Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.33 | EURUSD 1.0799 | AUDUSD 0.7624 | NZDUSD 0.70286 | USDCAD 1.3379 | USDCHF 0.99146 | GBPUSD 1.2474 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am London time

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.08507 | 1.08302

USDJPY                 110.986 | 110.257

GBPUSD               1.25344 | 1.2492

AUDUSD              0.76369 | 0.76152

USDCHF               0.98931 | 0.9876

USDCAD               1.33571 | 1.3323

NZDUSD               0.70505 | 0.70335

EURGBP               0.86741 | 0.86519

EURCHF                1.07211 | 1.07106

EURJPY                 120.113 | 119.606

For today

• EUR: With the Trump administration coming under a microscope on Russian election interference and failure of the Health care bill the USD found itself under pressure from the opening with the market opening around 30 pips higher and steadily rising to trade in the 1.0840-50 areas through to the grey hours, Topside offers are likely to continue through to the 1.0860 areas with some limited congestion from there into the 1.0900 levels and through to the 1.0950 area before the market starts to thin out until the 1.1000 areas where stronger offers are likely to appear albeit sentimental more than technical, downside bids light through the 1.0800 areas and a little stronger through the 1.0750 but still not likely to be too large, a test of the 1.0720 areas will likely see stronger bids appearing with stronger stops on a push through the 1.0680 areas.
• GBP: Opening a little higher after the markets dip on the close on Friday the market moved quickly through to the 1.2520 levels into the Tokyo opening as early buyers moved in to sell the USD across the board, ranging for a few hours around the 1.2510-20 areas the move towards the grey hours saw the market slowly pushing through to range around the 1.2530 levels. Likely to be congestive to the topside with the current offers likely to run to the 1.2550 areas before stops start to appear and the market then opening up to the 1.2600 areas and stronger offers start to appear again. Downside bids through to the 1.2400 areas and a break here will likely see weak stops appearing and the market opening to further bids into the 1.2350 areas and possibly a little stronger with stops through the level.
• JPY: The open saw the market 30 pips lower and the market then going into a steady decline from the opening around the 111.00 areas, testing eventually to the 110.30 areas and holding in a tight range around the area through to the grey hours, Bids through to the 110.00 areas likely to be fairly strong with a push through the 110.00 area likely to see quick stops appearing and the market opening for a deeper move with the 1.0900 areas likely to be token bids around the sentimental levels and nothing likely to be special until the market approaches the 1.0800 areas, saying that though one suspects that the importer bids will be around to take anything that they believe to be a good price. Topside offers likely to be reasonably weak through the 111.00 areas with stronger offers not likely until the market pushes through to the 112.00 areas and possibly a larger range than one could expect for the day.
• AUD: Limited range with the opening around the 0.7635 areas the market held the levels through into the Tokyo session before the USDJPY selling impacted the AUDJPY cross and the market saw the Oz falling back to the 0.7615 areas before recovering the opening levels on the move into the grey hours. Downside bids into the 76 cent level with limited weak stops through the level and into congestive bids on the 75 cent level and possibly very little movement available, Topside is a little more open with some congestive offers on any move through towards the 77 cent level and the market likely to see stronger offers on any push through the level with the market needing to break 0.7750 to open up any strong movement higher however, even through the level the 0.7775 areas will likely see some offers appearing with congestion through to the 0.7840-60 areas.

Overnight News                                                                  

JPY:

Abe Cabinet Approval Wobbles Amid School Scandal: Media Polls

One BOJ Member: Sees Considerable Time Before Any Policy Change

Japan Poll Shows 40% Want Akie to Testify on Land Deal: TV Asahi

EUR:

Merkel Party’s Win Spells Reality Check for Election Challenger

Fillon Says Germany Reacting Too Slowly to U.S. Politics: Funke

CNY:

China May Allow Foreign Listings Via Shanghai FTZ: Sec. News

CNY: China Industrial Profit Rises With Fast Coal, Steel Price Gains

NZD/CNY:

N.Z.’s English Says China FTA Upgrade Talks to Begin Next Month

USD/RUB:

U.S. ‘Strongly Condemns’ Detention of Russian Protesters: State

USD:

Two More Fed Rate Hikes ‘Reasonable’: Former Fed Atlanta Head

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         BoJ Summary of Opinions at March 15-16 Meeting

JPY         Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb A 0.80% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%

08:00     EUR        Eurozone M3 Y/Y Feb C 4.90% | P 4.90%

08:00     EUR        German IFO – Business Climate Mar C 111.1 | P 111

08:00     EUR        German IFO – Expectations Mar C 104.3 | P 104

08:00     EUR        German IFO – Current Assessment Mar C 118.3 | P 118.4

Weekend News

USD:

GOP Eyes Tax Overhaul — And Lessons From Health-Care Failure
McCain: Wants to See Trump Address Russia Election Interference
Senator McCain Says Russians Are Trying to Destroy Democracy
Virginia Judge Tees Up Travel Ban Argument for Top Court
Trump Made ‘Good Faith’ Effort to Fix Travel Ban, U.S. Argues
CNY:

PBOC’s Zhou Eyes G20 Hamburg Summit For Free Trade Clarity
China Vice Premier Plugs Globalization in Speech to Boao Forum
PBOC’s Zhou Says Monetary Policy Can’t Cure Every Illness
China Defaults Are Stabilizing, PBOC Chief Economist Ma Says
China Regulator Optimistic A-Shares Will Be in MSCI This Year
EUR:

Le Pen Says Euro Exit Would Be Final Step in EU Talks: Parisien
EU Leaders Pledge Unity Days Away From U.K. Exit Trigger
Merkel Says EU’s Post-Brexit Budget Gap Should Be Filled Jointly
Brexit a Challenge for EU 2021-2028 Budget, Oettinger Tells Sole
Merkel Sees Europe Cooperating More Closely on Defence
Italy in Talks With EU Over 2018 Deficit Flexibility: La Stampa
French Candidate Macron Wins Backing of 10 UDI Senators: JDD
GBP:

U.K.’s May to Give Details of Law Changes for Brexit: Telegraph
TRY:

Erdogan Says Turkey Could Hold Referendum on Its EU Bid: AA
AUD:

Turnbull Government Committed to Company Tax Plan: Australian
JPY:

Japan Cabinet Approval Rating Falls to 52%, Kyodo Reports
JPY/TWD:

Japan Vice Minister to Visit Taiwan 1st Time in 45 Years: Asahi
HKD:

China-Backed Carrie Lam Elected as Hong Kong Chief Executive
OIL:

OPEC Chief Sees Market Rebalance in Second Half of 2017
Russia’s Novak Says Ministers Raised Issue of Extending Cuts
CHF:

Majority of Swiss Support Immigration Bill: Poll in NZZamS
NZD:

N.Z. Ruling National Party Has 46% Support in One News Poll

 

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: Generally a tight range with the Asian session seeing selling into the Tokyo session having opening around the 1.0785 areas, dipping down to the 1.0760 levels for the move through to the London session holding below 1.0770 areas, London were quick buyers and the PMI numbers across Europe showed improvement and the market pushed quickly through the 1.0780 areas and triggered weak stops on a push at the 1.0810 areas, the market then ranged through the session trading around the 1.0800 levels with limited volume through to the close with the high extended to just below the 1.0820 level before finishing just below the 1.0800 areas
• GBP: Having opened around the 1.2520 levels the market slipped lower as the market moved into the Tokyo session trading down through the 1.2500 areas before meeting light support as the market moved through the 1.2490 levels and steadily moving down to the 1.2475 levels into the grey hours, Early London were buyers from the grey hours with the market edging up through the 1.2500 levels and that 1.2475-1.2505 range defined the rest of the trading through the day with no real strong news through the day as the Brexit talk and the recent terrorist attack took front stage but in a muted tone.
• JPY: USDJPY headed higher from the opening in Tokyo moving off the early lows around the 110.90 levels to test through to the 111.35 levels, the market ranged a little higher as the market calmed and struggled through the Asian session testing towards the 111.50 levels and then slowly slipping lower as the market moved into the London session to hold through to the NYK session around the 111.00 areas, the end of the London session saw the USDJPY pushing back through the opening levels and slipping back to the 110.65 areas before finding some light profit taking moving in and the market quickly rising to the 111.30 closing area.
• AUD: Early gains were quickly wiped out as the market dropped back into the Tokyo session, the Oz managed to hit the 0.7640 areas however, as the USDJPY selling took its toll and the AUDJPY sellers pushed against the early highs the Oz gave way and the market pushed quickly through the 0.7630 levels and weak stops saw the market trading around the 0.7615 area through to the London session, buyers into the London session saw a limited rise before dipping back to the 0.7610 areas again and then ranging into the NYK session testing the 76 cent level before rising slowly through the balance of the session to the opening areas.

Yesterday’s premiership results

NZD       Trade Balance (NZD) Feb A -18M | C 160M | P -285M | R -257M

NZD       Exports (New Zealand dollars) Feb A 4.01B | C 4.20B | P 3.91B

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Mar (P) A 52.6 | C 53.5 | P 53.3

EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Mar (P) A 53.4 | C 52.4 | P 52.2

EUR        France Services PMI Mar (P) A 58.5 | C 56.1 | P 56.4

EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar (P) A 58.3 | C 56.5 | P 56.8

EUR        Germany Services PMI Mar (P) A 55.6 | C 54.5 | P 54.4

EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar (P) A 56.2 | C 55.3 | P 55.4

EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Mar (P) A 56.5 | C 55.3 | P 55.5

GBP       BBA Mortgage Approvals Feb A 42.6K | C 44.9K | P 44.7K | R 44.1K

CAD       CPI M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.90%

CAD       CPI Y/Y Feb A 2.00% | C 2.10% | P 2.10%

CAD       CPI Core – Common Y/Y Feb A 1.90% | P 1.30%

CAD       CPI Core – Median Y/Y Feb A 1.90% | P 1.90%

CAD       CPI Core – Trim Y/Y Feb A 1.60% | P 1.70%

USD       Durable Goods Orders Feb (P) A 1.70% | C 1.20% | P 2.00%

USD       Durables Ex Transportation Feb (P) A 0.50% | C 0.70% | P 0.00%

Stay lucky

Andy

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.