Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 114.879 | EURUSD 1.06531 | AUDUSD 0.75709 | NZDUSD 0.679274 | USDCAD 1.34458 | USDCHF 1.00724 | GBPUSD 1.22186 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06589 | 1.0645
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.977 | 114.763
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22218 | 1.21978
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00815 | 1.00707
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75716 | 0.75501
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34573 | 1.3440
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69287 | 0.69104
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07346 | 1.07314
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87328 | 0.87194
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.452 | 122.289
For Today
- EUR: A minor slip lower from the opening saw the market test the 1.0645 levels before moving into the Tokyo session testing around the 1.0658 areas and that I’m afraid was the range for the day with the market trading around the 1.0655 areas through to the grey hours. Topside offers through the 1.0700 levels, a push through the 1.0720 areas will likely see weak stops appearing with congestion through to the 1.0760 areas those stops are likely to be absorbed in the mix and then stronger offers on a move towards the 1.0800-20 areas. Downside bids light through the 1.0600 level but congestive with those bids continuing through to the 1.0550 areas with a little mix of stops, less congestion below the 1.0540 areas however, the 1.0520-00 area will likely find stronger support.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2220 areas the market slipped lower through to the Tokyo session with the market touching the 1.2200 areas and then remaining in a tight 1.2200-10 range through to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.2250 areas with the market opening a little on a move through the area, stronger offers start appearing on a move through the level with 1.2300 likely to hold offers to slow the market however, limited interest until Article 50 and or FOMC later in the week, these are likely reasons for the limited moves so far, a push through the 1.2300 is likely to see light offers through 1.2350 areas and stronger offers above 1.2400 areas. Downside bids into the 1.2200 areas likely to be weak and the market is likely to see congestion through to the 1.2150 areas and stronger bids for the moment, even through that support the market is likely to continue to see limited buying with 1.2100 likely to see some bids but a potential test to the years lows.
- JPY: An early attempt to test towards the 115.00 areas was quickly over with and the market pushed lower into the Tokyo open and slipping below the 114.80 areas in limited selling through the session, the market recovered towards the opening 114.90 areas but the day was slow. Topside offers likely to be weak through the 115.00 areas, with congestion through the level and possible light selling driven by recent highs, a test of the 115.50 areas could see weak stops and the market opening to the lightly congested 116.00 levels with possible stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 114.50 areas with limited bids in the area and possible test to the 114.00 and stronger bids for the moment.
- AUD: Drifting from the opening around the 0.7570 levels the market eased into the Tokyo session with the release of the NAB business number showing a dip and the Oz dropped quickly back to the 0.7550 areas before finding some bids and the market moving slowly higher to range around the 0.7560 levels in a tight range. Topside offers around the 0.7600 areas and again is stuck in a tight range a push through the 0.7620 areas will see limited offers into the 0.7640-60 areas and stronger levels into and through the 77 cent level. Downside bids light into the 0.7550-40 area with the bids likely to increase as the market dips into the 0.7530 level and down to 75 cent, a push through the 0.7480 areas could see weak stops appearing and stronger stops possibly on a push through the 0.7440 level.
Overnight News
CNY:
China’s Jan.-February Fixed-Asset Investment Rises 8.9% Y/y
China Jan.-Feb. Industrial Output Rises 6.3%; Est. 6.2%
China to Counter Thaad With Anti-Radar Equipment: SCMP
PBOC Official Sees Slower Home Mortgage Growth: Sec. Journal
GBP:
U.K. Parliament Gives Theresa May Permission to Start Brexit
U.K. Needs to Pass at Least 7 Bills to Prepare for Brexit: Times
U.K. Lords Vote to Drop Brexit Amendment on EU Citizens’ Rights
USD:
U.S. to Urge G-20 Nations to Abide by FX Pact, Treasury Says
JPY/USD:
Aso Says Contents of Trump’s Statements Changing After Election
JPY:
Japan’s Suga Stands Behind Defense Minister on School Links
AUD:
RBA’s Bullock: Will Do More on Macroprudential Policy If Needed
Australia Feb. Business Confidence Falls 3 Pts M/m to 7
EUR:
Valls Said Planning to Endorse Macron: Le Parisien
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Feb A 7 | P 10
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production YTD Y/Y Feb A 6.30% | C 6.10% | P 6.00%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Feb A 8.90% | C 8.30% | P 8.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales YTD Y/Y Feb A 9.50% | C 10.60% | P 10.40%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Feb (F) C 0.60% | P 0.60%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Feb (F) C 2.20% | P 2.20%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jan C 1.20% | P -1.60%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Mar C 12 | P 10.4
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Mar C 78 | P 76.4
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Mar P 19.3
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Feb C 0.10% | P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Feb P 1.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Feb P 1.20%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening a little higher from Friday the market pushed through to the Tokyo session pressing the 1.0690 levels and holding for a few hours between that level and the opening 1.0680, the market eventually broke and steadily testing the 1.0700 levels and although the market did test through the move into the grey hours saw the market moving from just below the 1.0700 areas to test the 1.0715 areas before early London dropped quickly lower into the London session, a slightly better Trade balance for Germany saw the highs however, the strong selling saw the market pushing back to the 1.0665 areas with a ranging market into the NYK session, the market extended the lows and was never able to push back to the opening levels with the late period drifting off to finish just off the 1.0650 areas.
- GBP: A quiet opening and the market ranged deep into the Tokyo session holding the 1.2160-70 areas for the most part before starting a steady rise off the 1.2155 level to test into the grey hours up against the 1.2190 level, the buying continued in early London with the market testing to the 1.2240 levels before London sold it back to the figure area again, numbers slightly weaker than expected, the selling was limited and the market then recovered into the NYK session opening, the market slowly rose through the session and peaked at the 1.2250 areas and then slowly drifted to the close on a rather limited day volume wise.
- JPY: The USDJPY had a slow range throughout the day with the market opening a little lower around the 114.70 areas and testing lightly through the 114.90 level several times in the Tokyo session, the market then started to drift as it moved towards the grey hours, the market dropped below the opening levels and the market based along the 114.50 areas through into the London session before moving through to push lightly to the 114.80 and so the range was set until the run to the close with a slow climb to the 114.90 level.
- AUD: Drifting from the opening around the 0.7545 levels and slipping back to the 0.7535 level before finding support into the Tokyo session and a steady rise through to the 0.7575 level only to range tightly through to the grey hours, early buyers pushed the market to the 0.7590 but was unable to push through the 76 cent areas and the market drifted through to the NYK session, NYK had the same run but the market again tailed above the 0.7590 areas and drifted to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q1 A 1.1 | C 8.4 | P 7.5
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Jan A 0.50% | C -1.00% | P 0.40% | R 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Jan A 18.5B | C 18.0B | P 18.4B | R 18.3B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jan A -0.40% | C -0.50% | P 1.10% | R 0.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Jan A 3.20% | C 3.20% | P 4.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Jan A -0.90% | C -0.70% | P 2.10% | R 2.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan A 2.70% | C 2.90% | P 4.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Jan A -0.40% | C -0.40% | P 1.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jan A -10.8B | C -11.1B | P -10.9B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Feb A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.70% | R 0.80%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Feb A 15.3K | C -15.5K | P 48.3K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb A 6.60% | C 6.80% | P 6.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Feb A 235K | C 190K | P 227K | R 238K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb A 4.70% | C 4.70% | P 4.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
Good Luck,
Andy
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