Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.043 | EURUSD 1.07658 | AUDUSD 0.76692 | NZDUSD 0.7034 | USDCAD 1.33268 | USDCHF 0.99643 | GBPUSD 1.2434 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07687 | 1.07416
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.427 | 111.019
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24505 | 1.24325
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99813 | 0.99586
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76750 | 0.76555
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33453 | 1.33294
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70363 | 0.7019
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.07260 | 1.07196
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86553 | 0.86367
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 119.844 | 119.517
For Today
- EUR: Weaker overall with the market drifting once the market moved into the Tokyo session dipping from above the 1.0765 levels to trade slowly through to the 1.0740 areas for the second time in 24hrs, the market recovered a little to above the 1.0750 level as the market moved towards the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.0780 levels and continuing through to the 1.0820 areas with some weak stops likely through the level and limited resistance until the 1.0850-60 areas, and a strong push through the level will see the 1.0900 areas again under pressure with a push through opening up a new range with 1.1000 possibly key to any further gains. Downside bids light through to the 1.0710 level where some support appears a push through this level will open the market to only limited potential as congestive bids into the 1.0660-40 areas with further bids likely to move in quickly if the market pushes towards the 1.0600 areas.
- GBP: Cable did very little with the market ranging around the 1.2440 levels having pushed higher from the 1.0735 areas, the market made a couple of attempts to push through the 1.2450 areas however, they were half hearted with little strength in the moves with the market holding just below the highs into the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.2480-1.2500 levels likely to be weak with very little in the way of stops on a move through the level however, once the market pushes into the 1.2550 level with possibly stronger offers then on to the 1.2600 areas with likelihood of decent stops on a strong move through the level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2400 areas with bids likely to continue through the level and weak stops possibly through the 1.2380 areas for a move back to 1.2350 and possibly stronger bids in the area.
- JPY: Opening around the 111.00 areas the market moved through into Tokyo with limited movement, however, eventually the market started a quiet rise through to the 111.40 levels with more talk of USD interest rate rises keeping the subject bubbling however, the market was unable to capitalize on the movement and after a few hours of holding in the area the market started a slow slip back into the 111.20’s for the move into the grey hour. Bids to the downside into the 110.80-50 levels with possibly stronger bids likely to appear as the market moves towards the 110.20 levels with strong stops through the 110.00 areas and opening the market to a deeper move with sentimental levels providing limited support.
- AUD: A tight range for the Oz with concerns over the property bubble with some linking money laundering being part of the problem, the market made early gains to the 0.7675 areas before drifting off from the highs to test towards the 0.7655 level and holding around the 0.7665 areas through to the grey hour, limited movement continues with the range bound Oz, Topside offers into the 77 cent level and likely to continue to increase as the market moves through the area and towards the 0.7750 areas with weak stops before offers move in around the 0.7770-0.7800 levels with possible stops again but again congestion through to the 0.7840 levels is likely to keep a lid on any moves. Downside bids into the 76 cent level and possibly weaker for the time being and weak stops on a move through however, the 75 cent handle is likely to see stronger bids appearing the lower the market moves and any attempt at 75 cent is likely to run into strong bids.
Overnight News
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Mar C 105.8 | P 107.2
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Mar C 0.87 | P 0.82
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Mar C 108.3 | P 108
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar C 1.4 | P 1.3
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Mar C 14 | P 13.8
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar (F) C -5 | P -5
12:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Mar (P) C 0.40% | P 0.60%
12:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Mar (P) C 1.80% | P 2.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Annualized Q4 (T) C 2.00% | P 1.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q4 (T) C 2.00% | P 2.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims Mar 25 C 245K | P 261K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Feb C 0.30% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Feb C 0.80% | P 1.70%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -150B
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet Asian session saw the Euro make its highs for the day with the market unable to push too far through the 1.0820 areas having opened just below the level, the market moved around in the 1.0810-20 areas for the most part before starting a steady decline once the London session started, London pushed the market to the 1.0780 areas before holding steady through to the NYK session and the notification of Article 50 was delivered and ECB officials nervous about changing policy before June, the market reacted unfavourably to the differing news however, given that both are probably linked the market dropped quickly triggering some weak stops to touch the 1.0740 areas before regaining its composure and ranging to the close in a tightening range until the final hour and a push through to the 1.0770 areas.
- GBP: A nervous Asian session saw the market make early highs above the 1.2460 levels before moving into the Tokyo session where the sellers moved in, the market dropped back in the first hour to push through the 1.2400 levels and bounced of the 1.2380 to recover to the 1.2410 areas for a quiet remainder of the session holding around the level, grey hours selling initially sent the market to sub 1.2400 again however, once the London session opened the market started a steady rise into the Article 50 release and the high of the day was seen through the 1.2470 areas before dropping back to range widely into the NYK close holding the 1.2440 areas and less dramatic than some would have expected.
- JPY: USDJPY faced a quiet Asian session with End of year dealing all but finished with and the market drifting around the 111.15 levels through to London, the market did attempt the Topside through the mid Tokyo session attempting to push beyond the 111.30 levels however, after a couple of attempts the market drifted into the London session slipping lower to test the figure levels and a quiet range around the level into the NYK session, limited reaction to the various bits of news from the opening saw the lows set around the 110.70 areas and a gradual rise to the close ranging around the 111.00 level.
- AUD: The Asian session again saw the 0.7630 levels holding for the day with the market running along the line through into the Tokyo session, some AUDJPY buying through the early part of the session helped with a quick rally to above the 0.7650 levels and then a quiet run to the London session, early London were quiet buyers and the market pushed through to the 0.7665 areas into the mid-morning before ranging through into the NYK session holding around the 0.7655 areas, light selling from the opening in NYK saw a limited reaction before moving back into the 0.7660 areas to range till late in the session and a little USD weakness saw the Oz make fresh highs into the last hour of trading for the day testing the 0.7675 level and holding quietly just off those highs.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Feb A 0.10% | C 0.70% | P 1.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Feb A 0.70% | C 0.40% | P 0.90%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Feb A 1.50 | P 1.43
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Feb A 68.3K | C 69.5K | P 69.9K | 69.1K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M Feb A -0.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Feb A 5.50% | C 2.00% | P -2.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 0.9M | C 1.2M | P 5.0M
Good Luck,
Andy
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