Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.076 | EURUSD 1.05904 | AUDUSD 0.75016 | NZDUSD 0.69356 | USDCAD 1.34076 | USDCHF 1.00926 | GBPUSD 1.2373 |
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LMAX Ranges 6am London time
Highs   Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.05870 | 1.05704
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.586 | 111.123
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23869 | 1.23658
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75087 | 0.74783
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01049 | 1.00898
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34268 | 1.34009
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69434 | 0.6922
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85528 | 0.85413
EURCHF Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06860 | 1.06794
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 118.006 | 117.615
For today
- EUR: A quiet range through the Asian session, opening around the 1.0590 levels the market drifted through to the 1.0580 areas and traded in a tight range from the Tokyo opening through to the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 1.0660 levels with increasing offers as the market moves through the 1.0680 levels and into the 1.0700 area, a push through the 1.0720-30 areas the market is likely to see some weak stops and congestion through to the 1.0760 levels before stronger offers into 1.0800. Downside bids light from current levels with stronger bids likely to increase into the 1.0550 areas and increasing as the market moves through to the 1.0520 levels, if the market breaks through the 1.0500 areas then there is a possibility of stronger stops on a move through the level with the 1.0400-1.0350 areas becoming vulnerable.
- GBP: Cable drifted through the session opening just above the 1.2380 level to test through the 1.2370 level before returning to the opening levels to hold through the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 1.2470 areas with limited offers appearing through to the 1.2500 levels with stronger offers lightly through the level, offers are likely to continue through the 1.2550 areas and then stronger offers through to the 1.2600. Downside bids light through to the 1.2350 areas with stronger congestion through that level with further bids likely through to the 1.2300 areas before weakness is likely to appear albeit limited.
- JPY: USDJPY recovered some of last week’s losses as the market moved from the opening 111.00 areas to test through the 111.50 area and hold through to the grey hours just below the level. Topside offers into the 111.80 areas are likely to increase into the 112.00 level with possible weak stops on a move through the 112.20 areas and opening the market for only a small push before the offers again return. Downside bids light through the 111.00 areas and the market opens for further movement towards the 110.00 levels where strong bids are likely to remain, a move through the level will likely see stronger stops appearing for a deeper move.
- AUD: The Oz opened weaker with the market quickly filling the gap on a move from the 0.7495 areas to test towards the 0.7510 before weakness reappeared and forcing the market back to the 0.7480 areas and holding through to the grey hour, Downside bids are likely to become lighter on a move through the current lows with a push through the 0.7450 areas and stops likely on a move to the 74 cent areas. Topside offers likely through the 75 cent with weak stops on a push beyond the 0.7520 areas and a return to the highly exciting ranges the market has seen over the past few months.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD/CNY:
Trump-Xi summit sets up the framework for comprehensive dialogue
Metting positive and fruitful Chinas Xinhua says
AUD:
National Australia Bank raises rates for the 5th time in the last few weeks.
USD:
Fed’s Bullard: states rate doesn’t have to be raised all that much
Jobs report consistent with 2% growth
Expects inflation to remain where it is
Jobs growth of around 100,000 consistent with trends
EUR:
Melenchon gains in French race as poll sees Macron-Le Pen tie
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Feb A 2.21T | C 1.79T | P 1.26T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Feb A -0.50% | C 0.00% | P 0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current Mar A | C 49.8 | P 48.6
08:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Apr C 21 | P 20.7
12:15Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Mar C 215.5K | P 210.2K
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Market Conditions Index Change Mar P 1.3
Weekend News
EUR:
Greece to cut corporate tax in 2020 if fiscal targets exceeded
Greece’s lenders to send experts to Athens to approve reforms, unlock funds
Swedish terror attack sees 4 dead with a number injured
Norway security forces discovered several devices in Oslo late Saturday
ECB’s Mersch says ultra-easy monetary policy can’t continue forever
USD/RUB:
Syria air base attack crosses red line said allies supporting Syria
GBP/RUB:
Foreign secretary cancelled the upcoming visit to Russia
RUB/GBP:
Russia criticises UK decision to cancel Johnson visit to Moscow
USD/CNY:
Chinese state media cheer Xi-Trump meeting, say confrontation not inevitable
USD/JPY:
In talks to prevent China acquiring Westinghouse US official
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: While the ranges were particularly tight for some of the majors and the Euro in particular remained limited for the most part through Asia, the market opening around the 1.0640 and held around those levels through to the news that the US had fired a significant amount of missiles at Syrian targets connected to the chemical weapons attack, Euros rose to the 1.0660 levels before dropping back again to trade around the opening levels through to the grey hour, London were limited sellers as the saw better German numbers overall however, the drag of the GBP saw the market pulled lower and trading through to the 1.0630 into the NYK session, NFP disappointed with a much lower number than expected and a downward revision of the previous month, initially the Euro rallied to the 1.0665 areas before the market dropped back to test through to the 1.0610 as the Unemployment rate came in 0.20% lower, the market held for a period before the market started to decline again with the London closed with the market testing gradually through the 1.0600 areas and finding support into the 1.0580 areas to finish just below the 1.0600 level.
- GBP: Cable held quietly through the Asian session with the market opening around the 1.2470 levels and barely pushing above that level with a limited attempt to the 1.2480 levels into the London opening, the market then drifted a little into the UK numbers with the IP and MP numbers showing a deterioration and the Cable dropped quickly through to the 1.2430 levels, the market drifted through to the NYK session holding the 1.2410 areas before the release of the NFP with a similar reaction as the Euro, the Cable peaked to the 1.2450 before dropping quickly back to trigger weak stops to trade around the 1.2400 levels and eventually pushing through to the 1.2370 areas to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 110.80 levels the market and pushed gradually to the 111.00 levels before the release of the information on the US strike, the market dropped quickly with plenty of volume going through as the market pushed to the 110.10 levels before starting a slow and steady climb through into the London session holding the 110.50 areas, the market continued recovering through to the NYK session seeing the opening there, around the 110.70 levels, the release of the NFP saw the market again test the lows before recovering and pushing close to the 111.00 levels, the move through to the close saw the market rush through the topside to test to the 111.30 level before drifting to the 111.10 areas into the close.
- AUD: The Oz opened around the 0.7545 areas and drifted through into Asia before dropping away on the air strike news falling back to the 0.7520 areas and ranging through to the NYK session in a tight range between the 0.7520-35 areas, NFP saw the market test to the opening levels initially before slipping back again to push through to the 0.7505 areas and then grind through the session to test briefly through to the 0.7495 areas before holding to the close above the 75 cent level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Feb A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.50% | R 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Feb (P) A 104.4 | C 104.6 | P 104.9
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Mar A 3.30% | C 3.30% | P 3.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Feb A 2.20% | C -0.20% | P 2.80% | R 2.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Feb A 21.0B | C 19.4B | P 18.5B
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Mar A 683.0B | C 674.0B | P 668.2B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Feb A -0.70% | C 0.20% | P -0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Feb A 2.80% | C 3.70% | P 3.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Feb A -0.10% | C 0.30% | P -0.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Feb A 3.30% | C 3.90% | P 2.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Feb A -1.70% | C 0.00% | P -0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Feb A -12.5B | C -10.9B | P -10.8B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Mar A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Mar A 19.4K | C 5.7K | P 15.3K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Mar A 6.70% | C 6.70% | P 6.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Mar A 98K | C 177K | P 235K | R 219K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Mar A 4.50% | C 4.70% | P 4.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Mar A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Mar A 61.1 | C 56.3 | P 55
Stay lucky
Andy
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