Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 1.06546 | EURUSD 111.401 | AUDUSD 0.76290 | NZDUSD 0.7006 | USDCAD 1.33191 | USDCHF 1.0029 | GBPUSD 1.25539 |
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LMAX Ranges 6am London time
Highs   Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06810 | 1.06616
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.496 | 111.128
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25557 | 1.25321
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76403 | 0.76008
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00252 | 1.00088
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33262 | 1.33085
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70152 | 0.70018
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85208 | 0.84955
EURCHF Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06950 | 1.06866
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 118.954 | 118.661
For today
- EUR: Euro’s opened a little higher as Trump again criticises Chinese currency protectionism and having opened around the 1.0665 levels and steadily climbing through the session to test the 1.0680 areas before moving into the grey hour holding around the level, with Brexit commentary no beginning to turn a little nasty the market could be heading into some turmoil over the coming months, Topside offers into the 1.0700 levels are likely to continue through to the 1.0720 areas with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.0750 areas with possible weakness until the market approaches the 1.0800 areas and the stronger levels appear. Downside bids light through to the 1.0600 levels with limited congestion and the market strengthening on a move through the lows, stronger bids are likely to give way to congestive bids through to the 1.0550 areas and possibly the base line of 1.0500 areas.
- GBP: A very quiet session for the Cable through the Asian session with the market opening around the 1.2550 levels and drifting to hold around the 1.2540 area through to the grey hours, some limited congestion in the current areas with stronger levels on a move to the 1.2600 areas with those offers likely to continue through to the 1.2630 areas before any stops are likely to appear, downside bids light through the 1.2450 areas with limited congestion for the moment with better bids likely to appear on a move through to 1.2400 and possibly stronger congestion having built in the area, with bids into the 1.2350 likely to be reasonably strong and stops appearing on the move through the level.
- JPY: Reasonably tight through the Asian session with the market initially testing to the 111.50 areas before dropping off into the Tokyo session and eventually slipping through to make the lows, around the 111.15 areas before recovering to the opening levels and holding for the most part in the 111.30-40 areas. Topside offers into the 111.80 areas with stronger offers beyond that through to the 112.20 levels, stops through that level is likely and the market open to the weak offers through 112.50 level and stronger offers through the 113.00 levels. Downside bids into the 111.00 are congestive with the market likely to see stronger bids on a move through the 110.50 levels with bids increasing into the 110.00 levels
- AUD: A steady opening with the market moving through into the Tokyo session holding the 0.7630 areas and testing to the 0.7640 levels, a weaker retail sales number saw the market drop back quickly to the 0.7620 levels and then steadily through to the 0.7600 areas where the market holds on a move through to the grey hours. Topside offers light through to the 0.7660 level with weak stops likely but not particularly strong, a move through the area will see stronger offers moving in through to the 77 cent levels and strong congestion from that point to the key 0.7750 areas. Downside bids into the 76 cent level and possibly decent bids with congestion through the level and into the 0.7550 areas and stronger bids likely into the 0.7530-00 areas.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
JPY:
Japan March Large Manufacturer Tankan Rises to 12; Est. 14
Nikkei Japan March Manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 53.3 in Feb.
JPY/CNY:
Japan, China to Mull Abe-Xi Talks at Meeting This Week: Kyodo
USD:
Trump Tells FT U.S. Would Act Alone on N. Korean Nuke Threat
GBP:
U.K. Finance Chiefs’ Optimism Highest Since 2015, Deloitte Says
EUR/GBP:
Brexit Is ‘No Mission Impossible for Us,’ Dombret Tells Welt
AUD:
Australia Feb. Retail Sales Decline 0.1% M/M; Est. 0.3% Gain
Australia March Manufacturing Index Falls 1.8 Pts M/m to 57.5
Australia March Melbourne Inst. Inflation Gauge Rises 0.1% M/m
Australian Energy Price Volatility Manageable, Moody’s Says
NZD:
N.Z. Treasury Expects Annual Inflation Was Near 2% in 1Q
CNY:
Chinese Banks Exposed to Latent Asset Pressure, Moody’s Says
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q1 A 12 | C 14 | P 10
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook Q1 A 11 | C 13 | P 8
JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 A 20 | C 19 | P 18
JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 A 16 | C 19 | P 16
JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1 A 0.60% | C -0.30% | P 5.50%
JPY Tankan Small Manufacturing Index Q1 A 5 | C 3 | P 1
JPY Tankan Small Manufacturing Outlook Q1 A 0 | C 1 | P -4
JPY Tankan Small Non- Manufacturing Index Q1 A 4 | C 2 | P 2
JPY Tankan Small Non- Manufacturing Outlook Q1 A -1 | C -1 | P -2
JPY PMI Manufacturing Mar (F) A 52.4 | C 52.6 | P 52.6
AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Mar A 0.10% | P -0.30%
AUD Retail Sales M/M Feb A -0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
AUD Building Approvals M/M Feb A 8.30% | C -1.50% | P 1.80%
07:15 Â Â Â Â CHF Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Feb C -0.80% | P -1.40%
07:30 Â Â Â Â CHF Â Â Â Â Â Â Â SVME PMI Mar C 58 | P 57.8
07:45 Â Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Mar C 55.1 | P 55
07:50 Â Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Mar (F) C 53.4 | P 53.4
07:55 Â Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar (F) C 58.3 | P 58.3
08:00 Â Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar (F) C 56.2 | P 56.2
08:30 Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Mar C 55 | P 54.6
09:00 Â Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Feb C 0.10% | P 0.70%
09:00 Â Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Feb C 4.30% | P 3.50%
09:00 Â Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb C 9.50% | P 9.60%
14:00 Â Â Â Â USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Mar C 57.1 | P 57.7
14:00 Â Â Â Â USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Mar C 66 | P 68
14:00 Â Â Â Â USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Feb C 1.00% | P -1.00%
Weekend News
CNY:
PBOC Raises Interest Rates on Standing Lending Facility Loans
China Commerce Ministry Comments on U.S. Trade Executive Orders
Caixin China March Manufacturing PMI 51.2; Est. 51.7
China to Keep Prudent, Neutral Monetary Policy, PBOC Says
Chinese Finance Minister Says Instability, Uncertainty Increased
PBOC Conducted 497b Yuan MLF Operations in March
ZAR:
Zuma Discontent Builds in South Africa’s ANC amid Calls to Quit
South Africa’s Gigaba to Push Radical Economic Transformation
South Africa’s Chief Electoral Officer Steps Down: Sowetan
HKD:
HKMA Sends Banks Letters Raising Concern Over Mortgages: Daily
USD:
U.S. Seeks Quick Action to Unblock Trump Immigration Order
All the President’s Millionaires: Trump Aides Unveil Assets
Schiff Says Too Early to Debate Flynn Immunity for Testimony
EUR:
Oettinger Says EU-27 States to Pay More After Brexit: Spiegel
Tsipras: Fiscal Measures Will Be Implemented After Debt Relief
GBP:
U.K. Seeks to Kill Foreign Bank Rule as Brexit Snare Looms
AUD:
Australia’s Turnbull Says Business Tax Cut to Stimulate Growth
AUD: Morrison May Try another Australian Company Tax Push Before Poll
GBP/INR:
Hammond and Carney Visit India to Promote Post-Brexit Vision
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro with early gains lost late into the session, opening around the 1.0680 areas the market ranged quietly through the Asian session with the market pushing to the 1.0688 areas and dipping through to the grey hours holding the 1.0670 level before early London moved in, the market traded towards the 1.0700 levels before the release of European data saw the market quickly backing off from the highs, Brexit news now sees a play from Europe to take over Gibraltar against the wishes of both the UK and Gibraltar itself, of course this would open up other fractures for the UK if allowed so while the market ranged in the 1.0675-1.0700 areas through the session the last hour saw the market drop back to make lows as a reasonably strong response from the UK was seen with the Euro dropping back to the 1.0650 levels.
- GBP: Cable rose through the Asian session moving from the opening around the 1.2460 levels and testing through the 1.2500 areas and ranging through the 1.2480-1.2500 levels to the grey hours, early selling into the London session saw the market dipping back to trade through the 1.2440 levels with a dip for the 4th qtr balanced by slightly better other numbers, the move through to the NYK session saw the market again testing the 1.2500 levels and as the market moved through to the end of London the market saw Cable moving quickly to the 1.2550 levels as Brexit issues started to rock the boat. The market ran out keeping in touch with the 1.2550 levels and tested on the close just through the level.
- JPY: Early gains through the Tokyo session with the market opening around the 111.90 levels and slipping initially to the 111.70 areas, with CPI dipping for the year to date the market in USDJPY moved quickly above the 112.00 levels and held above the area through to the London session testing to the 112.20 areas but unable to move through the level, London were steady sellers back to the opening levels and the market then remained in a reasonably tight range through to NYK generally holding around the 111.90 areas, NYK saw the market falling back as the US numbers generally came in line with expectations and the USDJPY moved lower in small waves to test the 111.50 areas before drifting through the levels into the London close, the market then slipped lower through the end of the session testing to the 111.30 areas and drifting to a close around the 111.40 areas.
- AUD: A very quiet day overall with the market holding in a very tight range through the Asian session basing off the 0.7640 levels and testing the 0.7655 areas, the move into the London session saw the market testing to the 0.7660 levels before dropping back off again 0.7635 and while the range was a little wider the market traded around the 0.7640 areas with the low hitting into the 0.7620 areas and eventually settled around that level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Feb A 14.00% | C 0.80% | P 201%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Mar A -6 | C -7 | P -6
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb A 2.80% | C 3.00% | P 3.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y Feb A -3.80% | C -1.60% | P -1.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Feb A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar A -0.40% | C -0.20% | P -0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Feb (P) A 2.00% | C 1.20% | P -0.40%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NBNZ Business Confidence Mar A 11.3 | P 16.6
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Mar A 51.8 | C 51.7 | P 51.6
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Mar A 55.1 | P 54.2
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Feb A -2.60% | C -1.20% | P 12.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M Feb A 1.80% | C 0.70% | P -0.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nationwide House Prices M/M Mar A -0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Mar A -30K | C -10K | P -14K | R -17K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate Mar A 5.80% | C 5.90% | P 5.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (GBP) Q4 A -12.1B | C -16.0B | P -25.5B | R 25.7B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) A 0.60% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Jan A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Total Business Investment Q/Q Q4 (F) A -0.90% | C -1.00% | P -1.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar A 1.50% | C 1.80% | P 2.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Mar (A) A 0.70% | C 0.80% | P 0.90%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Jan A 0.60% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Feb A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Feb A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Feb A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Feb A 2.10% | C 2.10% | P 1.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Feb A 1.80% | C 1.70% | P 1.70%Â | R 1.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Mar A 57.7 | C 57 | P 57.4
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Mar (F) A 96.9 | C 97.6 | P 97.6
Stay lucky
Andy
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