acting more of a base today the market pushed through the 114.00 levels into the Tokyo session, the move through into the London session saw the lows made with the pair slipping down to the 113.70 area before recovering after a brief dip and again trading around the 114.00 level for the bulk of the session, the NYK session saw the market test above the 114.10 areas however, it was unable to push to far and finished the day just shy of the 114.00 levels.
- AUD: The Oz had more of an interesting day even if it was still limited in reaction, the move from the opening saw the Oz rising quietly into the Tokyo session testing into the 76 cent levels, the release of the RBA announcement saw limited reaction with the market spiking to the 0.7625 levels and then testing back through 76 cents before a more concerted fresh wave of buying moved into the market and pushed through to the 0.7630 levels failing for the second time and then drifting into the London session struggling to hold the gains, London were solid sellers through to early morning taking the market down to the 0.7585 level and this became the base for the day as the market ranged from that level to the 0.7610 area through to the close to finish just below the figure.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Feb A -0.40% | C -0.50% | P -0.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Jan A -7.40% | C -2.50% | P 5.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Feb A 668B | P 643.7B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Jan A -48.5B | C -47.0B | P -44.3B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Jan A 0.81B | C 0.75B | P 0.92B | R 0.45B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Feb A 55 | C 58.9 | P 57.2
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Activity Q4 A 0.80% | P 0.40% | R 1.10%
Good Luck,
Andy
Last one for a week with the fish trembling at the approaching torment or that could be me just thinking about how cold it will be on the bankside.
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