Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 114.369 | EURUSD 1.05412 | AUDUSD 0.75275 | NZDUSD 0.69074 | USDCAD 1.3492 | USDCHF 1.01475 | GBPUSD 1.21683 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.05478 | 1.05283
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.593 | 114.368
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.21780 | 1.21525
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01606 | 1.01418
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75342 | 0.75036
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34997 | 1.34831
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69172 | 0.68923
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07014 | 1.06941
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86665 | 0.86562
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.748 | 120.513
For Today
- EUR: Limited movement with the early pre Tokyo pushing slowly above the 1.0545 areas, Tokyo sold the market through the opening level and the market traded through to midsession before dipping back to the 1.0530 levels for the move into the grey hours. Topside offers light through to the 1.0560 areas with possible weak stops, with better offers likely into the 1.0580-1.0600 levels, with the ECB rate decision likely to be unchanged it will depend on the commentary for direction with pressure building for an end to QE by Germany, so will Draghi cause further discussion by Pres Trump on currency interference, A push above the 1.0600 levels will likely see some limited congestion through to the mid 1.06 levels with some weaker offers until 1.0700 areas, downside bids into the 1.0500 areas with a break here seeing quick stops appearing and the market pushing through to 1.0480 areas and stronger bids, strong stops likely through the level and the market opening to weak congestion into the 1.0450 and stronger bids into the 1.0400 level.
- GBP: Early buying saw the market pushing to above the 1.2175 areas before a little selling from the Tokyo opening set the market back to the 1.2165 areas in light trading the market moved through the session holding the low area for the bulk of the session and slipping a little lower through towards the grey hours to run along the 1.2155 areas. Bids remain below the 1.2140 levels with limited bids into the 1.2100 likely to be a key point, with limited bids through to the 1.2000 areas for the movement, topside offers light through the 1.2200 areas with a move through the 1.2220 areas likely to see weak stops and the market becoming vulnerable to the 1.2300 levels and possibly strong offers around the level but the market opening quickly towards the 1.2350-1.2400 areas.
- JPY: Opening around the 114.40 areas the market saw limited range with the market basing off the 114.40 levels but unable to push beyond the 114.60 levels with very quiet volumes for the day. Topside offers light through the 114.60 areas with the market seeing stronger offers likely through the 114.80-115.00 levels, a push through the 115.20 areas will likely see some weak stops but with congestion through to the 115.50 level the market is likely to struggle. Downside bids light into the 114.00 level however, the congestion around the level is likely to slow any dips for the moment and only a push through the 113.50 areas will open the downside again, initial jobless claims are likely to be the important numbers for the day.
- AUD: From the opening around the 0.7520 areas the market held around the 0.7530 through into the Tokyo session before starting a slow drift lower to the 0.7505 areas before holding into the grey hours on light trading. Downside bids light into the 0.7500 level with possibly strong bids appearing on a move through the level a break towards the 0.7460 areas are likely to see bids continuing however, possibly through 0.7440 the stops will appear and the market could see quick weakness lower. Topside offers light through to the 0.7600 areas, with strong offers likely from 0.7580 onwards, with a push through the 0.7640 areas likely to be met by congestion all the way through to stronger 77 cent offers.
Overnight News
USD/CNY:
Tillerson Visit, Maternity Beds, New Drone: Eye on Chinese Media
CNY:
China Feb. Consumer Prices +0.8% Y/y; Est. +1.7%
Chinese Banks’ NPL Ratio May Rise to ~1.8% in 2017: Daily
CNY/PHP:
China to Buy $1b Farm Products from Philippines, Inquirer Says
JPY/USD:
Japan Team for U.S. Economic Dialogue Won’t Include Ag. Ministry
JPY:
Japanese Sold Net 1.1 Trillion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
Toyota Mulls Raising Base Pay for Fourth Straight Year, NHK Says
Japan’s Jan. Wages Rise 0.5% Y/y, Real Wages Unchanged
Kuroda: Not Considering Sims Theory as Realistic Policy Idea
Japan Says North Korea Missiles Have Become a Real Threat
North Korea’s Latest Missiles Got Closest Yet to Japan, NHK Says
CAD/USD:
Canada’s Carr to Discuss Border Tax With Perry This Month
AUD:
Turnbull: Credible Path to Surplus to Help Maintain AAA Rating
GBP:
U.K. Feb. RICS House Price Index at 24 vs Est. 23
PHP/CNY:
Philippines Says China Structures in Disputed Sea Very Extensive
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Jan A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P 0.10% | R 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Feb A 24% | C 23% | P 25% | R 24%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Feb A 0.80% | C 1.80% | P 2.50%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Feb A 7.80% | C 7.50% | P 6.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb (P) A 9.10% | P 3.50%
06:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb C 3.30% | P 3.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Feb P -38.80%
12:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Rate Q4 P 81.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Jan P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Feb C 0.10% | P 0.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 04) C 237K | P 223K
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 7B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A steady drift lower over the course of the day with the market opening around the 1.0565 areas testing into early Tokyo to the 1.0575 before starting the move, the move into the grey hours saw a small recovery from the 1.0558 area, the fall back to the 1.0550 level came once early German numbers were out of the way, the market held through to the NYK session and a strong ADP number saw a quick break to the 1.0535 levels before recovering to the 1.0560 areas and drifting through the session to finish only just above those lows.
- GBP: A tight range through the Asian session with the market moving off the 1.2200 areas and ranging through the Asian session between the lows and 1.2215 area, the move into the grey hours saw early London quickly sell the market off to the 1.2175 areas and then a steady grind down through to the 1.2150 areas with abrief spike to the 1.2140 level as with the Euro there was a limited rally through to the release of the Budget announcement with more of a placating set of changes than major changes. The move through NYK tested the lows again before slowly rising to the 1.2170 levels to the close.
- JPY: Slow light trading from the opening around the 114.00 levels to test to the 113.60 into the midsession and holding the levels, grey hours buying into early London saw the market recovering its loses then firmly pushing through the 114.00 level from the opening in London, the move into the NYK session saw the market rising quickly on the ADP numbers and the push through the 114.30 level saw the market gap towards the 114.70 areas and holding through too late in the session before slipping a little back to the 114.40 area.
- AUD: The Tokyo session saw limited Oz buying before the CNY numbers with the market testing towards the 0.7610 areas before slipping back to the opening 0.7590 area, the move into the London session saw the market drop back quickly as early London moved in and the market tested to the 0.7560 areas and held into the NYK session, the ADP numbers were sufficient to set the market back below 0.7550 area and a steady drift to a close testing the support into the 0.7530 level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Jan A 1.26T | C 1.46T | P 1.67T | R 1.66T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 (F) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Bank Lending incl Trusts Y/Y Feb A 2.80% | P 2.50%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Feb A -60B | C 173B | P 355B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Jan (P) A 105.5 | C 105.4 | P 104.8
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current Feb A 50.6 | C 49.9 | P 49.8
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Feb A -9.1B | C 27.8B | P 51.4B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Jan A 2.80% | C 2.60% | P -3.00% | R 2.40%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Feb A 0.60% | C 0.20% | P 0.00%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Feb A 0.50% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Annual Budget Release
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Feb A 298K | C 184K | P 246K | R 261K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Feb A 210K | C 205K | P 207K | R 209K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q4 (F) A 1.30% | C 1.50% | P 1.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q4 (F) A 1.70% | C 1.60% | P 1.70%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Productivity Q/Q Q4 A 0.40% | P 1.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Jan A 5.40% | C 5.00% | P -6.60% | R -4.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 8.2M | C 1.1M | P 1.5M
Good Luck,
Andy
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